BELFAST AIRPORT INTERNATIONAL

[Itchin McCrevis]

The big prize at Belfast is the London market, I would not be surprised if they make a play for this by operating multiple London Airports.

[Husky One]

KRK is not sustainable with both easyJet, Ryanair direct and Wizz dropping off a few miles up the road.
I'm struggling to see a need for 10/11 flights a day to LGW too.
EasyJet won't give up LGW easily and Ryanair already know that as previous attempts to compete there were no great success. I can see BHD making a play for some easyJet work as their 319s can operate effectively there as already proven a few years ago.
In the short term there'll be a load of loss leading fares but that will be followed by rationalisation on several routes. I'll not be flying Ryanair at any price. Been there, done it, didn't like it for a multitude of reasons. We are already blessed with a multitude of choice to many destinations and they're unlike to miss my £29.99.

[True Blue]

It has been posted on here that Bfs grew by about 20% last month. That is not because the economy has improved massively recently, but is a reflection that Ezy has been restricting capacity and in turn growth at Bfs. A large part of the growth has come from the large capacity increase by Ezy some months back. I can well understand the desire of Bfs management to break the hold that Ezy had. So we will see pax who had been using Bhd, or Dub now able to use Bfs, and the market will grow. Ezy has been caught out by their own tactics. A big loser here could be Lhr as pax move to Lgw with lower fares and a much better frequency. Charges ex Lhr are now shocking.

[Jamie2k9]

It has been posted on here that Bfs grew by about 20% last month. That is not because the economy has improved massively recently, but is a reflection that Ezy has been restricting capacity and in turn growth at Bfs. A large part of the growth has come from the large capacity increase by Ezy some months back. I can well understand the desire of Bfs management to break the hold that Ezy had. So we will see pax who had been using Bhd, or Dub now able to use Bfs, and the market will grow. Ezy has been caught out by their own tactics. A big loser here could be Lhr as pax move to Lgw with lower fares and a much better frequency. Charges ex Lhr are now shocking.

I'm sure the extra day in Feb added somewhere around 6% to make 20%.

From all accounts MOL talked about 4 aircraft before winter at the press conference Rumour is that 2 more domestic high frequency routes which I would think will be STN and EMA plus at least 2 more Eastern European routes. Anyway great news and 20% growth in Feb happy days

Suspect VNO or KUN will be one and then Wizz will be sent packing! Warsaw the other.

I would not expect EMA, just because it's not served ex BFS does not mean FR will operate it.

[Husky One]

The idea that easyJet has been restricting capacity is pure nonsense. Airlines do not make money in the winter but they make best endeavors to lose as little as possible. The crews and aircraft have always been in place in BFS but the decision to fly or not to fly them can be marginal. It was common knowledge that they were going to fly more this winter than last purely due to economics. Last year it was more economical to park them up more. Ironically the Ryan's are the biggest culprits of all at this. Take a look at BHX or STN in winter and you'll find literally dozens of parked up 737s doing nothing for months other than engineering checks. I fail to see how easy have been caught out (sold out maybe) as they provide credible schedules to most destinations including a massive amount of seats to London per week. BFS is easy's second largest UK operation. That's hardly compatible with restricting the market. In the mid nineties a return to London was often around £300. I've seldom payed more than half that if booked in advance these days with easyJet.
LHR figures won't even blink in the face of anything going on at BFS. There is an insatiable demand for interline LHR services. BA have it nicely wrapped up. I've always thought LGW as a better option for London but it just doesn't get reflected in the figures. Ironically there was always demand for a BHD-LGW service. It was a mainstay of JEA/Flybe for years. They only dropped it when they had to sell the slots to stay afloat. Why Aer Lingus couldn't make it work is a puzzle. If easy started that tomorrow they'd fill it. It wouldn't surprise me if that actually happens at some point although at the expense of some BFS rotations.

[EI-BUD]

The idea that easyJet has been restricting capacity is pure nonsense. Airlines do not make money in the winter but they make best endeavors to lose as little as possible

Husky one, I completely concur with True Blue's position on this. EasyJet has minimised the schedule consistently in order to maximise the fare levels. You could argue that they are correct from a commercial perspective, however, clearly the increase capacity is working splendidly now, as witnessed in the growth in numbers and the booked out flights. Before any of the wise contributors starts to mention yield, you can be sure that for all of the consecutive days across January and February where almost all London flights were booked out, the yield management model is used and hence the fares were collected at the normal rate.

In reference to Winter losses, this is correct. However, this is largely due to the sheer drop in the number of routes across Winter. Take EasyJet for example, the vast number of their sun routes are seasonal, like Greece, Turkey etc. This does not mean key frequency routes like Belfast lose money at any time. They have the same size of fleet, many parked yet bearing the same cost. Yes many routes will be marginal.

It was common knowledge that they were going to fly more this winter than last purely due to economics. Last year it was more economical to park them up more. Ironically the Ryan's are the biggest culprits of all at this

What is the difference between last Winter and this Winter? All the low cost airlines will park big numbers of aircraft in Winter. Ryanair are expanding fast, and the addition of many more primary airports and tailoring the offer to target the business traveller is intensifying. As a result fewer aircraft will be parked in winter than was traditional.

I fail to see how easy have been caught out (sold out maybe) as they provide credible schedules to most destinations including a massive amount of seats to London per week. BFS is easy's second largest UK operation

There had been many times of the day in previous years where EasyJet had huge gaps in the London schedule in the day. They deployed aircraft away to more profitable routes like sun routes etc across the more leisure orientated times of the day. However, the point is the demand was there at times like this and like last Saturday and early Sunday. That is the point.

Belfast is not the second largest operation. Luton is after Gatwick.

LHR figures won't even blink in the face of anything going on at BFS. There is an insatiable demand for interline LHR services

I think you'll actually find that the point to point element of the BA and EI LHR route will be hotly contested, however, in the face of the removal of the LGW routes ex BHD, LHR may benefit for those pax who may be sensitive to which Belfast Airport to use. This will be a good test of this theory.

Why Aer Lingus couldn't make it work is a puzzle. If easy started that tomorrow they'd fill it. It wouldn't surprise me if that actually happens at some point although at the expense of some BFS rotations.

Aer Lingus did make LGW work. They are pulling the route due to the need to surrender the slots as part of the IAG deal. This went in Ryanair's favour. LGW route has been in decline since EasyJet upped the ante, though Aer Lingus putting the 319 back on the route has not helped. I have no doubt LGW can work from LGW, though unless EasyJet do it, it is hard to see an airline brave enough to do so. If EasyJet feel the heat from Ryanair too significantly they could easily differentiate themselves by adding BHD by way of a LGW based aircraft, but interestingly they is zero noise coming from the EasyJet side here. Whereas when Ryanair came before they were up in arms in a dispute with the airport operator (unrelated to Ryanair) and it was a huge talking point on here. I agree LGW is a great alternative to LHR, I fly there a lot, on point to point, typically much cheaper flight and a very low cost option to get into central London by train.

[mart901]

Originally Posted by Husky One

The idea that easyJet has been restricting capacity is pure nonsense. Airlines do not make money in the winter but they make best endeavors to lose as little as possible. The crews and aircraft have always been in place in BFS but the decision to fly or not to fly them can be marginal. It was common knowledge that they were going to fly more this winter than last cynically due to economics. Last year it was more economical to park them up more. Ironically the Ryan are the biggest culprits of all at this. Take a look at BHX or STN in winter and you'll find literally dozens of parked up 737s doing nothing for months other than engineering checks. I fail to see how easy have been caught out (sold out maybe) as they provide credible schedules to most destinations including a massive amount of seats to London per week. BFS is easy's second largest UK operation. That's hardly compatible with restricting the market. In the mid nineties a return to London was often around £300. I've seldom payed more than half that if booked in advance these days with easyJet.
LHR figures won't even blink in the face of anything going on at BFS. There is an insatiable demand for interline LHR services. BA have it nicely wrapped up. I've always thought LGW as a better option for London but it just doesn't get reflected in the figures. Ironically there was always demand for a BHD-LGW service. It was a mainstay of JEA/Flybe for years. They only dropped it when they had to sell the slots to stay afloat. Why Aer Lingus couldn't make it work is a puzzle. If easy started that tomorrow they'd fill it. It wouldn't surprise me if that actually happens at some point although at the expense of some BFS rotations.

I don't think EI were planning on leaving LGW, the decision was forced upon them, and bear in mind that in the last year EZY have really ramped up capacity and cut fares to LGW I don't suppose its helped, however what goes around comes around and with a departing shamrock comes a ruthless £9.99 seat selling harp.
Whilst I think some of what TrueBlue has said about capacity constraint is cynical, there is truth in the fact EZY have had a total dominance at BFS and the LON market in recent months has started to look increasingly orange, I wouldn't say EZY have exactly broken into a sweat trying to develop at BFS, still a lot of unserved routes where pax either transfer via LHR/AMS or as the figures show drive to DUB to avail of APD free flying. I'm really interested to see how EZY respond, I'd imagine the Euro routes will see some pruning of schedules longer term, LON and other domestics maybe not, I can't see them taking it lying down, as has been said LON is the linchpin of NI aviation.

[El Bunto]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Aer Lingus did make LGW work. They are pulling the route due to the need to surrender the slots as part of the IAG deal.

Those particular slots did not need to be surrendered. The remedy required that any five Gatwick slot-sets be made available by IAG for use to ( Belfast and Dublin ), not that IAG vacate those services.

Note that Aer Lingus are continuing Dublin to Gatwick. They just decided to throw Belfast 'under the bus'.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

When you say LHR charges are shocking, this is revenue management. Only a few of the lowest fares are sometimes made available as much capacity is blocked for connecting passengers. A quarter of the seats may already be unavailable before a single London terminating seat is sold, hence unless you book early for some services, the price always seems high.

[mart901]

Originally Posted by El Bunto

Those particular slots did not need to be surrendered. The remedy required that any five Gatwick slot-sets be made available by IAG for use to ( Belfast and Dublin ), not that IAG vacate those services.

Note that Aer Lingus are continuing Dublin to Gatwick. They just decided to throw Belfast 'under the bus'.

Yes but they've cut DUB as slots surrendered there also. Being honest if you hand a slot over
from a 3x daily route and at the same time in comes FR, what chance of success? The route was already suffering to EZY's schedule and fares push. Their other alternative was to cut further the DUB route, one they had ddeveloped to being bigger than FR - they cut their losses!

[West Brit]

As the EZY winter schedule hasn't been released yet, maybe they had already decided to call it a day on KRK. When EI launched sun routes in competition to EZY may years ago there was no big out-cry.

[True Blue]

Husky One

So you think 6 flights on a Saturday between Bfs and all London airports is not restricting? That a last departure out of London at 18.10 pm is good? A 10 hour gap between first departure at about 6.15 am to the next at 4.15 pm to Lgw is good? To cut fights to Bhx during the summer so that you can concentrate on sun routes is good for pax wanting to go to Bhx? Yes, Ezy can structure their programme to, in the end, benefit shareholders the most. But that does not necessarily meet the needs of pax or of Bfs whose job it is is to get more pax through the terminal. I am afraid, for me, Ezy has been holding Bfs back and I think my beliefs are borne out by the jump in pax numbers. That can't be all down to an economy suddenly booming, because it isn't. And I am a big user of Ezy, I use them 40+ times a year.

And just to add, last departure out of London on a Saturday in July, 14.40!

[BFS watcher]

EZY have been hammering Aer Lingus on Gatwick since last summer. If you look at the pax numbers from the CAA stats the BHD numbers have been in double digit decline for months. Great having Berlin and Milan, have already booked a trip with Mrs Watcher to Milan in September cheap as chips. Looks like Berlin for the Xmas market this year!

[EI-A330-300]

Those particular slots did not need to be surrendered. The remedy required that any five Gatwick slot-sets be made available by IAG for use to ( Belfast and Dublin ), not that IAG vacate those services.

Note that Aer Lingus are continuing Dublin to Gatwick. They just decided to throw Belfast 'under the bus'.

Correct but the BHD slots were the best ones to get rid off, times were not as good nor valuable to the airline.

[DC9_10]

Booked a trip to Berlin. Really cheap and I think this is what Northern Ireland needs. Competition from the same airport. FR and EZY compete on routes at many a UK airport and LS have not run shy at LBA either. As I have said. Europe's two largest locos and Jet2 with a great holiday product makes for mixing and matching to get the the cheapest deal. EI may try, however I feel they may be frozen out of the market. A family of four ain't gonna choose BHD when they can possibly save a few hundred quid by travelling an extra 20 to 30 mins. Maybe except if your a member of Brian and Arlenes club.

[All names taken]

Originally Posted by DC9_10

Booked a trip to Berlin.

You're based in Liverpool and you've booked a flight from Belfast to Berlin? Eh?

I'm sure EZY have done the BFS to Berlin route in the past. I remember boarding a MAN flight at one of the downstairs holding gates and Berlin was boarding at the same time. The two lots of pax were getting tangled in the melee.

[mart901]

Originally Posted by DC9_10

Booked a trip to Berlin. Really cheap and I think this is what Northern Ireland needs. Competition from the same airport. FR and EZY compete on routes at many a UK airport and LS have not run shy at LBA either. As I have said. Europe's two largest locos and Jet2 with a great holiday product makes for mixing and matching to get the the cheapest deal. EI may try, however I feel they may be frozen out of the market. A family of four ain't gonna choose BHD when they can possibly save a few hundred quid by travelling an extra 20 to 30 mins. Maybe except if your a member of Brian and Arlenes club.

Hate to tell you but I book loads of peoples holidays and EI comes out cheaper on flight only almost every time, last year and this year thus far. Very interested to see the effects of extra capacity. I'm talking cheaper than every airline on comparable sunshine routes from BFS, the only cheaper options flying from NI are connections via AMS/BRU and only certain dates

[EI-BUD]

When you say LHR charges are shocking, this is revenue management. Only a few of the lowest fares are sometimes made available as much capacity is blocked for connecting passengers. A quarter of the seats may already be unavailable before a single London terminating seat is sold, hence unless you book early for some services, the price always seems high.

Skipness,
The operating charges that are in place at London Heathrow are much higher to the other London airports. Though it is not easily visible via the booking engines due to how airlines classify the fees, taxes and charges and wrap them up that way.

Aer Lingus for examples have taxes and charges of £53 on a flight out of LHR, while a flight ex LGW is £20.99. Both of those amounts exclude admin fees charges by Aer Lingus as standard of £7, and the airlines fare.

Willie Walsh has went on the record as saying that the point to point model is significantly challenged at LHR due to the higher operating charges that are in place and furthermore, he cites this as a reason that bmi struggled to compete and find its place on short haul, hence their move at a time to more medium haul routes...

EI-BUD

[Husky One]

No matter how much pontificating goes on here, EI made a mess of LGW. I travelled on it many times and it was never full. Long haul crews were using it as the bus to work for that very reason.
With respect to capacity 'restriction', I would define that as a deliberate reduction in services to maximise yield. That is not what easyJet were doing over the last few winters. if it's cheaper to park them up than fly them then they get parked up. Every airline does it. Jet2 are masters of it in BFS. Ryanair have mastered it everywhere else. Airlines exist only to make money and you can't blame them for that. I fail to see how easyJet are somehow a culprit hampering BFS growth by electing to reduce services in winter. Recent capacity 'increases' are purely the result of a larger aircraft on some rotations. Ironically the domestic schedule is better in winter than summer due to availability of airframes. Unfortunately only one of the 5 based airframes is a 320. I do agree however that the summer schedule over the last couple of years has been poor at weekends. That is clearly the result of sending the aircraft on longer holiday routes but you'd think by some of the attitudes around that easyJet should just exist to do the bidding of BFS. There's a bit of a shock in store if you think Ryanair are any different.
West Brit - the KRK route is always full so it's highly unlikely to be dropped although I believe the onboard spend figures are low. When EI arrived at BFS years ago they took on easyJet on head to head and got flattened. I recall taking an EI flight to AMS with 6 people on it. They eventually reduced the direct competition and found some success. I can see a similar scenario developing but the winner is less certain. Having all 3 locos pounding AGP may well work in July and August but is unlikely to be sustainable outside peak season.

[mart901]

Originally Posted by Husky One

No matter how much pontificating goes on here, EI made a mess of LGW. I travelled on it many times and it was never full. Long haul crews were using it as the bus to work for that very reason.
With respect to capacity 'restriction', I would define that as a deliberate reduction in services to maximise yield. That is not what easyJet were doing over the last few winters. if it's cheaper to park them up than fly them then they get parked up. Every airline does it. Jet2 are masters of it in BFS. Ryanair have mastered it everywhere else. Airlines exist only to make money and you can't blame them for that. I fail to see how easyJet are somehow a culprit hampering BFS growth by electing to reduce services in winter. Recent capacity 'increases' are purely the result of a larger aircraft on some rotations. Ironically the domestic schedule is better in winter than summer due to availability of airframes. Unfortunately only one of the 5 based airframes is a 320. I do agree however that the summer schedule over the last couple of years has been poor at weekends. That is clearly the result of sending the aircraft on longer holiday routes but you'd think by some of the attitudes around that easyJet should just exist to do the bidding of BFS. There's a bit of a shock in store if you think Ryanair are any different.

West Brit - the KRK route is always full so it's highly unlikely to be dropped although I believe the onboard spend figures are low. When EI arrived at BFS years ago they took on easyJet on head to head and got flattened. I recall taking an EI flight to AMS with 6 people on it. They eventually reduced the direct competition and found some success. I can see a similar scenario developing but the winner is less certain. Having all 3 locos pounding AGP may well work in July and August but is unlikely to be sustainable outside peak season.

Think I'll start hiring out motability scooters in Spain this winter!!!!