carlisle/southend
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CAX-SEN
Will it be cheaper than the train?
Train vs. air again (yawn), it's not a question of either/or. Realisticly, the more travel options the better. Will it work? One way to find out!
Good luck to them!
Train vs. air again (yawn), it's not a question of either/or. Realisticly, the more travel options the better. Will it work? One way to find out!
Good luck to them!
As far as the viability of any particular route is concerned, my experience is that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the success or otherwise of any but the most obvious candidates, unless there is recent historic evidence to go by. Sometimes an unlikely link between two city pairs can achieve commercially acceptable returns while another may look more promising, yet fails to perform. There are so many factors involved that sometimes you just have to try it and see.
In the case of CAX-SEN at least the costs of establishing the route can be minimised due to the dual ownership of the airports by Stobart and its shareholding in Aer Arann.
In the case of CAX-SEN at least the costs of establishing the route can be minimised due to the dual ownership of the airports by Stobart and its shareholding in Aer Arann.
I believe the company was called Euroair, or something very similar.
Famously one of the television channels (C4 I think) ran a comedy programme at that time which included a spoof on airline sexist advertising with the slogan "Fly Euroair and you can sleep with our air hostesses". Evidently the programme makers were unaware that an airline by that name actually existed. It seemed to cause some consternation among the Euroair cabin crews.
Famously one of the television channels (C4 I think) ran a comedy programme at that time which included a spoof on airline sexist advertising with the slogan "Fly Euroair and you can sleep with our air hostesses". Evidently the programme makers were unaware that an airline by that name actually existed. It seemed to cause some consternation among the Euroair cabin crews.
Last edited by Tagron; 13th Jul 2012 at 15:38.
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Yes, I can confirm it was Euroair using an HS.748 (Budgie) on the route to Heathrow from Carlisle. My late lamented(?) boss went on a jolly in 1988 I think but cannot be sure about the date. When he returned to the office he said he would give it a few months which proved correct as he thought the catchment area around Carlisle was not sufficient to justify the service and that was when it went into Heathrow. Unfortunately I have to agree with him even more so now when the London terminus is Southend (nothing against Southend mind you just trying to be realistic).
Last edited by compton3bravo; 13th Jul 2012 at 16:06.
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I wonder what the ratio is of people who would choose LHR over SEN and vice versa? (talking domestic flight).
It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen.
It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen.
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Unfortunately I have to agree with him even more so now when the London terminus is Southend (nothing against Southend mind you just trying to be realistic).
Carlisle has been attempted a couple of times; Autair did so in the late 1960s as well, which also like Euroair's later effort, extended to Dundee; a sort of chaining all the least likely points together.
There's some business traffic on offer to the Cumbrian industrial coast (Workington/Whitehaven), which are otherwise an impossibility to get to from London in a sensible time by any means. Went with a colleague to Whitehaven and he asked me what was the closest airport to there; was not too amused when I said Ronaldsway, because he actually looked it up
I believe that Scot Airways some years ago looked at a Do328 service from London City to Carlisle; better aircraft (smaller, cheaper, faster) and a better destination than one down at the wrong end of Essex. If they felt it was not worthwhile I wonder what has changed.
There's some business traffic on offer to the Cumbrian industrial coast (Workington/Whitehaven), which are otherwise an impossibility to get to from London in a sensible time by any means. Went with a colleague to Whitehaven and he asked me what was the closest airport to there; was not too amused when I said Ronaldsway, because he actually looked it up
I believe that Scot Airways some years ago looked at a Do328 service from London City to Carlisle; better aircraft (smaller, cheaper, faster) and a better destination than one down at the wrong end of Essex. If they felt it was not worthwhile I wonder what has changed.
Last edited by WHBM; 13th Jul 2012 at 17:36.
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To not build on the airport because of its location is ridiculous. If you apply that logic they should shut the M6 down. Or you could think of it this way. Within 25 miles of Southend you have some of the richest people on the planet all looking for a great getaway.
Beautiful countryside, 2 national parks and Hadrians wall on its doorstep.Hope it works.
Beautiful countryside, 2 national parks and Hadrians wall on its doorstep.Hope it works.
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As far as the viability of any particular route is concerned, my experience is that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the success or otherwise of any but the most obvious candidates, unless there is recent historic evidence to go by.
If the proposal was for LCY, that would at least be much closer to the city / East End / Dockland, but given the costs involved, where would the yields come from?
FDF - I agree choice is good, but the WCML isn't going anywhere. There is one scenario which could help the route - as VT bosses know that every few minutes they can shave off the EUS-GC train time, they will relish any opportunity to remove stops. Afaik, the fastest current train just stops at Carlisle. With HS2, most stops above Preston would almost certainly go, but that isn't happening until 2026,7,8...............
The irony could be that the removal of the Lake District stops makes flying to Carlisle more attractive, even if the train would still stop there!
But the whole point surely is that no airline would be contemplating CAX-SEN or CAX-anywhere else but for the Stobart involvement. Would Aer Arann be interested without that involvement ? Of course not. They would want to deploy their resources on routes that would appear to offer a more certain chance of a satisfactory return.
So the question that arises is what degree of support are Stobarts offering to RE to make the operation economically attractive to RE ? Stobarts will already have to support a loss making airport whose losses will only increase once it is improved to a standard that will permit scheduled air services. Will they want to underwrite a loss-making route too ? Or will they view the contribution from the route as potentially improving the overall finances ? These questions I guess will be viewed in the light of the economics of the distribution centre, and only Stobarts will know the answer to that.
Or is it all window dressing that will disappear if and when planning permission for the haulage depot is obtained ?
The planning authority could demand a legally binding agreement about the development and operation of the airport but they surely cannot compel an airline to operate from it.
So the question that arises is what degree of support are Stobarts offering to RE to make the operation economically attractive to RE ? Stobarts will already have to support a loss making airport whose losses will only increase once it is improved to a standard that will permit scheduled air services. Will they want to underwrite a loss-making route too ? Or will they view the contribution from the route as potentially improving the overall finances ? These questions I guess will be viewed in the light of the economics of the distribution centre, and only Stobarts will know the answer to that.
Or is it all window dressing that will disappear if and when planning permission for the haulage depot is obtained ?
The planning authority could demand a legally binding agreement about the development and operation of the airport but they surely cannot compel an airline to operate from it.
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Quote: "I wonder what the ratio is of people who would choose LHR over SEN and vice versa? (talking domestic flight)."
Depends on where you live. For me its LHR everytime.
Quote: "It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen."
Maybe, let's hope so!
Quote: "We do have some relevant historic evidence - STN-NCL U2 gone, LHR-MME BE gone. Did BE have a pop at LGW-MME couple of years back, or was that just LBA? Either way, short lived.
LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.
Quote: "If the proposal was for LCY, that would at least be much closer to the city / East End / Dockland, but given the costs involved, where would the yields come from?"
And if the proposal was for LHR, there would be connectivity to the world. Give it a chance, one has to start somewhere!
Quote: "FDF - I agree choice is good, but the WCML isn't going anywhere. There is one scenario which could help the route - as VT bosses know that every few minutes they can shave off the EUS-GC train time, they will relish any opportunity to remove stops. Afaik, the fastest current train just stops at Carlisle. With HS2, most stops above Preston would almost certainly go, but that isn't happening until 2026,7,8..............."
There is one weekday train/day that does London to Glasgow with just one stop, and takes 4 hours 8 minutes. The stop is Preston. Curiously, there is no equivelant in the opposite direction.
Forget about HS2, it's unlikely to be built, and even if it is, it's going nowhere near Carlisle or Glasgow.
Depends on where you live. For me its LHR everytime.
Quote: "It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen."
Maybe, let's hope so!
Quote: "We do have some relevant historic evidence - STN-NCL U2 gone, LHR-MME BE gone. Did BE have a pop at LGW-MME couple of years back, or was that just LBA? Either way, short lived.
LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.
Quote: "If the proposal was for LCY, that would at least be much closer to the city / East End / Dockland, but given the costs involved, where would the yields come from?"
And if the proposal was for LHR, there would be connectivity to the world. Give it a chance, one has to start somewhere!
Quote: "FDF - I agree choice is good, but the WCML isn't going anywhere. There is one scenario which could help the route - as VT bosses know that every few minutes they can shave off the EUS-GC train time, they will relish any opportunity to remove stops. Afaik, the fastest current train just stops at Carlisle. With HS2, most stops above Preston would almost certainly go, but that isn't happening until 2026,7,8..............."
There is one weekday train/day that does London to Glasgow with just one stop, and takes 4 hours 8 minutes. The stop is Preston. Curiously, there is no equivelant in the opposite direction.
Forget about HS2, it's unlikely to be built, and even if it is, it's going nowhere near Carlisle or Glasgow.
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LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.
And if the proposal was for LHR, there would be connectivity to the world. Give it a chance, one has to start somewhere!
Population of "wider" CAX = 100, Cumbria 500k, a few more in D&G. Yet there is also little evidence of serious yield generators, plus the fact all these other places don't have a realistic train alternative.
Granted, 3h25 isn't lightning fast, but most Marseille-Paris trains take that sort of time, and the train still has 75%+ of that (far larger) market.
Forget about HS2, it's unlikely to be built, and even if it is, it's going nowhere near Carlisle or Glasgow.
If HS2 does get built as planned, come 2026, the new "classic compatible" trains will be slower than the Pendolini above Lichfield. Thus there will be huge pressure to cut stops, especially given the claim that the train will take 81% of the Scotland market!
That is obviously way into the future. In the meantime, don't be surprised to see more Lake District region stops being removed. Yet even if this does happen, and an hourly Carlisle stop becomes two hourly, the train still wins on frequency.
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LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.
Yes, but since then BA have restored LBA. Any suggestion they will bring MME back?
Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX.
Regarding the offshores, GCI will never have its LHR link back with BA again due to runway restrictions... a Cityflyer (E70 or leased S20) service from LCY might well work. JER probably won't see its LHR link restored due to the LGW operation being so well established - although I could see that happening if they choose not to replace the 737 operation (unlikely in itself)... then an LHR-JER route might well be restarted.
Ultimately it is clear that BA is only interested in using slots on domestics which will really profit them. It's hard to doubt that LBA-LHR will be a success; the BE route from LGW had nowhere near the connection possibilities (there were no BA codeshares on BE routes out of LGW at that time) and still achieved reasonable loads - beancounters at Exeter stopped it and the DUS route because of punitive charges against smaller aircraft (DH4s, AT7s) at LGW. Apologies for that little digression...
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Quote: "Yes, but since then BA have restored LBA. Any suggestion they will bring MME back?"
Good question. This one isn't so clear-cut, BA are at NCL, BD wasn't.
Quote: "Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX."
Agreed, there are some ahead in the queue before CAX, unless.....
Quote: "I was just painting a scenario in which the route might work. Remove the train service, and Carlisle becomes a much more viable route."
Exactly, the HS2-capable trains will be "slow" north of Birmingham, they will need to compensate for this. They are also going the long way round (via Birmingham), so need to compensate for this too. So yes, stops will be eliminated.
Quote: "That is obviously way into the future. In the meantime, don't be surprised to see more Lake District region stops being removed. Yet even if this does happen, and an hourly Carlisle stop becomes two hourly, the train still wins on frequency."
The removal of the Lake District region stops and the reduction of Carlisle stops makes an air link more viable.
Yes, the train clearly wins on frequency, but does it win on time? Yes, at present it does for those just going to London.
But does the train win on price?
Good question. This one isn't so clear-cut, BA are at NCL, BD wasn't.
Quote: "Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX."
Agreed, there are some ahead in the queue before CAX, unless.....
Quote: "I was just painting a scenario in which the route might work. Remove the train service, and Carlisle becomes a much more viable route."
Exactly, the HS2-capable trains will be "slow" north of Birmingham, they will need to compensate for this. They are also going the long way round (via Birmingham), so need to compensate for this too. So yes, stops will be eliminated.
Quote: "That is obviously way into the future. In the meantime, don't be surprised to see more Lake District region stops being removed. Yet even if this does happen, and an hourly Carlisle stop becomes two hourly, the train still wins on frequency."
The removal of the Lake District region stops and the reduction of Carlisle stops makes an air link more viable.
Yes, the train clearly wins on frequency, but does it win on time? Yes, at present it does for those just going to London.
But does the train win on price?
Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 13th Jul 2012 at 23:50.