Birmingham solves Heathrow's capacity problem

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by EuroWings

Does any other country in Europe have quite so many airports with long haul as we do? Look at Emirates, they serve GLA, NCL, MAN, BHX....

To me, that demonstrates demand from the UK regions. This is demand which is not catered for by BA/VS via LHR .

This demand is handled quite nicely by BA. Last time I looked, Glasgow, Newcastle and Manchester were all served by BA operating to London Heathrow T5, from where you can connect on BA to pretty much every mainstream destination in Europe and the world, with no more changes than you need to do with Emirates (unless you are physically travelling to Dubai itself). In fact the BA service from each of these regional airports to Heathrow is the highest frequency service out of these airports.

Emirates has made a niche in selling to people who buy only on price (and presumably are thin as well so they don't notice the 10-across seating squashed into their 777s, or don't notice the hell-hole that is Dubai connections in the middle of the night, with half of Africa and Asia sleeping on the terminal floor all around you). There will always be those who go shopping at Asda just for price, that doesn't mean that Waitrose, M&S, Morrisons etc have no role in the shopping world.

[EuroWings]

This demand is handled quite nicely by BA. Last time I looked, Glasgow, Newcastle and Manchester were all served by BA operating to London Heathrow T5, from where you can connect on BA to pretty much every mainstream destination in Europe and the world, with no more changes than you need to do with Emirates (unless you are physically travelling to Dubai itself). In fact the BA service from each of these regional airports to Heathrow is the highest frequency service out of these airports.

Unless of course your connection involves a bus transfer from T5 to T3, which it will do for some connections or Oneworld/codeshare flights. BA cannot offer 1-stop services from the regions to Australia either, which is quite a significant market. Not that they ever could, but it's a plus point for the Gulf-based airlines.

I am not saying BA are not offering the services, just that the Gulf airlines have taken a large bite out of the regional market compared to when they were smaller players.

Emirates has made a niche in selling to people who buy only on price (and presumably are thin as well so they don't notice the 10-across seating squashed into their 777s, or don't notice the hell-hole that is Dubai connections in the middle of the night, with half of Africa and Asia sleeping on the terminal floor all around you). There will always be those who go shopping at Asda just for price, that doesn't mean that Waitrose, M&S, Morrisons etc have no role in the shopping world.

Of course, there are a lot of price sensitive consumers in today's market. However, if you think that Etihad, Emirates and Qatar fill their frequencies from Manchester with passengers solely in this category, you would be wrong. I am not going to debate about which airlines offer the better product, because everyone has their preferences, but I don't think BA is all that special. For many, it's about convenience as well.

[GayFriendly]

That is the problem with those on this forum that say BHX should abandon its
long haul hopes and just stick to short hall targets.There are only a small
number of short hauls left not served from BHX that airlines would say are
viable for them

Fair point and yes I agree with you - year round MAD is the only one that springs out, possibly WAW although there are a few leisure and seasonal routes that am sure could do well but then you have the problem of aircraft sitting about doing nothing in winter (altho this does not seem to be a problem for FR!) and maximising yield as of course not many of us are flush with cash to spend on a random leisure jetaway weekend anymore.

I don't for a moment think that BHX should not have ambition in long haul development and have never said that. I think that the runway extension is a very valuable investment and asset for the airport too (should have been done decades ago but that's another story!). However, I worry that this too is a limited market and I can only think of a handful of scheduled destinations that realistically could work right now.

I can see why PK is focusing on the current and future shortcomings of LHR in terms of capacity (especially with the well documented leakage of pax to that airport from the West Midlands) but am concerned that BHX is basing future growth and success on a perceived overspill from another airport, the volume of which no one knows. However times, government policies and the aviation industry change very quickly so who knows, to expand and add frequencies perhaps airlines at LHR will have no choice in the future but to look elsewhere in which case BHX will be well placed (but then so is STN): At present though I just do not see long haul at BHX following the runway extension as the major driver of growth in airlines, destinations or pax that PK is hanging his hat on - that's not to say though that they should not be going for it and I wish them every success. If Virgin, American, Air China, Cathay, Thai or any other major long haul player pitches up in BHX in 2014 once the extension is finished then I will eat a very big slice of humble pie

[skyman771]

or don't notice the hell-hole that is Dubai connections in the middle of the night, with half of Africa and Asia sleeping on the terminal floor all around you

Misinformation!! presumably based upon an historic experience Tunnel vision, perhaps you should do more travelling before generalising on the customer experience at DXB or indeed anywhere else.
For your information & indeed anyone else reading this thread the situation at DXB is, since they increased capacity with terminal 3 several years ago, no better or worse than most other international airports. What you should have noted is that there has been for ages a shortage of arrival gates available in the small hours, which add considerably to the processing time.
However your analogy has about the same impact as to stating that domestic transfers are horrendous at LHR, when we all know that things improved significantly for the better upon the opening of T5

[WHBM]

Originally Posted by skyman771

presumably based upon an historic experience .. perhaps you should do more travelling before generalising on the customer experience at DXB or indeed anywhere else.

As we have spent the last 12 months setting up an office in the city there, and I've been through there half a dozen times in this time, I wonder how much more travelling it's thought I should do .......

The "new" (actually some years old now) Terminal 3 there is only landside, the two main terminals are joined up as one airside, which is where the bulk of the sleepers seem to be.

It's just so pleasant when returning to step inside the BA aircraft there

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Don't forget BRS and BFS with transatlantic connections to EWR, LCY with transatlantic connections to JFK, ABZ with a link to GYD, and LBA with links to ISB and LHE. Limited longhaul, admittedly, but it deserves to be counted. Then there are several airports with longhaul charter/holiday flights to be considered as well."

Apologies, forgot EDI also with links to EWR!

Quote: "Which I still believe will be a tall order in developing long haul routes to the degree that BHX will become a viable alternative hub to LHR"

Correct, it ain't going to happen, but a small scale hub at BHX and/or GLA may be possible, as BE appear to be doing at MAN quite successfully.

[nigel osborne]

Gayfriendly

Yes agree with virtually all of your assessment.

Madrid, Oslo, Warsaw, Helsinki,Vienna, Budapest I would say are the main cities perhaps BHX could get in the next few years, after those, struggling.

Long Haul... well short term goals.. has to be Las Vegas, Orlando, San Fransisco perhaps, if they can get Virgin to come in.Possibly a cargo route to China and India re JLR cargo.

However as I keep saying the runway extension once down, is their forever so its medium to long term its mostly aimed at, not that the financiers will want to here that !

Nigel

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Up until 2008 Virgin used to provide an excellent non stop coach service from Watford Jnct to Heathrow and back at a very reasonable price. I would catch a train from Birmingham New Street and arrive at LHR within 2 hours."

Yes, an excellent link, crazy isn't it! They also cutback on the number of fast trains stopping at Watford, so that's many more on the roads then!

Quote: "A fast (2 hour max) link from the Scottish Central belt right to the door of BHX, taking in Tyneside, the Yorkshires and Manverpool might then give BHX a big theoretical advantage, but this isn't on the cards any time soon. "

Would pax from those areas not, in practice, get off in Manverpool and fly from MAN? unless, you don't envisage a stop at Ringway!

[FlyboyUK]

Madrid, Oslo, Warsaw, Helsinki,Vienna, Budapest I would say are the main cities perhaps BHX could get in the next few years, after those, struggling.

BHX-BUD is a current route

[pwalhx]

'It's just so pleasant when returning to step inside the BA aircraft there' where as in my view the minute I step on board BA L/H I mentally sigh at the thought of enduring a few hours with them. Alternatively I get on board the EK A380 to Manchester and I smile

[jabird]

Madrid, Oslo, Warsaw, Helsinki,Vienna, Budapest I would say are the main cities perhaps BHX could get in the next few years

Why HEL above STO? FR did serve NYO for a season iirc, don't know what yields or occupancy were like, but in another life we've seen Sterling doing ARN, CPH & OSL from EMA, so I wonder how much talking there's been with DY?

It is the fare paying public that votes whether a route is successful, not the airlines and not the airports...

I strongly disagree!

Yes, it is true that airports can only have a "wish list" for airlines to serve (apart from rare cases like London City Airlines), but they also have access to local data showing where the demand exists.

However, it is the airlines which call the shots in terms of new routes. Look at the Ryanair network map in particular. Why do they serve some cities from some regional airports and not from others (of similar size)?

Some of the time it is down to the PSC at each end, but sometimes it is also a case of asset utilisation. If a summer schedule has 2 rotations down to the Med and a smaller gap to fill in the middle, pop in a run to Ireland.

Naturally, where customers "vote" demand to exist, airlines will be keen to serve it, but only if it generates sufficient yield to justify the costs of operating the sector. The two are not always the same.

Yes, an excellent link, crazy isn't it! They also cutback on the number of fast trains stopping at Watford, so that's many more on the roads then!

The WCML is the rail equivalent of a very slot constrained airport! One of the busiest lines in the world - each time you add a stop, you have to manage the trains behind it so they don't catch up too fast - or you let them through but hold the stopping service. It is all one vast juggling act which leaves Watford Junction and Rugby with just one Virgin service each hour, even though both see upto 10 more wizzing through.

Would pax from those areas not, in practice, get off in Manverpool and fly from MAN? unless, you don't envisage a stop at Ringway!

My comment was based on what we know about HS2 so far. There will be a stop serving Birmingham airport, even if it will be about 2 miles away, so you will have to transfer to a people mover.

The route of hs2 north of Brum is not published at this stage, and it may go somewhere near MAN, although I am not aware of a plan for it to stop there. It would be costly to bring it in to the airport complex as it may have to slice under the active runways.

The assumption made by BHX management is that if you have a fast rail link to London, together with the runway extension and zero new capacity in the SE, BHX would become more popular for long haul flights.

Whilst I don't agree with the assumption - largely because airlines will go to LGW long before BHX - if we take the scenario that BHX was to get significantly more routes than it has today, then it would surely be bigger and better than MAN as a result?

[Firestorm]

The plan to use Birmingham might work if there is a stop at the airport which there isn't at the moment, and f there were to be it would ruin the concept of rapid transit between Birmingham city centre and London, and add on to that time to travel between central London and Heathrow, and you have a ludicrous, and unworkable plan.

[revo]

Stockholm

"Why HEL above STO? FR did serve NYO for a season iirc, don't know what yields or occupancy were like, but in another life we've seen Sterling doing ARN, CPH & OSL from EMA, so I wonder how much talking there's been with DY?"

I guess Stockholm wasn't mentioned as BHX have that city from October

Revo

[jabird]

I guess Stockholm wasn't mentioned as BHX have that city from October

Noted. Glad to hear it

[Fairdealfrank]

Interestingly, at Prime Ministers Questions today, Zac Goldsmith (Con, Richmond Park) asked the first question. Predictably, he enquired if the government was back-tracking on its opposition to LHR expansion. Tellingly, Call-Me-Dave did not rule it out. As his his wont, he didn't answer the question directly "yes" or "no", but left the door wide open.

Many in the government, at least on the Conservative side (the Libdems will never see sense on this one) appear to have "woken up and smelt the coffee" and want to do the U-turn on LHR expansion. Having done so many U-turns already, the government ought to find it easy! Maybe it's time for Call-Me-Dave to "grow a pair" and stop allowing Clegg to bully him.