Aer Lingus - 3
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Interestingly, EI is saying that whatever new base is selected will be used for short haul flights initially.
I guess that if that's their long term plan, they need to select a city that will be able to support a long haul operation.
You can look at some current airports which have very limited short and long haul ops.
Sofia, for example, has a brand new airport, but with a small airline. Probably a bit too far east, although it is popular with Irish property investors.
Krakow - a perennial favourite; a beautiful city, steeped in history; good population; potential for long haul growth, particularly to the US.
Berlin - Easyjet currently having a major base there, but very strong population, geographically at the centre of Europe; EI's unit costs lower than U2's.. Great potential for long haul expansion; Schonefeld soon to expand into Brandenburg Airport (adjacent site). Very good ground transport links; politically v. important. Could be a good guess.
Just a quick question, while I think of it: can the EI A320 simulator be used for A330 training as well, or do A330 crews still have to go to Aeroformation in TOU for their recurrent/upgrade training? With quite a few extra 330s likely to be coming in the near and medium term, that sim is going to be quite busy!
I guess that if that's their long term plan, they need to select a city that will be able to support a long haul operation.
You can look at some current airports which have very limited short and long haul ops.
Sofia, for example, has a brand new airport, but with a small airline. Probably a bit too far east, although it is popular with Irish property investors.
Krakow - a perennial favourite; a beautiful city, steeped in history; good population; potential for long haul growth, particularly to the US.
Berlin - Easyjet currently having a major base there, but very strong population, geographically at the centre of Europe; EI's unit costs lower than U2's.. Great potential for long haul expansion; Schonefeld soon to expand into Brandenburg Airport (adjacent site). Very good ground transport links; politically v. important. Could be a good guess.
Just a quick question, while I think of it: can the EI A320 simulator be used for A330 training as well, or do A330 crews still have to go to Aeroformation in TOU for their recurrent/upgrade training? With quite a few extra 330s likely to be coming in the near and medium term, that sim is going to be quite busy!
Last edited by akerosid; 14th Mar 2007 at 18:55. Reason: Add question
Looking at it from a business perspective ... EI are not a big player and don't have very deep pockets.
Therefore, if you're going to set up shop in someone elses back yard (don't forget that while they're allowed to open up in another EU state, doesn't mean they'll be welcomed with open arms, especially by the incumbent "flag carrier") you'd better make sure that either;
1) The market is big enough to support 2 players (especially if you plan expansion)
2) You have a very unique sellig point (hence the loco success)
3) You can out last the competition in a fight
4) There is a large pool of locals who will automatically switch to your brand
On the back of that, can't see Berlin as a runner. Anyone have details on how financially sound the main eastern European carriers are?
JAS
Therefore, if you're going to set up shop in someone elses back yard (don't forget that while they're allowed to open up in another EU state, doesn't mean they'll be welcomed with open arms, especially by the incumbent "flag carrier") you'd better make sure that either;
1) The market is big enough to support 2 players (especially if you plan expansion)
2) You have a very unique sellig point (hence the loco success)
3) You can out last the competition in a fight
4) There is a large pool of locals who will automatically switch to your brand
On the back of that, can't see Berlin as a runner. Anyone have details on how financially sound the main eastern European carriers are?
JAS
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I think Warsaw, Krakow or Poznan could be front runners. I'd love to see a UK base in the future. EI would have to fight hard wherever they launch their overseas base, but I think with the right marketing they could do well!!! They offer good fares, good service, and their crew's are some of the best out there!
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I don't see EI opening up a direct route from LHR to the US; they need to focus on what they do can do best and that means flying Ireland-US routes, and - ultimately - a route from whatever EU city they pick as their next base. The intense competition on LHR-US flights from US and UK airlines alone will mean competition is intense.
The one thing that kind of worries me know is that there are increasing concerns about an economic downturn, due to concerns over US companies pulling out of Ireland and more recently, concerns about the US mortgage market. It would be very frustrating for EI to get this exciting new access, only to have these superb new opportunities undermined by a US or global economic downturn.
That said, people will still need to fly and Ireland may still have an advantage, in that it will be far better and more conveniently accessible to/from the US (and indeed Europe) than ever before, which will hopefully result in Ireland being perceived as a very convenient "entrepot" for US (and ultimately Canadian) access to Europe. Get a decent hub up and running at DUB and an efficient, lean t/a operation and EI should be well able to withstand the economic problems and challenges on the horizon.
The one thing that kind of worries me know is that there are increasing concerns about an economic downturn, due to concerns over US companies pulling out of Ireland and more recently, concerns about the US mortgage market. It would be very frustrating for EI to get this exciting new access, only to have these superb new opportunities undermined by a US or global economic downturn.
That said, people will still need to fly and Ireland may still have an advantage, in that it will be far better and more conveniently accessible to/from the US (and indeed Europe) than ever before, which will hopefully result in Ireland being perceived as a very convenient "entrepot" for US (and ultimately Canadian) access to Europe. Get a decent hub up and running at DUB and an efficient, lean t/a operation and EI should be well able to withstand the economic problems and challenges on the horizon.
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akerosid
Looking at LOT's financial results for 2006 I tend to agree. My money is still on a Warsaw base though.
Source: LOT website
Krakow - a perennial favourite; a beautiful city, steeped in history; good population; potential for long haul growth, particularly to the US.
Last year LOT transported over 565,000 passengers on flights to the USA and Canada. The load factor for long-distance flights reached 87.2% in 2006. In 2006, LOT planes performed nearly 2,900 trans-Atlantic flights, i.e. over 290 more than in 2005.
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Aer Lingus to San Francisco
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/bre...breaking78.htm
"A direct flight between Dublin and San Francisco was announced tonight by Transport Minister Martin Cullen. Aer Lingus will connect the two cities with a new non-stop service starting in the autumn."
"A direct flight between Dublin and San Francisco was announced tonight by Transport Minister Martin Cullen. Aer Lingus will connect the two cities with a new non-stop service starting in the autumn."
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Looks like San Franciscco!
SFO, rather thzn SJC, looks likely to be EI's choice for its new Californian destination.
MCO looks likely to be the Florida destination, since it was very succesful last time (in terms of pax numbers), with either IAD/BWI (IAD currently looking more likely) being No3.
Roll on Thursday, when the EU Transport Council is likely to agree the EU/US deal; most US carriers are said to be happy with the deal (UA and CO having endorsed it this week), so US Congressional approval should not be a major problem.
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...issue_id=15386
MCO looks likely to be the Florida destination, since it was very succesful last time (in terms of pax numbers), with either IAD/BWI (IAD currently looking more likely) being No3.
Roll on Thursday, when the EU Transport Council is likely to agree the EU/US deal; most US carriers are said to be happy with the deal (UA and CO having endorsed it this week), so US Congressional approval should not be a major problem.
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independe...issue_id=15386
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well about time....Great news. As for MCO or MIA ...the bottom line here is connecting thru JFK esp in winter time has all types of hazards thrown in re wx. AL is recruiting so many new pilots hence they are gearing up for a major expansion. 
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Historically Aer Lingus management have always mistimed pilot recruitment - failing to move when the need was there, then opening the floodgates just before a crash in the business.
They did it in 78-80, and again in 88-91, and famously in 99-01.
This can only mean one thing.
Recession on the way - predicted by Aer Lingus recruitment pattern.
They did it in 78-80, and again in 88-91, and famously in 99-01.
This can only mean one thing.
Recession on the way - predicted by Aer Lingus recruitment pattern.
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Nearly there ...
OK folks, everything's in place; Britain has said that it won't be blocking Open Skies, so within 48 hours, we could see the Open Skies agreement being approved by the EU Council of Ministers. Britain is still looking for a small concession, relating to a small delay (to March '08, when T5 opens) in LHR seeing new t/a flights - that's unlikely to see much opposition and won't delay everyone else.
So, after all the years of backward looking, parish pump politics, political spinelessness and lack of vision, we're finally going to get an unrestricted air deal between the EU and US, one which should provide some very exciting opportunities for EI.
Sure, there are risks and there will always be concerns about recession, but at the end of the day, the opportunities are there and if EI doesn't take full advantage of them, someone else will.
http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews...ollingnews.htm
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...1-ArticlePage3
So, after all the years of backward looking, parish pump politics, political spinelessness and lack of vision, we're finally going to get an unrestricted air deal between the EU and US, one which should provide some very exciting opportunities for EI.
Sure, there are risks and there will always be concerns about recession, but at the end of the day, the opportunities are there and if EI doesn't take full advantage of them, someone else will.
http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews...ollingnews.htm
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...1-ArticlePage3
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brokers looking at a realistic price of 3.40 on ISE wit 6 months. Very pos sentiment if this open skies goes thru. M O'L got his 26% very cheap.
A320 sim is not transferrable. Crews go Lon/Man/Tou for 330 sim or SEA if they get 78's!!
A320 sim is not transferrable. Crews go Lon/Man/Tou for 330 sim or SEA if they get 78's!!
EI to Denver?
If Aer Lingus needs a new US destination, I have another suggestion: Denver. Modern airport with long runways in central USA, under-utilized, with only two international carriers so far (BA from LHR, & LH from Frankfurt). Returned through there last Friday, and the worst thing about it was the ground travel situation - road only, reminded me of Dublin in that respect.
Historically Aer Lingus management have always mistimed pilot recruitment - failing to move when the need was there, then opening the floodgates just before a crash in the business.
They did it in 78-80, and again in 88-91, and famously in 99-01.
This can only mean one thing.
Recession on the way - predicted by Aer Lingus recruitment pattern.
They did it in 78-80, and again in 88-91, and famously in 99-01.
This can only mean one thing.
Recession on the way - predicted by Aer Lingus recruitment pattern.
Lets hope things go well for EI in the near future and the two new 330's DUO & DUZ don't herald the same times as the last great "expansion" with CAL and CAM (the two 763's in the early 90's).
JAS
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Dub-sfo
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/bre...breaking78.htm
Air link with San Fransisco announced
A direct flight between Dublin and San Francisco was announced tonight by Transport Minister Martin Cullen.
Aer Lingus will connect the two cities with a new non-stop service starting in the autumn.
Minister Cullen unveiled the new route during a meeting with the Mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, as part of an official St Patrick's Day visit to the USA.
"Ireland has strongly supported the efforts of the EU and the US to conclude an Open Skies agreement that would open access to markets and maximise benefits on both sides of the Atlantic," said Minister Cullen.
"The proposed agreement is a good deal for Europe and represents the best possible opportunity at this time to reach a deal following several years of negotiations at EU/US level."
Transport ministers will meet in Brussels next week to vote on the draft agreement which aims to liberalise the aviation market across the Atlantic. The agreement will have significant economic benefits for both Europe and the US, and the San Francisco Bay area in which 11% of the population is of Irish descent.
"The Bay area market potential for Ireland is extraordinary," said Mayor Newsom. "In addition to the Irish heritage of many San Franciscans, we are one of the nation's top tourist destinations and also home to an extremely well-travelled, high demographic community.
"In finance, services and the high-tech industries, our commercial links with Irish industry are strong and growing."
Although Aer Lingus currently serves four cities in the USA, Boston, New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, the airline has not been able to fly to other US cities because of a current agreement with the US that restricts accessible US destinations.
Mr Cullen said the benefits of open skies for Ireland are even greater in terms of increased tourism and economic activity.
"The prospect of unrestricted air access between Ireland and San Francisco is long overdue and a direct air link between Ireland and San Francisco would be fitting given our already well established common interests," he added.
Air link with San Fransisco announced
A direct flight between Dublin and San Francisco was announced tonight by Transport Minister Martin Cullen.
Aer Lingus will connect the two cities with a new non-stop service starting in the autumn.
Minister Cullen unveiled the new route during a meeting with the Mayor of San Francisco, Gavin Newsom, as part of an official St Patrick's Day visit to the USA.
"Ireland has strongly supported the efforts of the EU and the US to conclude an Open Skies agreement that would open access to markets and maximise benefits on both sides of the Atlantic," said Minister Cullen.
"The proposed agreement is a good deal for Europe and represents the best possible opportunity at this time to reach a deal following several years of negotiations at EU/US level."
Transport ministers will meet in Brussels next week to vote on the draft agreement which aims to liberalise the aviation market across the Atlantic. The agreement will have significant economic benefits for both Europe and the US, and the San Francisco Bay area in which 11% of the population is of Irish descent.
"The Bay area market potential for Ireland is extraordinary," said Mayor Newsom. "In addition to the Irish heritage of many San Franciscans, we are one of the nation's top tourist destinations and also home to an extremely well-travelled, high demographic community.
"In finance, services and the high-tech industries, our commercial links with Irish industry are strong and growing."
Although Aer Lingus currently serves four cities in the USA, Boston, New York, Chicago and Los Angeles, the airline has not been able to fly to other US cities because of a current agreement with the US that restricts accessible US destinations.
Mr Cullen said the benefits of open skies for Ireland are even greater in terms of increased tourism and economic activity.
"The prospect of unrestricted air access between Ireland and San Francisco is long overdue and a direct air link between Ireland and San Francisco would be fitting given our already well established common interests," he added.
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Quote:
"Maxalt ... unfortunetly ... the omens for the Irish economy being what they are right now, you may be bang on the mark!
Lets hope things go well for EI in the near future and the two new 330's DUO & DUZ don't herald the same times as the last great "expansion" with CAL and CAM (the two 763's in the early 90's).
-----------------------------------
I have to say, with all due respect, that I'm with EI-RB on this one. Sure, there are clouds on the horizon and there are concerns about various issues, but for a start, the situation now is very different from that in the early 1990s. For one thing, EI acquired these two 767s on the expectation - which proved wrong - that the govt would have the interest and vision to allow direct flights; they were wrong, but EI could have used these aircraft a lot better. I've always thought, for what it's worth, that one of the worst decisions EI has ever made was leaving these aircraft idle, out on the runway, for months on end; they could have worked to BOS and/or ORD.
That's yesterday. Today is different and tomorrow, well, that's going to be GOOD. It now looks likely that the Brits will NOT veto Open Skies, which means that the door is open. Sure EI will face new competition, but its t/a costs are among the lowest in the industry. With a decent fleet, good service and a good home base (well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad ), I think EI can make it work. I think that there is VERY good reason to be optimistic about EI's future, despite the various clouds, threats and challenges which will always be there.
Positive thinking, best foot forward; for years, EI has been held back by an insane, politically driven, suicidally irresponsible regulation which failed in its main aim and robbed us of immense potential. From tomorrow, that's history. Time to look forward with optimism. There'll be bad times, there'll be setbacks, but the overall picture looks very good and I think EI is up to the challenge.
"Maxalt ... unfortunetly ... the omens for the Irish economy being what they are right now, you may be bang on the mark!
Lets hope things go well for EI in the near future and the two new 330's DUO & DUZ don't herald the same times as the last great "expansion" with CAL and CAM (the two 763's in the early 90's).
-----------------------------------
I have to say, with all due respect, that I'm with EI-RB on this one. Sure, there are clouds on the horizon and there are concerns about various issues, but for a start, the situation now is very different from that in the early 1990s. For one thing, EI acquired these two 767s on the expectation - which proved wrong - that the govt would have the interest and vision to allow direct flights; they were wrong, but EI could have used these aircraft a lot better. I've always thought, for what it's worth, that one of the worst decisions EI has ever made was leaving these aircraft idle, out on the runway, for months on end; they could have worked to BOS and/or ORD.
That's yesterday. Today is different and tomorrow, well, that's going to be GOOD. It now looks likely that the Brits will NOT veto Open Skies, which means that the door is open. Sure EI will face new competition, but its t/a costs are among the lowest in the industry. With a decent fleet, good service and a good home base (well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad
), I think EI can make it work. I think that there is VERY good reason to be optimistic about EI's future, despite the various clouds, threats and challenges which will always be there. Positive thinking, best foot forward; for years, EI has been held back by an insane, politically driven, suicidally irresponsible regulation which failed in its main aim and robbed us of immense potential. From tomorrow, that's history. Time to look forward with optimism. There'll be bad times, there'll be setbacks, but the overall picture looks very good and I think EI is up to the challenge.
All for the positive thinking guys ... and I wish EI (and Ireland inc) all the very best in the coming months/years (my business depends on it just as much as everyone elses livelyhoods!) 
As for San Fran ... does anyone know if it's actually into SFO or are EI doing a Ryanair on it and opting for "San Francisco(San Jose)" ... not that SJC would be a problem, just looking for clarification.
JAS
As for San Fran ... does anyone know if it's actually into SFO or are EI doing a Ryanair on it and opting for "San Francisco(San Jose)" ... not that SJC would be a problem, just looking for clarification.
JAS
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Akerosid...I recall the 767s were got in haste from ILFC who absolutely raped AL on the leases....bent them over backwards. When the LAX op feel flat they were so desperate they leased an aircraft (cant remeber if it was both of them)to Air Aruba who had kicked on leases to Britannia and Air NZ. AL gave away the aircraft to Air Aruba and shouldered Air NZ out with their 762. Air Aruba then defaulted on the lease to AL. The 767 lease was a disaster. I wonder are these 767s still flying? They looked good in the old AL colour scheme.
EI-DUZ ...what a pathetic reg
22nd is D Day re open skies...I expect Akerosid to being doing cartwheels, like us all. A momentous juncture that has been hanging over us all especially in Ireland where the leviatian of the Shannon stop over fades into distant memories....competiton begins....and the big benificiary? the fare paying punter.
EI-DUZ ...what a pathetic reg
22nd is D Day re open skies...I expect Akerosid to being doing cartwheels, like us all. A momentous juncture that has been hanging over us all especially in Ireland where the leviatian of the Shannon stop over fades into distant memories....competiton begins....and the big benificiary? the fare paying punter.
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Indeed, Akerosid is waiting with baited breath, champagne on ice and two severe looking Ukrainians with baseball bats, standing behind the British minister in case he makes the wrong decision (gentle persuasion, I call it 
).
It's been a long old battle; we should have been here years ago, but we're nearly there, lining up, flap 3, TOGA power and waiting for brake release ...
Incidentally, does anyone know why EI ordered its new A330-300 as a -301, which is the baseline A330-300; the -200 is a -203, which is fine, but I'm just curious as to the -300; I thought they would have gone for a higher gross weight model, particularly with their need for longer reach.
As for San Francisco, it is actually SFO, rather than SJC.
). It's been a long old battle; we should have been here years ago, but we're nearly there, lining up, flap 3, TOGA power and waiting for brake release ...
Incidentally, does anyone know why EI ordered its new A330-300 as a -301, which is the baseline A330-300; the -200 is a -203, which is fine, but I'm just curious as to the -300; I thought they would have gone for a higher gross weight model, particularly with their need for longer reach.
As for San Francisco, it is actually SFO, rather than SJC.
I wonder are these 767s still flying? They looked good in the old AL colour scheme.
EI-CAL as she was
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1001988/M/
Based on cn;
This is AL today ...
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1165790/M/
EI-CAM as she was
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/0555825/M/
and this would appear to be AM today
http://www.airliners.net/open.file/1181787/M/
Can't remember back to whether both were painted fully in "White Shamrock" livery, but do seem to recall seeing an all white AM left loitering aound DUB for a good while.
JAS