MANCHESTER - 8

[delta154]

Let me get this right, Manchester - Madrid is operated by Ryanair now,
easy soon plus Iberia and Monarch/Air Europa. A route which has not operated for a few years now has four potential airlines.

That is correct. Its history repeating. Once one carrier jumps on a route, 2-3 more join in, fight it out, route gets cut back/canned all together and sometimes, goes unserved for 3-4 years (MAD/BER-MAN), and PRG had WW/OK/LS but now just a daily LS next year.

Yes, I saw the IAG story in ABTN and the Monarch article and nowhere did I see Manchester mentioned specifically - is this a case of two and two is five or are these credible rumours?

Its a mix of the 2. Ive heard internally that ZB/AEU will launch MAN-MAD, and someone has seen a slot request for YW/IB (and these guys dont normally apply for MAN slots unless they plan to use).

The monarch rumours also seem to stem from the article that states the AEU/ZB co-operation, and a seperate article that states Monarch will have more Spanish destinations from MAN (and with BCN/AGP/ALC/PMI/IBZ/MAH/TFS/ACE/FUE/LPA/MJV/REU/GRO covered, it leaves SVQ/VLC/BIO/MAD/VGO/SVG. Combine this with the former article, its easy to see why has been singled out.

[Skipness One Echo]

SAS operate Newark A333 direct non-stop from Oslo SK907 started this year

Ah thanks Pete, that's interesting. Forgive my error, my reserach was from last year when I was going to CPH. I well remember IB MD87s at MAN, I wonder if the others will back off given FR's entry into the market. They seem to be doing a Gatwick as it were, a fair number of flights from offshore bases.

I seem to recall Air Canada apply for slots each year but don't operate alas, a return would be a natural fit, even on the B767-300s as before.

[OltonPete]

Iberia/SAS

SOE

Re SK, I only remember from the excitement of the locals on another forum.
It was also announced after the UA/CO tie-up which basically means
Star competing with Star or I suppose you could say complementing
although I believe that there isn't any JV on the route.

I certainly remember Iberia operating from BHX and MAN, the latter
for a longer period but I was surprised that Air Nostrum did not get in
first with the arrival of the new CRJ-1000's rather than Ryanair.

Not quite sure what to make of the AEA/ZB tie-up but I suppose things
will become clearer in the near future. Gatwick - Madrid code-share,
yes I can see that but not so sure about Manchester now, or Luton (easyjet)
or BHX (320/321/73H I would have thought is too big for my local although
a AEA 195 would be good).

Just hope some of Manchester's Madrid magic can eventually work it's
way down the M6/M42 west (not East!).


Pete

[Jamie2k9]

While talking about MAN turning a corner when it comes to passenger numbers, what about when Bmibaby go in Oct. What will the loss be in passenger numbers.

[LN-KGL]

roverman:
Hardly fair to compare MAN with OSL. OSL is a capital city airport built on huge central Government investment, and has no local competition. Fairly easy to sustain impressive growth in such a benign environment.

You are completely wrong with your comment even though you have moderated your statement a bit later. Let's look in to "the benign environment". Within a 50 mile radius from Oslo city centre there are three international airports. It's obvious that OSL is closest to the city - 24 mile to the north of the city centre. 36 miles due south of Oslo you will find Moss Airport, Rygge (RYG or Oslo Rygge in Ryanair language). RYG has flights to 38 different international (European) destinations (+ 2 charter destinations) and 3 domestic airports. On the west side of the Oslofjord and 50 miles outside Oslo to the southwest we have Sandefjord Airport Torp (TRF or Oslo Torp in Ryanair language). TRF has flights to 23 different international (European) destinations (+ 7 charter destinations) and 3 domestic airports. Both RYG and TRF are privately owned, they are strong competitors to OSL and both of them had around 1.5 million passengers in 2010. The population within a 50 mile circle around Oslo is close to 2 million (Greater Manchester has population of 2.6 million). From all three Oslo airports combined there direct flight to 131 domestic and international destinations/airports. In other words, the environment for OSL isn't that benign.

Now to your statement of "huge central Government investment". You are right that Avinor (the airport owner of OSL) isn't a private company, but I think it's easier to explain by quoting from their website:

Avinor operates 46 airports in Norway, thereof 12 in cooperation with the armed forces. Operations also include air traffic control towers, control centres and technical infrastructure for aircraft navigation.

Safety has the highest priority, and Avinor is responsible for maintaining the correct security level at all airports. We continuously work towards limiting environmentally harmful emissions to air and ground and towards reducing aircraft noise. The company is self-financing.

Avinor was established as a limited company, wholly owned by the state, on 1 January 2003. The ownership is administered by the Ministry of Transport and Communications.

I have highlighted one sentence in the quotation above. We can from this conclude there are no huge government spending; in contrary Avinor has to pay a fixed dividend to the government. In fact the revenue generated at OSL goes to cover investments in new facilities, operations of airports for in other parts of Norway (like the STOLports in the northern part of the country), world class snow removal ...

If we concentrate on airport charges given in the latest "Schedule of Charges and Terms and Conditions of Use" by MAN and compare what you need to pay at OSL - the winner is easy to pick out, and it is OSL with a close to 30% margin. The charges at MAN is almost equal to the ones at AMS, but not as steep as the ones at LHR. I suspect MAN too sort of "subsidize" the other airports in MAG plc system (Bournemouth, East Midlands and Humberside).

So to a small hint to delta154: the Icelandic ash effect from Vatnajökull happened in April and May of 2010 and that is 5 months before the new growth resumed. With the regards to math studies, I think you don't need to worry about that. Let's pretend you didn't see the trend line and concentrate on the area in red and compare it with the green area and what is by far the largest? The area difference represent around 2.7 million passengers lost since 2004 or if we compare with the all time high in July 2006 - it is around 4 million passengers lost.

I have followed MAN closely for over nine years now, both as an anorak and as an analyst, and it has indeed been a roller coaster ride these nine years. During my first visit to MAN in May 2002 the 757 was the most common aircraft and it flew charter flights. I still dream about the swanky green and blue JMC colours on long sleek 757-300 taking off ... wait a minute, aren't the two of the colours MAN uses on their website today?

Let's rather continue with the present. As you say delta154, there is indeed a number of new flights either listed or started. What will the loads be and what yield can be achieved for these new additions? Will the majority of these new passenger be British or of other nationalities? The latest forecasts from HM Treasury released six days ago shows a predicted GDP growth in 2011 to be 1.5% and in 2012 +2.1%. Accord to ONS, at the end of 2010 general government debt was £1105.8 billion (equivalent to 76.1% of GDP) and the debt is still rising dangerously fast. Am I the only getting a cold Icesave feeling here? It may well be that some airlines have been overly optimistic. There are some signs of such a reaction at one particular airport in my part of Europe - and it's at Copenhagen (CPH). The growth vehicle for CPH is a national route development programme named Global Connected, and the programme gives start help over three years to new routes. The first sign of over expansion came with the Delta Airlines announcement the day after they had opened a new route to CPH in May saying Delta will discontinue all flights to CPH from mid September due to low yield and poor loads. I will cross my fingers for MAN and let's hope this will not happen at MAN.

[delta154]

LN-KGL

Like has been said before, well done to OSL for its growth considering its 'huge competition', but also like has said before, its not relevent. OSL has had a different set of circumstances and has probably benefited in ways MAN couldnt. Due to the UK's insistance of sorting every other countrys debts first, and the a lot of the country spending money they didnt have, of course MAN was going to suffer!

So to a small hint to delta154: the Icelandic ash effect from Vatnajökull happened in April and May of 2010 and that is 5 months before the new growth resumed. With the regards to math studies, I think you don't need to worry about that

I think you have got the wrong end of a very very big stick here. The CAA figures compare one year to last, so, when the figures were up from October 2010 onwards, the ash cloud was nothing to do with it. The ash only affected the airport in April and may with closures, so, when people refer to 'the ash affect, it was only for April/May 2011 where the figures were significantly up due to flights operating in these 2 months that didnt in 2010.
Was MAN closed in October? No. November? No. Therefore Growth was MAN's own, not ash related.

The latest forecasts from HM Treasury released six days ago shows a predicted GDP growth in 2011 to be 1.5% and in 2012 +2.1%

So you are basing MAN's growth on this alone. Oh silly me, I forgot no foreign nationals use MAN whatsoever!

I have followed MAN closely for over nine years now, both as an anorak and as an analyst, and it has indeed been a roller coaster ride these nine years. During my first visit to MAN in May 2002 the 757 was the most common aircraft and it flew charter flights. I still dream about the swanky green and blue JMC colours on long sleek 757-300 taking off ... wait a minute, aren't the two of the colours MAN uses on their website today?

Fail to see what this has to do with anything?

While talking about MAN turning a corner when it comes to passenger numbers, what about when Bmibaby go in Oct. What will the loss be in passenger numbers

Probably no overall loss. Easyjet will have an extra aircraft, as will jet2 That directly replaces the 2 WW units, and adds to it as an A320/B757 is more capacity than the B733. Then there is monarch growth as well as some more in the pipeline. Then MAN confidently said ALL baby routes will continue be served. In other words, were not worried.

[Vuelo]

Is there any truth in the rumour of a 2x MAN-CMB service from UL about to be announced starting November, along with a 3x weekly MAN-SFO-AKL with Air New Zealand?

[delta154]

Is there any truth in the rumour of a 2x MAN-CMB service from UL about to be announced starting November

They have stated MAN is in their plans, but that was months ago and heard nothing since.

along with a 3x weekly MAN-SFO-AKL with Air New Zealand

Id doubt it, they have been 'coming' for years according to rumours. Depends where you heard it?

However, Andrew Harrison and the head of route development have gone to China to cross the T's and dot the I's on a new route though apparently?

[MANFlyer]

Came in on LX390 from ZRH at just after 8am yesterday and was greeted with an unbelieveable immigration queue that was already most of the way down the corridor on the C pier when we arrived and I saw it go back up past the gates on C. It was mayhem and there were a lot of very unhappy folk in that queue I can tell you.

We were ok with IRIS/chipped Passports but even then we had to fight to get down the corridor to get the chance to get to them.

I haven't come in on LX390 for a few months so was this a freak or is this usual ?. Either way it is totally unacceptable and needs sorting, sharpish. I saw an EK A330 on B pier (which I presume is a new service ?) but surely that alone didn't cause all that.

Well as I came in again on the same LX181/LX390 combo last week, and after slamming them above, I thought it only fair to update on my latest experience.

As we landed I saw the EK A330 on the taxiway having landed ahead of us. After my initial thoughts of 'Oh FFS, here we go again' I got increasingly happier as it stopped rooted on the taxiway waiting for the 'EK gate' at the end of B pier. There was a Monarch A320 still at the gate and I was pleased to see that even after we got to out gate at C the EK bird was still waiting.

I was first off and was delighted to see that not only was there no queue in the corridor but I was the first and only person at the passport desks. No need for Iris or chipped passport gates and I was out and through less than 10 mins after doors were opened.

What I did find rather strange, and I have to say, amusing, was my car was parked on the T3 short stay car park and after schlepping over there from T1 when I exited the lift on the top floor of the car park I could see that the EK 330 was still waiting for it's gate.

[delta154]

MANflyer.

Thanks for the update, hopefully this goes to show the queues you suffered last time weren't the incompetency of MAN, but just the sheer volume of people at that particular time (maybe offloading just as you pulled in).

What I did find rather strange, and I have to say, amusing, was my car was parked on the T3 short stay car park and after schlepping over there from T1 when I exited the lift on the top floor of the car park I could see that the EK 330 was still waiting for it's gate

More thank likely the Monarch pushing late, but, youd have thought the EK would have opted for another gate, as plenty of gates capable of handling the A330 at T1 (or maybe there wasnt one as all full). If it was the former, then its down to EK for insisting on the gate. If its the latter, then I think MAN needs to sort itself out before allowing more AM flights at T1.

[Check Mags On]

I heard the conversation between ground and the Emirates, and it was at Emirates insistence that they waited for that gate.

[MKY661]

Wasit at Pier B? I don't usually see any Emirates at Pier C. In fact Monarch usually use Pier C don't they?

[Hamburg 2K8]

Flew to Dublin last Saturday with FR from T2. All went smoothly, first time in T2 since 2003. New security area much better and efficent. Termainal looking very clean and today, not surprised the amount of waste bins they had along the gate areas. How many stands has the car park at the end of T2 taken up. I noticed nearly all the airbridge stands were occupied and the SQ had a remote stand. Is this just for the summer season?

Landed back on Sunday, proper braking action on landing on 23R, took a while to stop but I can see why 23R/05L needs re-surfacing, looks a bit of a state. As does taxiway Alpha passing over the road and past the AVP. Anyway, overall a nice pleasent return journey through MAN and DUB and even FR. I quite like the 737-800, much prefer my A319/A320 on EZY though.

[MKY661]

The runway is currently being worked on at night but not every night just some days of the week

[Check Mags On]

Stand 12

MKY661
The Monarch was on stand 12 on Pier B. Which is Emirates usual stand.
You see Monarch scattered all around Pier B and C.

[easyflyer83]

Easyjet will move to T1 in November. They will be using B pier predominantly with check in being where Monarch currently are.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

'Glass-Half-Empty' Guy Returns!

Well, regular posters on here will be delighted to note that I am back [Boo Hiss!]. Actually, I'm back from Bilbao having sampled the new EasyJet service ex-MAN. The load factor was most impressive in both directions - very few unoccupied seats on tonight's [Tuesday] inbound service. Fortunately, one of the few empty seats was next to me. As you all know, I am such a lovable upbeat character that I find this very surprising. But perhaps my designer stubble (shaving kit is extra weight) and rancid BO (hiking Bilbao and Santurtzi in blazing sunshine all day) worked their charms! Lots of Bilbao-originating customers, by the way.

But on to serious stuff. What an active board during my absence. And my compliments to contributor LN-KGL in particular for some fascinating postings. The material concerning Oslo I take at face value; I don't doubt your expertise regarding this airport. But of course, the data presented for MAN was of particular interest. And - in the finest traditions of the Manchester thread - it drew a predictable response. A lengthy posting listing all the recent new services attracted by MAN, but studiously neglecting to mention any contemporary setbacks. My compliments to the poster who inconveniently reminded us of the loss of the two remaining BMI Baby B733's.

There remains a small minority of contributors on this board who perceive a duty to defend Manchester Airport as if it were a football team. Any mention of bad news will not be tolerated, and must be glossed over if raised at all. Other airlines are expanding at MAN, so that's OK then. No, it is not OK. Losing a based carrier is a big deal, and we must factor it into our thinking. It is clearly not a sign that all is well and that unbounded optimism is warranted regardless.

The true state of play at MAN (and indeed at all airports) is best discerned by BALANCING the good news and the bad news to establish a reliable forecast encompassing all the variables. It is ridiculous to reel off a list of new services as if to say "so there!!!" and not acknowledge the debit column. On these boards, such postings differentiate the enthusiastic cheerleaders from the real-world analysts (such as Skipness and LN-KGL). Reliable trends can only be identified from the big picture overview, not from selected highlights drawn from the "goals for" column. Thus, LN-KGL's forecast of a +3% growth trend gets shouted down. Is it because the figure isn't what readers WANT to see, or is it because it isn't what they EXPECT to see? Heart or head? Be honest here.

The casual dismissal of GDP forecasts posted by LN-KGL is typical. Some may prefer to dream a rosy scenario and bend the facts to fit, but statistics such as these cannot be ignored if you prefer meaningful data to fanciful speculation. Amateurs may prefer to look away from unflattering economic data, but aviation professionals can't afford to. Airlines are often notoriously late in recognizing economic trends, but once they do recognize them they must act decisively. In this industry, the alternative is extinction. I just hope that afew companies are taking full advantage of the mid-summer dip in oil prices to hedge their forthcoming requirements ... some will miss the opportunity as usual.

The airline industry in the UK is still facing headwinds. Taxes are high, politicians are unsympathetic preferring to show off their "green credentials". The Arab Spring has become an Arab Summer and there is no end in sight. 'Club Med' is restless too. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis refuses to go away and threatens devastating ramifications well beyond what we have witnessed so far (defaults, euro break-up, bank insolvencies in consequence, more "QE"). The US is allegedly intending to end (pause?) "QE" currency creation at the end of June; this has been the only thing keeping the markets from meltdown. The terrorism threat has not gone away; following the Bin Laden humiliation pressure for a "spectacular" has risen.

Does anybody here really believe that such realities don't matter to the aviation industry generally, and to the outlook for MAN in particular? I assure you, economic reality matters a great deal, and it will drive the true outlook for MAN whether we like it or not.

So by all means take pleasure from the recent crop of good news at MAN ... I do (really!). But don't ignore / edit out / shout down the contributors who include the bad alongside the good. We are all best served by balanced reporting and discussion on here. Let's (please) avoid drifting back to the 'North Korean News Agency' level of discussion again.

Regards. SHED.

[delta154]

Hi shed

Firstly, thanks for the lengthy, detailed reply. Quite informative, however, I think there are a few things that need to be addressed.

Other airlines are expanding at MAN, so that's OK then. No, it is not OK. Losing a based carrier is a big deal, and we must factor it into our thinking. It is clearly not a sign that all is well and that unbounded optimism is warranted regardless.

Yes, loosing 2 based units isnt great news, and maybe there is another story hidden in amongst this. However, not more than 2 months after this news, other carriers announced their intention to base 2 more units into MAN for 2012, and, Andrew Harrison saying ALL ex-baby routes will continue to be served in 2012. Sign of bad times? Maybe. Sign of a carrier that couldnt organise a piss up in a brewery? More likely.

from the real-world analysts (such as Skipness and LN-KGL). Reliable trends can only be identified from the big picture overview, not from selected highlights drawn from the "goals for" column. Thus, LN-KGL's forecast of a +3% growth trend gets shouted down. Is it because the figure isn't what readers WANT to see, or is it because it isn't what they EXPECT to see? Heart or head? Be honest here

I shouted this down due to the fact I think predicting future trends is about as useful as fortune telling. Just because traffic was down in months of X, Y Z, does not guarantee that the same would be for month A. Just because Mr Jones goes for his paper at 0900 every day without fail, means he defiantly will tomorrow.
Quite frankly, you can analyse figures until your fingers turn blue and you get a banging headache, but, the simple fact is, you never know what will happen tomorrow?

The thing is, that despite the debt, despite the arab spring, despite sky high oil, despite any other world event, traffic is still going up at MAN, so what does that tell you. Well personally, it tells me that MAN isnt following the world events at the moment, otherwise traffic would be going down. Thats not to say it wont be caught out at a later date, but, for now, can we not focus on the wrist slitting, and actually celebrate the sucess of our little airport. You can say 'told you so' if/when traffic goes down, but at the moment, the British stigma of 'never happy' seems to ring true.

In regards to LN-KGL, I wasn't mearly shouting down bad news, more questioning his statement of 'MAN growth is solely ash related', which is utter tosh. The ash had very little effect on October-March figures. The only way it did effect them is if some little man in his house suddenly decided mid December ''oh, there's no ash, I'm going on holiday!''

[mickyman]

delta154

'I shouted this down due to the fact I think predicting future trends is about as useful as fortune telling. Just because traffic was down in months of X, Y Z, does not guarantee that the same would be for month A. Just because Mr Jones goes for his paper at 0900 every day without fail, means he defiantly will tomorrow.
Quite frankly, you can analyse figures until your fingers turn blue and you get a banging headache, but, the simple fact is, you never know what will happen tomorrow?'


To dismiss statistical analysis in such a flippant way is in my opinion - silly.
People get paid a lot of money to be able to predict trends these days.
Why do you think Delta is giving a winter break to 154 for example.
Manchester is STILL nowhere near what it was on passenger numbers alone - but the trend seems upward compared to the recent past - that is good.Airlines introduce new services because they analyse or predict
futures - its not just a shot in the dark.

MM

[delta154]

To dismiss statistical analysis in such a flippant way is in my opinion - silly.
People get paid a lot of money to be able to predict trends these days.

And your saying these high paid analysts dont get it wrong? What about the ones who issued loans to millions of people predicting they would be paid back? What about the analysts at baby who do not see a based future at MAN but other airlines do? At the end of the day, you can use past figures to look at trends, but I stand by what I said, looking at past trends only paints half the picture. Look at the ash crisis. Just because something happens one year does not mean the same pattern will happen again.
Look at 9/11, whos to say MAN wouldnt be at 25million passengers a year if that didnt happen. Look at the CX pilot dispute, who is to say CX would have pulled MAN if that didnt happen.
Im not saying analysts are obsolete, Im just saying future projections arnt guranteed, or will deffinatly happen, is a prediction backed up with past statistics.

Why do you think Delta is giving a winter break to 154 for example

But on the flip side, why does American see demand for the winter and staying year round on JFK this year? This is what Im saying, one persons prediction may not match someone elses.