Interesting question Racedo
Well in Europe I think that if Lord & Master MOL found that by providing a + customer experience that improved profitability, and it needs to! then FR could big a much bigger threat to the legacy airlines, Norwegian customer service standards and FR costs, if possible would be unstoppable.
I suspect that another Iceland Volcano event would have much less impact next time around, apart from a Finnish F??? did any aircraft every discovery any negative effect (MOL was right on that one)
Russia, unlikely return to cold war or even hot one, both side understand the downside risks, but can't loose face.
Terrorism; on going risk, but short lived, the perpetrator have so far been rank amateurs and the intelligence service are getting better
Low cost long haul will happen, but legacy airline will also drive their own economy costs down with new fleets
The big threat will be the oil price, but we are now seeing quantum leaps in car fuel economy and if you can afford to by a Telsa you can forget about it, unfortunately i do not see any viable alternative to oil/biomass based fuel for aircraft, but if we stop using it for road/rail transport it will last for hundreds of years
So on balance i'm positive about aviation, its still the quickest way A-C