Aer Lingus - 4

[Skipness One Echo]

Flew LHR-SNN-LHR on Monday. Was busy-ish going out and busier coming back, one thing that was obvious though was that it was flown from the wrong end! To get the best connections the aircraft needs to start the day at Shannon and not Heathrow. As it is not a loss making service, I think that the Irish Government is going to look bad as lets face it, no access to a major hub airport means that the economy will start to suffer big time as there are plenty of other places that do....

A crying shame.

[Just a spotter]

Well, Ireland and the UK are free market economies, and while aviation is regulated and LHR slots are like hens teeth, if the loads are there then the route will be filled by someone.

JAS

[fabo]

Less Backstabing and B**ching please...

Well isn’t it great to see what a great little country of backstabbers and begrudges we still are. Nice to say that the Celtic Tiger years haven’t changed our fundamental outlook completely!!!

I don’t begrudge Cork any service whatsoever (or Belfast or anywhere for that matter), however there are a number of issues with operating a transatlantic service from Cork

1. The runway in Cork is simply not long enough to support transatlantic operation with anything other than a B757. Extending that runway significantly isn’t practical/feasible since it’s built at the top of a hill.
2. Aer Lingus don’t have any B757’s (and are about as likely to acquire B757’s now as they are to acquire some second hand Tupelov’s). Therefore talk of Aer Lingus beginning a transatlantic service from Cork is pure pie in the sky, no matter how much people would like to see it happen.
3. About 3 years ago Aer Arann strongly considered starting a transatlantic route from Cork using B757’s but decided that the finances didn’t stack up. I know this sounds a bit far fetched but I’m not making it up, I knew a guy working for Aer Arann who put a lot of work into the study. There were also rumours circulating forums (including this one) about it at the time. Aside from obvious operation issues (sourcing aircraft, getting approval for flying ETOPS etc) the study indicated that they would have to charge a premium for the convenience of flying out of Cork and were not convinced that passengers were willing to pay this premium. Summer operation looked OK but route sustainability during winter months was a worry. I would be surprised if a whole lot has changed in 3 years.

The only way I could see a viable long lasting transatlantic service from Cork would be if CO, DL or some other US based airline transferred a Shannon B757 service to Cork. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see this happen in the next 1-3 years. However I think it is more likely that some Shannon services will be dropped and the aircraft deployed elsewhere in Europe. There are many markets out there with larger populations and industrial bases than the southwest of Ireland (and I’m talking about all airports in Munster here). As an example all of CO’s regional UK transatlantic services have larger supporting populations. This is a fact whether we like it or not. and b**ching and backstabbing each other here isn't going to change that fact.

The fortunate thing for Cork is that although it doesn’t currently have any direct US connections it has multiple daily connections to major international hubs at LHR & AMS. These connections are code shared with major international airlines (KLM & BA) so Mr Joe Blogs, business traveller can easily travel to and from Cork to almost any point on the planet conveniently and relatively painlessly.

Shannon just lost this. The only services from Shannon that will allow connections are via the eastern US, which are somewhat less than useful if you are going to Asia, Africa, New Zealand or Australia. This is an inconvenience to leisure traffic who will grumble about having to travel to Cork or Dublin but will still put up with the journey. For a large multinational company this inconvenience could easily be a deciding factor whether an operation/facility continues to be viable or not. It’s just gotten a whole lot more frustrating to travel to and the Shannon/Limerick region. Think if GECAS reps travelling all around the world from their Shannon base for example.

The jobs that are put a highest risk by removing the SNN-LHR link are some of the best paying jobs in the area that pump money into the local economy (I’m not referring to any particular company with that statement). They are the type of jobs that Ireland PLC is trying to attract and maintain. Manufacturing jobs that are transferring to Asia and Eastern Europe are also affected but to a lesser extent. Ryanair have absolutely no interest in providing the kind of service that Aer Lingus provided on SNN-LHR. In my opinion having an interlining link (with code share flight numbers) to a major international air hub is essential to the region – more so than transatlantic air services ever were. Economically the Shannon/Limerick region needs to maintain SNN-LHR link. I don't think that anybody expected or anticipated this - long established profitable routes don't tend to be terminated.


I sincerely hope that Bertie et. al. understand how important this link is. I’m not sure whether they do, whether they are willing to do anything or most importantly whether they will be allowed to do anything (by the EU or Ryanair).

[B257]

What planes do bmi fly ? If the saa offered them a good deal would they consider moving one of there belfast flights down to snn i wonder. The maintainance and ground handling could be covered by 3rd party.

[Belboy]

bmi may consider the SNN - LHR operation but would be mindful that Aer Lingus did not decide to stop the route as it was making too much money, however, with an innovative assistance package they may well encourage bmi or someone else to establish operations . AL are now a commercial airline and will operate wherever they believe they can make the best return for the shareholder. They have a committment to the share holder not to the airport. It is very unfortunate for Shannon but they must realise that, like every other airport in Europe they have to develop new sustainable business and the artificially created market that sustained them in the past is gone.

[840]

fabo->A330s can and do use Cork Airport. There would be no problem getting an A330-200 transatlantic. Aer Lingus have some concerns about turning them on Cork's runway, but expanding the turning circle is hardly prohibitive.

There are, however, two reasons we won't see Aer Lingus transatlantic from Cork. One is the lack of a Cat III runway and the other is the solid commercial reason that Aer Lingus have only a finite number of aircraft and they can be more profitably deployed in Dublin, especially when a Cork-based transatlantic service would cannibalise the customer-base of their own Shannon transatlantic services. The only way I could see Aer Lingus coming on to transatlantic out of Cork would be as a reaction if some other operator opened the route first.

[asianfly]

Let the market decide what services will work from each airport. Every town in Ireland would love a connection to their doorstep, but alas that is not feasible.
Irish aviation is still a bit of a mess. SNN has a nice airport, but a weak pax hinterland. DUB has a huge market on its doorstep but dodgy airport infrastructure, and ORK has a decent enough market but built on a hill. They should all be independent and they will all fight their own corner and fill whatever niches their airline clients can find.
I tend to agree that many in Cork have a fascination with t/a services whereas the real focus should be on developing and maintaining European routes. T/A services are more a trophy route...the airport's real bread and butter stuff is European routes.
As for SNN, it seems to be doing quite well with FR. The days of the mandatory stop are gone and with it some of the services across the pond. I personally always prefer to travel to SNN than DUB when going t/a, but I suspect that winter services will be whittled down somewhat. And as for throwing 53m Euro for 'marketing purposes', that is simply a complete waste. A bit like the overspend on the new Cork Airport or the purported costs on the new DUB terminal!! And let's not even think of those fabulously subsidised PSO routes...are they likely to survive once the gov turns off the tap?
Always amazes me that SNN never became a UPS or DHL hub. I always thought it would be ideal given no nighttime restrictions and plenty of affordable space.

[vkid]

as far as I know a cargo hub was planned some time ago and rejected by Aer Rianta/DAA

[ryan2000]

Reports indicate that Aerlingus might in certain circumstances operate ORK-JFK either with an A330-200 or a leased Boeing 757. Delta are also on the wish list for such a service. Nothing should be ruled in or out after the events of the past week.

[EI-SHN]

Here you go Tom: 300 New Jobs To Be Created In Cork.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/...BAUAU&rss=rss2

Whilst Shannon deals with the fact that there may be several job losses.

[en2r]

Here you go Tom: 300 New Jobs To Be Created In Cork.
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/...BAUAU&rss=rss2

Whilst Shannon deals with the fact that there may be several job losses.

What difference would having flights to Heathrow make when the ESB were deciding where to build their new power plant?

[MarkD]

bmi operate A319s and some A321s but also some E145s - they might be persuaded to run a daily SNN-LHR to keep a slot warm but both EI and FR would be watching closely for any assistance money and with openskies bmi will want to be using its LHR slots for longhaul anyway once their new aircraft arrive.

A Flybe E190 might be a good aircraft for the market as it could skim off the business traffic and let the people who don't want to pay fly with FR but they sold their LHR slots I think.

Shannon people don't really know how lucky they have had it to date - 4 flights each way on a jet aircraft into one of the busiest airports in the world where each of those four slots cost a fortune with fares starting from 75 Euro incl. taxes when the train from Ennis to Dublin is 50 Euro.

[FlyCorkInternational]

Not much really .... but I guess its just a case of pick every pro Cork report now and try and use it to highlight how "Shannon's Plight" is dire.
Anyways......
I have been watching the Cork / Shannon mudslinging going on here over the last number of days and have refrained from making any comments. I am from Cork and am (of course) pro Cork, and I can fully understand that people from the Shannon / Limerick area will always be Pro Shannon or their own area. Its only natural that people have a sense of pride or "want" (for the sake of a better phrase) in the best (and most) in infrastructure / facilities / amenities right on their own doorstep. Heck, I travel to China / Asia / Australia regularly, and I want SQ or CX to fly nonstop from Cork - but IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN - so I get on with it and go to where I have to go to make a connection. (And before anyone from Shannon says well u can connect thru Heathrow - I avoid it like the plague - Last time I connected in Rome, and know that it meant overnighting there before continuing on). Thats life.
Anyway the point I am trying to make is (and probably not making a good job of it) is that, we all want lots of things, but there are not always possible. But instead wasting time and effort in regretting and getting worked up with what was - just get on with it and put as much effort in making a positive result out of a bad situation.
In the context of EI and Shannon-Heathrow. The decision is made no matter how much people dont like it. Now the SAA should go out and try to replace them NOW rather than spending the next 6 months trying to persuade them to reverse their decision and come January 13th next when the last flight has left, say well "we better go look for a replacement now" - once the service is broken it will be very difficult to reinstate it. If the economics of it add up, then they should not have much difficulty in selling the package to a prospective airline. However people should bear in mind that just because the load factor was up in the 80% figure, doesnt automatically equate to money rolling in. Ryanair know this only too well with some of their Shannon services.
Anyway thats my 2 pennies worth. I am sure I may be derided for my opinions, but thats what they are ..... my opinions.

[WHBM]

Dumping the Shannon route and transferring the flights to Belfast is possibly something that EI can get away with, given that some Irish political support thinks that Belfast is part of their patch anyway and like the thought of seeing an EI base up there.

Then, next year, when the Belfast-London flights miraculously "don't work out", EI can shut the route and lease the Heathrow slots to Delta or whoever without anything like the political fallout in the Irish Republic that would have happened if they had sold off the Shannon route slots directly.

A clever two-stage strategy.

[MarkD]

WHBM - nicely summarised. The sight of Ian Paisley holding a (broken) A330 model is worth far more to certain interests whereas the CO slot lease is where the real questions should be asked.

[akerosid]

I agree; this just seems to add insult to injury and it will cause people to ask: does EI operate an airline or lease slots? DM acknowledged that the route made money, so leaving aside BFS, the real question is: does leasing the slots to CO make more money than the SNN-LHR route (or indeed, ORK and DUB as well?), in which case, why not lease more of them. Where do you stop? It's not as if it would be hard to shift more, if they wanted to.

Of course, EI isn't responsible for the economic development of the midwest, but still, it takes some neck to tell people that a route which is very important to them is being scrapped, so that the slots can be leased to a US carrier for its own expansion plans at LHR!

The government's lack of reaction to what seems to run very directly contrary to their commitment leads me to believe that it is actually a negotiating tactic and that, given the right deal from the SAA, we will see the route return. FF should hope so!

Finally, given the likelihood that LHR might (finally) go to mixed mode next year, allowing new slots to be created at LHR, might EI be able to apply for some of these and perhaps get around its problem that way? Long shot, but just thought I'd throw it into the hat!

[Just a spotter]

There was an interview on the radio this afternoon with, I think it was a representitive of IBEC, who said they were going to try to get a majority of Aer Lingus share holders to lobby for a reversal of the SNN-LHR decision. He mentioned 3 share holders in particular;

Irish State (government) owning 28.3%
Ryanair with 25%
Aer Lingus Employees holding an estimated 14%

So, forging a broad coalition of the Irish Government, Michael O'Leary and Aer Lingus staff .... now that'll be a sight.

JAS

[Aisle2c]

I tend to agree that many in Cork have a fascination with t/a services whereas the real focus should be on developing and maintaining European routes. T/A services are more a trophy route...the airport's real bread and butter stuff is European routes.

I fully agree with you, Asianfly. Cork needs to be able to walk before it can run, and run before it can fly. It is embarassing to see 30 odd European destinations out of SNN and only something like 10 out of Cork.

The priority should be

1) Get Cork Airport Debt Free and Independent (along with the sacking of Gantly a few other cronies)

2) Get in the Planning Application to re-open the old terminal as a low cost terminal.

3) Lower the landing charges, bring in more European routes.

4) Kick those Dublin shysters out of the Airport shops etc. and lower prices. (at the end of their contracts)

5) Get the remaining airbridges installed.

6) Buy a couple of transfer buses for remote stand use.

7) (Ideally) Upgrade both runways to Cat III, if not, one of them.

8) THEN, we can talk about t/a !

That should be enough to be getting on with !

[Tom the Tenor]

The Limerick based former Minister for Justice, Michael (Baldy!) Noonan was on the afternoon RTE Radio 1 news show, 5-7 Live, which has been starting of late at 4.30 pm (!). He says he has all ready written to Willy Walsh in BA to see if there might be some interest from that quarter in flying to snn.

Certainly worth a try and securing slots for BA at LHR would be hardly too difficult for a daily hop on an A319/320 over to snn. I know it was a different era but BA were mad to leave the LHR-Ireland market in the first place because it was not as if they had a problem with scarce resources, ie, they had the aeroplanes and crews to do the job. BA had always good loads to Cork and for the time the yield must have been sky high.

Nature abhors a vacuum and if the route is profitable from snn to LHR the service will probably continue in some fashion by some airline. With all his fellow millionaire pals I am sure the well known Limerick racehorse man, is it P J (?), could quickly put a business idea together and buy one of the older Ryanair 737-800s and be operating on the route within months. Most if not all of the folk whom are in line to lose their jobs could be quickly hired and given their jobs back too?

The gentle art of learning a little humility.

[Livinginthepast]

And why this will not happen

It took Aer Lingus too long to realise what a waste of a resouce Shannon Heathrow was. None shall replace them because it is not a good use of a Heathrow slot. Nobody will.
Dell will be no more likely to close down because of this, as it takes as long to get to Shannon airport in the morning and the evening as it does to get to Cork airport. Many companies will use it as an excuse to leave Shannon / Limerick. It will not be the reason.
All this talk of link to global destinations is pure speculation. Asia and Australasia can be connected through New York, Chicago and Los Angeles. A lot of Europe through Gatwick as well as Northern Africa and Carribean failing that Cork is not that far away.