What are Next Great Disruptors in Aviation ?
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What are Next Great Disruptors in Aviation ?
Aviation has always been an industry where disruptors come along relative qucikly and chnge the market.
The Jet age consigned the propellor aircraft business to history quickly.
We know that in USA the changes in Aviation in 1970's opened the door to a whole new age in Aviation where new companies started up and many older legacy carriers folded.
Since the 1990's the Internet has been the great disruptor where Customers could book direct and in effect consign many travel agents to history very quickly.
The growth in LCC in US and Europe / worldwide has been helped by the internet and the option to offer tailored offers to different markets has helped the continued growth and forced others to follow.
In the last 10 years the Gulf States have poured billions into Aviation in setting up airlines and vast new hubs in an attempt to gain huge market share of aviation. This has been a disruptor that has caused the legacy carriers who relied on Asian destinations for profit a significant problem.
I am wondering what will be the next great disruptor to the Aviation marketplace ?
The Jet age consigned the propellor aircraft business to history quickly.
We know that in USA the changes in Aviation in 1970's opened the door to a whole new age in Aviation where new companies started up and many older legacy carriers folded.
Since the 1990's the Internet has been the great disruptor where Customers could book direct and in effect consign many travel agents to history very quickly.
The growth in LCC in US and Europe / worldwide has been helped by the internet and the option to offer tailored offers to different markets has helped the continued growth and forced others to follow.
In the last 10 years the Gulf States have poured billions into Aviation in setting up airlines and vast new hubs in an attempt to gain huge market share of aviation. This has been a disruptor that has caused the legacy carriers who relied on Asian destinations for profit a significant problem.
I am wondering what will be the next great disruptor to the Aviation marketplace ?
In addition to politicians there are endless KPIs. I have not yet met a KPIs without perverse consequences. Professionals will do the best job possible for the big-picture, but make your boss's bonus rely on a KPIs and we quickly find ourselves chasing them rather than safety, speed, economy, fairness etc.
(KPIs are key performance indicators)
(KPIs are key performance indicators)
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Genuine question, what KPI has caused you such a problem? I know that some people chase some daft metrics but keen to learn why the particular KPI and I bet that's a misnomer, is perverse.
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I could see a rowing back on Open Skies agreements, particularly between countries or blocs where one side has rules on state aid/ownership and the other doesn't; this would cause rather a lot of change.
Non (well realistically just reduced) boom supersonic, even if limited to very small aircraft, would almost inevitably see the start of some ULH premium-only routes and would drastically alter the economics for other longhaul travel and likely the cabin makeup on airlines doing longhaul also.
Non (well realistically just reduced) boom supersonic, even if limited to very small aircraft, would almost inevitably see the start of some ULH premium-only routes and would drastically alter the economics for other longhaul travel and likely the cabin makeup on airlines doing longhaul also.
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A big, long term eruption in Iceland would put the cat amongst the pigeons again I guess
Or a very active sun pumping particles into the atmosphere so we couldn't use levels above say 20,000ft.....................
Or a very active sun pumping particles into the atmosphere so we couldn't use levels above say 20,000ft.....................
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Another external possibility would be another 9/11 or similar that causes a mass drop in consumer sentiment for air travel; which would almost inevitably take out some vulnerable legacies in Europe again - particularly as more have left state hands since. Also a certain large carrier investing heavily in mostly fairly poor condition carriers has a similarity to Swissair prior to 2001...
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Dan Dare, how right you are, planet sized (or larger) ego's seem to be a prerequisite of the idiots running airlines, they have everyone running around chasing mind numbing and plain stoopid KPI's, be that painting aeroplanes or throwing loyal experienced staff on the scrap heap... 
Katla is way overdue, and when it does blow it will be curtains for all North European aviation for months.
Katla is way overdue, and when it does blow it will be curtains for all North European aviation for months.
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The effect of a volcanic eruption would be to (once again) severely reduce the amount of air traffic -
The Atlantic would be hammered - I really think your business would have to be really important to have to take a train from Frankfurt or London to Madrid or Seville and then a flight to Miami
Short haul to the Costa del Sol would also be badly affected
= Airlines going bust and airframe orders cancelled en-masse
Would solve the issue of a third runway at LHR tho'................ we could probably trim it back to a single one.......
The Atlantic would be hammered - I really think your business would have to be really important to have to take a train from Frankfurt or London to Madrid or Seville and then a flight to Miami
Short haul to the Costa del Sol would also be badly affected
= Airlines going bust and airframe orders cancelled en-masse
Would solve the issue of a third runway at LHR tho'................ we could probably trim it back to a single one.......
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The change in the Earth's magnetic field is already starting, with some parts reverse-polarised and a complete flip from pole to pole expected within the next couple of hundred years. Thankfully, GPS and IRS means we'll still be able to navigate advanced aircraft, but magnetic compasses will for some time be useless. Looming sooner are fuel issues, outbreak of large scale war in the Middle East and North Africa, and a return to the Cold War.
On a technological front, high fuel efficiency could see narrow-bodies doing point to point long haul work, and noise reduction will see the end to complete airport curfews.
On a technological front, high fuel efficiency could see narrow-bodies doing point to point long haul work, and noise reduction will see the end to complete airport curfews.
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Interesting question Racedo
Well in Europe I think that if Lord & Master MOL found that by providing a + customer experience that improved profitability, and it needs to! then FR could big a much bigger threat to the legacy airlines, Norwegian customer service standards and FR costs, if possible would be unstoppable.
I suspect that another Iceland Volcano event would have much less impact next time around, apart from a Finnish F??? did any aircraft every discovery any negative effect (MOL was right on that one)
Russia, unlikely return to cold war or even hot one, both side understand the downside risks, but can't loose face.
Terrorism; on going risk, but short lived, the perpetrator have so far been rank amateurs and the intelligence service are getting better
Low cost long haul will happen, but legacy airline will also drive their own economy costs down with new fleets
The big threat will be the oil price, but we are now seeing quantum leaps in car fuel economy and if you can afford to by a Telsa you can forget about it, unfortunately i do not see any viable alternative to oil/biomass based fuel for aircraft, but if we stop using it for road/rail transport it will last for hundreds of years
So on balance i'm positive about aviation, its still the quickest way A-C
I suspect that another Iceland Volcano event would have much less impact next time around, apart from a Finnish F??? did any aircraft every discovery any negative effect (MOL was right on that one)
Russia, unlikely return to cold war or even hot one, both side understand the downside risks, but can't loose face.
Terrorism; on going risk, but short lived, the perpetrator have so far been rank amateurs and the intelligence service are getting better
Low cost long haul will happen, but legacy airline will also drive their own economy costs down with new fleets
The big threat will be the oil price, but we are now seeing quantum leaps in car fuel economy and if you can afford to by a Telsa you can forget about it, unfortunately i do not see any viable alternative to oil/biomass based fuel for aircraft, but if we stop using it for road/rail transport it will last for hundreds of years
So on balance i'm positive about aviation, its still the quickest way A-C
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Originally Posted by Leg:8482394
Dan Dare, how right you are, planet sized (or larger) ego's seem to be a prerequisite of the idiots running airlines, they have everyone running around chasing mind numbing and plain stoopid KPI's, be that painting aeroplanes or throwing loyal experienced staff on the scrap heap...
Katla is way overdue, and when it does blow it will be curtains for all North European aviation for months.
Katla is way overdue, and when it does blow it will be curtains for all North European aviation for months.
Nothing but Hype. Katla won't be blowing up - Period.
Though out of interest what happened to Air traffic when mount St Helens went up ?.
Was there disruption?.
And aren't there some volcanos in Italy which are more dangerous.
If one of those went then All that air corridor up the Italian coast would be a no go.
Thread Starter
Does anybody feel that China or India going big into purchase of Long Haul jets would make a huge impact and kill Gulf carriers ?
or
Were a Hover Take Off and Landing (HTOL) like USMC Osprey to work with a 100 seater jet with a 2000 km range would this change everything ?
or
Were a Hover Take Off and Landing (HTOL) like USMC Osprey to work with a 100 seater jet with a 2000 km range would this change everything ?
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From my perspective there 4 issues; not necessarily in this order;
Continued reduction in number of carriers;
eg like the US consolidation has led to a few mega carriers , costs making new entrants coming in very difficult, fuel prices, growth in aircraft orders driving prices did to supply issues, continued taxation. Overall may lead to dominance in specific markets and hence price impact.
Decline in the number of airports did to viability issues with small regional airports ;
As we see decline in airline numbers, and for many of the factors mentioned above airlines become much more selective with airport and route selections, unwilling to fly on routes that are marginal and less profitable than options ex larger airports, will result in smaller regional airports closing or bring reduced to use for general aviation or with reduced opening hours.
Russia;
Let's see where this whole episode pans out with Ukraine...
Ebola;
The spread of this unmanageable disease without a cure could have significant ramifications on the movement of people if it spreads beyond specific parts of the African continent ...
Interesting topic and some creative thinking!
Continued reduction in number of carriers;
eg like the US consolidation has led to a few mega carriers , costs making new entrants coming in very difficult, fuel prices, growth in aircraft orders driving prices did to supply issues, continued taxation. Overall may lead to dominance in specific markets and hence price impact.
Decline in the number of airports did to viability issues with small regional airports ;
As we see decline in airline numbers, and for many of the factors mentioned above airlines become much more selective with airport and route selections, unwilling to fly on routes that are marginal and less profitable than options ex larger airports, will result in smaller regional airports closing or bring reduced to use for general aviation or with reduced opening hours.
Russia;
Let's see where this whole episode pans out with Ukraine...
Ebola;
The spread of this unmanageable disease without a cure could have significant ramifications on the movement of people if it spreads beyond specific parts of the African continent ...
Interesting topic and some creative thinking!