Aer Lingus - 3

[Bearcat]

Dreamliners

[EI321]

dreamliners? What about them?

[akerosid]

Apparently our dear old Aer Lingus's choice for its new aircraft type. (See Ryan 2000's comments about Aer Lingus's plans, end of previous page).

Once the O/S deal is in place, we should HOPEFULLY see the order, but as Bearcat has said previously, we've seen so many rumours in the past, so we'll just wait. I understand Dreamliners have always been favoured, even over the new A350XWB. The new A350 isn't going to be available until 2014 or so., which makes it too late for EI.

Here's one I picked up from another forum (Dublin Airport Forum); Cullen is visiting the Bay Area (SF/SJ) for St. Patrick's Day and it's possible that a route to SJC could be announced; you'll recall that the incoming President of Dublin Chamber of Commerce kind of let the cat out of the bag on this. EI can't announce SFO, but SJC is a second tier city, so it should work.

Cullen will then be going to Brussels for the EU Council meeting on the 22nd March, which will hopefully see the Open Skies deal approved (on the assumption that the British minister is waylaid, gagged and pushed into a locker room under the stairs until the meeting is over )

[akerosid]

That's very disappointing; hopefully they'll get back to the table and put together another deal. Unless of course, the reason the talks fell through was that Airbus came up with a better deal.

[akerosid]

The Labour Court has issued its recommendations on the EI dispute; while it recognises that cost cuts are needed, it suggests that the airline broke the spirit of co-operation by moving forward with the new contracts without consultation.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=MHAUAUQLQLGB

Interesting comments from Clare TD (and govt minister) Tony Killeen, about the effect of ending the stopover on Shannon. The prophets of doom and gloom who predicted the end of SNN when the stopover was relaxed in 1993/4 were proved wrong, he says. Can't help recalling that two FF TDs resigned the FF whip when this happened ....

Interestingly, the article also refers to the introduction of the Customs pre-clearance facility at SNN and a major effort to improve the airport's competitiveness. Hopefully, the customs facility will also be put in place at DUB.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/?jp=MHAUAUQLSNSN

[Just a spotter]

San Jose ....

The Mineta San Jose Airport wants to add flights to Tokyo, Dublin, Ireland, and Raleigh-Durham and is pursuing Northwest Airlines, Aer Lingus and Southwest Airlines, among others, to make that happen.

From Feb 23rd's Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal!

http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo...26/story6.html

JAS

[akerosid]

Bertie goes into battle

The Taoiseach will be in Washington next week, to discuss the O/S issue with the US President. He is intent on doing a separate deal with the US, in the event that O/S fails, although he has had talks with Tony Blair on the issue and he (TB) seems committed to a deal going through.

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/134-01.html

Good news, although it's a pity they weren't so anxious to do this many years ago; there's nothing that is possible now that wouldn't have been possible 10-15 years ago, had the interest been there at govt level.

[apaddyinuk]

Bertie is not in Washington to discuss the O/S deal....Hes in Washington for his annual free Paddys week holiday and will just happen to mention the Deal with Bush as they exchange shamrock!

[akerosid]

Hopefully it will be academic inasmuch as the UK will not veto the deal on March 22nd. If, however, they do, we need a Plan B, which can kick in pretty much immediately. The Taoiseach in quoted in today's Irish Times as having spoken to EI, which apparently wants to add new US routes as soon as September. "It has the aircraft waiting", he says.

(Can't help wondering what acft he's talking about, because the two new ones have already been committed for the Summer).

Another IT article reports that BWI has offered EI a lot of incentives to fly there, but that EI would rather fly to IAD (to forestall a possible UA route?). The speculation is that the other two will be MIA and SFO/SJC, with SJC being "a dark horse".

All systems go! And not before time!

[Faire d'income]

All systems go! And not before time!

Might be a very good time to look at shares.

[akerosid]

Annual Results for 2006 being released tomorrow, Tuesday 13th, at about 7am.

Hopefully, some good news to report!

EI is also featured in this week's Flight, in an article on Open Skies; EI and IB are cited as the winners and Flight reports a manufacturer's report that these airlines will be making significant orders in the lead up to 28th October (although I sincerely hope we'll see EI do the needful much before then!)

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...tes-rules.html

Iberia, incidentally, has been reported as being in talks with Boeing for up to 30 787s. There are quite a few significant 787 orders in the pipeline (CO and a Kuwaiti leasing company ordered around 17 between them, today alone), so if EI wants to go down this road, it should really do so very soon. Once BA, EK, DL, AA and other large carriers order, the delivery positions will disappear very quickly.

[Just a spotter]

No need to panic on the order front ... Even if EI's money and custom isn't good enough for Mr. Boeing or Mssr. Airbus, I'm sure they could get an early slot and a damn good price for a large order of IL96's

JAS

[crackling jet]

can anyone explain the background to an article in the local press last week stating that they wanted to put extra a/c into Brs as part of a U.K. expansion. I myself did not see either of these reports, however quite a lot of staff at Brs did and are talking exitedly, now i was under the impression that Aer Lingus were pulling the plug on Brs at the end of this month. Or has the withdrawal of Flybe/ BAcon given them an ideal ready made opertunity and existing network vacancies. I remember in late eighties we had -early ninties we had two night stoppers for early BRU and FRA under the fith freedom aggreement untill financial problems at EI caused their withdrawal.

Any body in the know have any info or thoughts on these reports

[akerosid]

I don't think anyone (outside the EI mgmt and the airport in question) will know the answer to this until it's actually announced. BRS is not impossible, but with Easyjet already having a base there, it seems unlikely.

I'd have thought E. Europe was more likely - somewhere like Krakow, but that's just speculation on my part.

Interviewed today, DM said EI was sitting on €1b cash and that the airline has issued an "RFP" (Request for Proposals) to Boeing and Airbus for fourteen widebodies. It expects to make a decision in the 2nd quarter. As expected, 787 -v- A350.

[EI-BUD]

EI annual results

The results are great all things considered. It is I think the first full year of results since Ryanair launched the big raft of new services into mainland europe, and all credit to the airline and staff. Current cost cutting measures are good on the international stage, and the outlook is good given the open skys on the atlantic if that comes through Aer Lingus would be ideally positioned to tap into many markets.

[EI-BUD]

EI re Bristol

I would be extremely surprised if BRS is a base. I have read all the comments and info on here about "probables". I wouldnt be surprised if EI goes into a underutilised airport eg Coventry, Doncaster or even Eastern Europe as akerosid has suggested. Take Riga for eg. The airport is only I believe seeing 2.5 million (approx from memory read somewhere), and there has to be big opportunity for airline like EI with a low cost base.

The airline should aim for airports where LCC penetration is low in my opinion.

Any such airports come to mind ?

[eu01]

Riga has been almost certain candidate for a Ryanair's base and at the same time the population of Latvia is some 2.3 million only. Could be Tallin, but Estonia's population is approximately 1.4 million, even less.
I think the potential is yet again in Poland regardless of the growing LCC's penetration there. Two of the big cities in Poland still have surprisingly few connections - these are Lodz (Poland's second largest city) and Poznan. They could certainly be candidates for Aer Lingus. But it could be Warsaw as well; maybe Okecie, but if not, possibly one of the new low-cost airports in the vicinity of Warsaw that are scheduled to open in the second half of 2008/ first half of 2009 (names of the two: Modlin and Sochaczew).
Other possible countries in CE Europe are Czechia and Hungary. Prague is saturated however and Budapest has quite a strong presence of WizzAir and other low-costs either.

[Charlie Roy]

eu01

Do you mean Ryanair's new base, or Aer Lingus' new base?
(or both?)

My money is on Warsaw for Aer Lingus.

[eu01]

As yet I have not even a slightest hint of Aer Linguses possible talks in Riga. Riga has been indeed one of the Ryanair's favourite airports. Other possible candidates for the nearest bases (still talking about FR) are Polish Wroclaw, and with somewhat lesser probability Krakow (or) Lodz (or) Gdansk and later maybe Warsaw too.

[840]

I'd imagine that wherever the new base is will have to be somewhere that can offer at least 2x daily to Dublin and 3x weekly to Cork. It may already have those frequencies. Supporting a decent-sized operation to Dublin and Cork would significantly reduce the risks in establishing a base somewhere where the brand may not be very well known.