Heathrow expansion won't happen
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fairdeal frank wrote:-
Quote: "they are not leaving LHR. You don't say.
No carrier will voluntarily move its operations from an operational LHR to a Thames Estuary airport, given a choice. But that's not what this is about."
Exactly, and they cannot be forced to.
they may change their minds on final approach when the place is covered in 100,000 houses
Quote: "they are not leaving LHR. You don't say.
No carrier will voluntarily move its operations from an operational LHR to a Thames Estuary airport, given a choice. But that's not what this is about."
Exactly, and they cannot be forced to.
they may change their minds on final approach when the place is covered in 100,000 houses
they may change their minds on final approach when the place is covered in 100,000 houses
The UK is in danger of being marginalised in Europe because of airport capacity and taxation. If nothing is done, we'll become the equivalent of the station at the end of the branch line, with shuttles by air/train/coach to mainland hubs.
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quote: "I don't think anyone has won or lost any argument.
We have simply expressed different opinions on what may or not be possible/likely at some indeterminate point in the future.
And when some indeterminate point in the future arrives, we'll know who was right."
Agreed of course, DaveReidUK, plenty of discussion yet to be had, and a good job too. Let's hope that when the indeterminate point in the future arrives, we are all still alive!
quote: "Long before that they'll have gone elsewhere, not necessarily in the UK. BA's transfer traffic was approaching 50% in 2007 - if you're going to be forced into an airport in the North Sea somewhere, why not go a further 30 miles to another country, maybe one which is expanding existing airports and has no APD...?
The UK is in danger of being marginalised in Europe because of airport capacity and taxation. If nothing is done, we'll become the equivalent of the station at the end of the branch line, with shuttles by air/train/coach to mainland hubs."
Good point, FullWings, had forgotten about it momentarily: current (and future?) levels of APD are playing an equally important part in destroying the UK aviation industry.
We have simply expressed different opinions on what may or not be possible/likely at some indeterminate point in the future.
And when some indeterminate point in the future arrives, we'll know who was right."
Agreed of course, DaveReidUK, plenty of discussion yet to be had, and a good job too. Let's hope that when the indeterminate point in the future arrives, we are all still alive!
quote: "Long before that they'll have gone elsewhere, not necessarily in the UK. BA's transfer traffic was approaching 50% in 2007 - if you're going to be forced into an airport in the North Sea somewhere, why not go a further 30 miles to another country, maybe one which is expanding existing airports and has no APD...?
The UK is in danger of being marginalised in Europe because of airport capacity and taxation. If nothing is done, we'll become the equivalent of the station at the end of the branch line, with shuttles by air/train/coach to mainland hubs."
Good point, FullWings, had forgotten about it momentarily: current (and future?) levels of APD are playing an equally important part in destroying the UK aviation industry.
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 21st Sep 2012 at 15:59. Reason: typo
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Until yesterday I at least thought there was a theoretical chance Gatwick could be used as a second hub.
Then my brother, who lives in Ealing, killed the argument dead. He said he and his mrs were staying overnight in a hotel near the airport for an early morning flight the next day - public transport to the airport was just too much hassle for them.
From Ealing?
Then my brother, who lives in Ealing, killed the argument dead. He said he and his mrs were staying overnight in a hotel near the airport for an early morning flight the next day - public transport to the airport was just too much hassle for them.
From Ealing?
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Well if Gatwick became a "perfect hub", why would public transport matter as all the pax would be transiting...?
Even if Gatwick, Fantasy Island, BHX, or Blackpool (NW coast)??? - were to become the biggest hub in Europe at the time of opening, you still need to deal with O&D traffic. There is no airport in the world that only operates on a hub basis with ZERO O&D. There are two railway stations in the British Isles that work this way, but they are very unique cases!
Even if we take somewhere like DXB as your definition of a "perfect hub" - on the basis it has 380s coming in from Europe and 380s going straight out to east Asia and Australasia, aswell as smaller a/c - there is still a significant city that has been built on the back of this airport existing.
And when some indeterminate point in the future arrives, we'll know who was right.
there has only been one enquiry that looked building an airport in the Thames Estuary
it will mean that London and the City will be well on the way to becoming irrelevant backwaters
The cost of fuel, and the pollution it causes are two huge challenges the industry faces. My personal view is that in the long run, the market for flights within the mature European and North American markets will grow slower than the rest of the economy. The emerging markets will continue to emerge, but they will still only make up a small proportion of the pie.
Now this is where there is an element of crystal ball gazing, but we have to go with the trends we know are happening. A third runway at LHR would allow for an element of growth, whilst the other airports could also continue to handle the loco traffic.
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Had David Cameron won an outright majority in the last election...IMO plans would now be underway for a third runway at Heathrow..
He would not have been able to stand up to his backbenchers who want the extension..Simply because he would have not had the Liberal baggage round his neck, and running scared of a coalition split if Cameron now backs a third runway at Heathrow.
He used this as an excuse to silence the pro extension faction.
In the very unlikely event that Cameron or his successor wins outright in the next election, you IMO can bet Heathrow will get it's runway..Reason is all the other alternatives are crackers, like the floating runways.
There will be another coalition most probably after the next general election..Heavens knows what the make up of the UK government may be.
If the leaning is left of middle(Liberal) - Heathrow won't get it's runway, Boris has no chance with his riverport..So that will IMO leave the UK falling behind in world aviation.
The decision on Heathrow's third runway, or for that matter any major scheme like Boris island, won't be based on the need for more capacity - it will be based solely for political expediency.
Point of my post..While we have the current political set up. I can't see any appetite for upsetting London voters.
I could be wrong though, who knows what News 24 may tell us tomorrow
Goes without saying - i think the only viable solution to this argument that benefits London and the UK is general in time.Is a third runway at Heathrow.
He would not have been able to stand up to his backbenchers who want the extension..Simply because he would have not had the Liberal baggage round his neck, and running scared of a coalition split if Cameron now backs a third runway at Heathrow.
He used this as an excuse to silence the pro extension faction.
In the very unlikely event that Cameron or his successor wins outright in the next election, you IMO can bet Heathrow will get it's runway..Reason is all the other alternatives are crackers, like the floating runways.
There will be another coalition most probably after the next general election..Heavens knows what the make up of the UK government may be.
If the leaning is left of middle(Liberal) - Heathrow won't get it's runway, Boris has no chance with his riverport..So that will IMO leave the UK falling behind in world aviation.
The decision on Heathrow's third runway, or for that matter any major scheme like Boris island, won't be based on the need for more capacity - it will be based solely for political expediency.
Point of my post..While we have the current political set up. I can't see any appetite for upsetting London voters.
I could be wrong though, who knows what News 24 may tell us tomorrow
Goes without saying - i think the only viable solution to this argument that benefits London and the UK is general in time.Is a third runway at Heathrow.
Reason is all the other alternatives are crackers, like the floating runways.
Are all the other alternatives crackers ? Or specifically floating runways ?
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DaveReidUK
Make up your mind.
Are all the other alternatives crackers ? Or specifically floating runways ?
Are all the other alternatives crackers ? Or specifically floating runways ?
The floating runways are a none starter IMO,and expanding any airport has it's own problems..So it may as well be Heathrow.
As you well know DaveReidUK - The main point of my post was that supply and demand would no enter the equation..Heathrow is little more than a political football.
if any other alternatives to expansion at Heathrow is viable. then I would be the first to want to know which and why - DaveReidUK.
With respect..I suggest you look at my post, then look at the real world..Then tell me why decisions on Heathrow..Are not politically motivated.
The floating runways are a none starter IMO, and expanding any airport has it's own problems..So it may as well be Heathrow.
You could equally well have written:
"The floating runways are a none starter IMO [agreed]
and expanding any airport has it's own problems.. [agreed]
So it may as well be a new (non-floating) airport in the Thames Estuary".
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Quote: "Had David Cameron won an outright majority in the last election...IMO plans would now be underway for a third runway at Heathrow..
He would not have been able to stand up to his backbenchers who want the extension..Simply because he would have not had the Liberal baggage round his neck, and running scared of a coalition split if Cameron now backs a third runway at Heathrow.
He used this as an excuse to silence the pro extension faction.
In the very unlikely event that Cameron or his successor wins outright in the next election, you IMO can bet Heathrow will get it's runway..Reason is all the other alternatives are crackers, like the floating runways."
Exactly right and no contradiction. All the other proposals are either nonsense, or won't address the problem, i.e. the country's hub operating at 99+% capacity, or both.
Don't think Cameron is neccessarily against a third rwy, especially as the alternative is a greenfield site near his constituency. The vanity project fantasy island stands no chance. Cameron gives the impression of a man dead scared of the Libdems "walking", so appeases them at every opportunity.
We all know that the Libdems are going nowhere, it's their first sniff of governent for 100 years! Cameron is obviously scared rigid of leading a minority government. Who knows why, it would have been the most sensible way forward.
Quote: "There will be another coalition most probably after the next general election..Heavens knows what the make up of the UK government may be."
What a depressing thought. No, please, no more coalitions!
He would not have been able to stand up to his backbenchers who want the extension..Simply because he would have not had the Liberal baggage round his neck, and running scared of a coalition split if Cameron now backs a third runway at Heathrow.
He used this as an excuse to silence the pro extension faction.
In the very unlikely event that Cameron or his successor wins outright in the next election, you IMO can bet Heathrow will get it's runway..Reason is all the other alternatives are crackers, like the floating runways."
Exactly right and no contradiction. All the other proposals are either nonsense, or won't address the problem, i.e. the country's hub operating at 99+% capacity, or both.
Don't think Cameron is neccessarily against a third rwy, especially as the alternative is a greenfield site near his constituency. The vanity project fantasy island stands no chance. Cameron gives the impression of a man dead scared of the Libdems "walking", so appeases them at every opportunity.
We all know that the Libdems are going nowhere, it's their first sniff of governent for 100 years! Cameron is obviously scared rigid of leading a minority government. Who knows why, it would have been the most sensible way forward.
Quote: "There will be another coalition most probably after the next general election..Heavens knows what the make up of the UK government may be."
What a depressing thought. No, please, no more coalitions!
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 26th Sep 2012 at 11:03.
I very much doubt Labour would go into a Coalition with the Lib Dems, considering how they've sold out to the Tories this time around. It'll either be a minority government and/or another election.
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Now that the Conservatives aren't going to be able to change the electoral boundaries and reduce the seats in the Commons the likelihood is a Labour victory at the moment, with an implosion of Lib Dem seats. Since Labour supported the 3rd runway when last in government it wouldn't take much to support it again. But Eddie boy is more left wing than Blair and Brown were, so who knows......
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Quote: "Given current polls the next Govt will be either Labour or a Labour/Lib Dem coalition"
Unlikely to be an early election, so much can change in the next few years.
Quote: "I very much doubt Labour would go into a Coalition with the Lib Dems, considering how they've sold out to the Tories this time around. It'll either be a minority government and/or another election."
It would be difficult for Libdem credibility, they would have to reverse policies that they were instrumental in creating.
Two examples off the top of my head: the NHS reforms and the monumental waste of time and money that is elected police commissioners, neither of which would not have been possible without Libdem acquiesence.
It would also be difficult for Labour. They have, and will, ram the message home that the Libdems are "the Conservatives little helpers", which of course they are. "Vote Libdem, elect a Tory", etc.etc.. Also how could Labour keep a discredited party, recently rejected by the electorate, in power?
Labour approved LHR expansion before, they could easily reverse the Conservative reversal of their origianl decision, especially if Howard Davies's commission favours this.
Phew, finally got back on the thread.
Quote: "Now that the Conservatives aren't going to be able to change the electoral boundaries and reduce the seats in the Commons the likelihood is a Labour victory at the moment, with an implosion of Lib Dem seats. Since Labour supported the 3rd runway when last in government it wouldn't take much to support it again. But Eddie boy is more left wing than Blair and Brown were, so who knows..."
It's not a question of "left" or "right". Clegg, Cable, Greening, Goldsmith, Johnson and the entire Labour leadership can hardly be described as "left wing".
Milliband is just as "new" Labour as Blair and brown (i.e. the party of the metropolitan elite and the chattering classes).
Don't believe the hype that Ed Milliband got the leadership because of the Unions, it was because of the AV voting system (the one Clegg tried to foist on us).
Among the first choices, David Milliband was the clear winner, Ed only won once the lower preference choices of the defeated candidates were included.
Unlikely to be an early election, so much can change in the next few years.
Quote: "I very much doubt Labour would go into a Coalition with the Lib Dems, considering how they've sold out to the Tories this time around. It'll either be a minority government and/or another election."
It would be difficult for Libdem credibility, they would have to reverse policies that they were instrumental in creating.
Two examples off the top of my head: the NHS reforms and the monumental waste of time and money that is elected police commissioners, neither of which would not have been possible without Libdem acquiesence.
It would also be difficult for Labour. They have, and will, ram the message home that the Libdems are "the Conservatives little helpers", which of course they are. "Vote Libdem, elect a Tory", etc.etc.. Also how could Labour keep a discredited party, recently rejected by the electorate, in power?
Labour approved LHR expansion before, they could easily reverse the Conservative reversal of their origianl decision, especially if Howard Davies's commission favours this.
Phew, finally got back on the thread.
Quote: "Now that the Conservatives aren't going to be able to change the electoral boundaries and reduce the seats in the Commons the likelihood is a Labour victory at the moment, with an implosion of Lib Dem seats. Since Labour supported the 3rd runway when last in government it wouldn't take much to support it again. But Eddie boy is more left wing than Blair and Brown were, so who knows..."
It's not a question of "left" or "right". Clegg, Cable, Greening, Goldsmith, Johnson and the entire Labour leadership can hardly be described as "left wing".
Milliband is just as "new" Labour as Blair and brown (i.e. the party of the metropolitan elite and the chattering classes).
Don't believe the hype that Ed Milliband got the leadership because of the Unions, it was because of the AV voting system (the one Clegg tried to foist on us).
Among the first choices, David Milliband was the clear winner, Ed only won once the lower preference choices of the defeated candidates were included.
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 27th Sep 2012 at 21:01.
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We all know that the Libdems are going nowhere, it's their first sniff of governent for 100 years!
The problem is that, for now, they are still a party of power, even if their only real influence has been on the fringe issues. Sadly, there are enough Tories who are sympathetic to the anti-Heathrow cause to make the Lib Dems position here the mainstream one.
There is little chance that Milbland will change his position on Heathrow, and he is so dull that he is unlikely to do a Kinnock on election eve, and you'll never catch him calling anyone a Pleb, even if he is to paternalistic academic elitism what Mitchell is to Toffs.
If anything will get Deadhead Ed to change, perhaps it will come down to offering a differentiator between his party and the Tories. With Cameron gone post-2015, Boris doing the seat swap with Zac and then becoming leader, the Tory position would default to fantasy island, unless they actually take some serious financial advice on the matter. The way they are going "full steam ahead" with the first phase of HS2, which is very dubious on its own, suggests that sensible financial thinking might not happen - even by then.
So the best case scenario for Heathrow would be that Labour realise that they can't just dither for another 5 years - especially not as that's exactly what Brown did. So given a chance to separate themselves from Boris, who being personally popular in an unpopular party is the nemesis of EM, they realise the only option is to back Heathrow.
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Given current polls the next Govt will be either Labour or a Labour/Lib Dem coalition
not much chance of LHR expansion there then
not much chance of LHR expansion there then
The fact that Ed has the charisma of a dung beetle is another...The polls are showing a Labour victory at the moment...
My bet is a Tory/Lib pact again..Yes - Clegg has got long pants now he has grown up.
It's not impossible that UKIP will have some say in the forming of a government.
Not that long ago people know what Brown did handing over our cash to the banks..The see what a mess Cameron is doing to the armed forces and institutions are being starved of cash.
One think is certain, the outcome of the next election is not...I reckon there will be a farce of a government..But also I think Heathrow will get it's third runway, as when politician have to address the lack of capacity - There will not be enough cash or will for a new airport.
But Eddie boy is more left wing than Blair and Brown were, so who knows......
With Ed on the third runway..It will be aye or naye, depending on who asked the question.
BTW..Why Cameron did not go it alone is beyond me...Wilson led a minority government, and won the following election, with ease.
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The fact that Ed has the charisma of a dung beetle is another...The polls are showing a Labour victory at the moment...
Correct - polls showing Labour victory, ditto bookies. But the polls also show Dead Ed is the least preferred of the leaders.
It's not impossible that UKIP will have some say in the forming of a government.
BTW..Why Cameron did not go it alone is beyond me
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Highly unlikely. They still can't get their act together, despite repeated press demands for a referendum on leaving the EU.
We are in a coalition now, what's next I would not like to guess, maybe Cameron austerity will pay dividends..I doubt that without growth.
Cameron puts a chap in charge with sympathy for a third runway, then promptly says - no definitely not. We know Clegg does not want one, that's why Cameron dare not say he does.
Ed..i am not sure he knows there is a problem.
I still thing there will be a 3rd runway at Heathrow..probably Cameron will dismantle our nuclear deterrent and abolish the House of Lords, to get Cleggy to agree.