NEWCASTLE - 4

[transwede]

Does the catchment area for NCL have the capacity and demand to fill so many loco flights to the likes of ALC, AGP and PMI. With TOM, EZY and LS offering high frequency flights, can they all be filled to make a profit? Not to mention charter companies also fly there, also offering flight only deals at loco prices, freedomflights and xl for example? Hope Jet2 know what they are doing, but it is good to see LEI, VLC and KRK from NCL. New destinations and variety, something NCL lacks of in certain areas.

Ryanair GRO

More competition for EZY. It seems locos are assaulting their dominance at NCL, will EZY fight or just sly away quietly?

Apron Space

NCL, even with extra stands on the southside and stands being upgraded to take larger aircraft still has a limit as to how many aircraft can park up over night. Sure many of the charter units do not nightstop, but they do return before all the nightstoppers depart, therefore parking is at a premium. NCL still does not seem to have grasped remote parking either, with handling agents having a lack of portable steps at busy periods, not to mention only 2-3 coaches ever in use at one time.

This summer, the following aircraft will all be on the ground at more or less the same time:

2 TOM 757, 1 TOM 733, 2 TCX 757, 1 MYT 320, 1 XLA 757, 1 XLA 734, 1 FJE 757, 2 LS 733, 6 EZY 73G, 2 BA 320/737, 1 AF CRJ, 1 KL 737, 5 T3 JS41. Makes a total of 26 extra and with the possibility of 2 extra from Jet2 thats alot.

Another thing to consider is the amount of check in space for early departures, considering all these aircraft will be checking in at more or less the same time, with the addition of aircraft which just come and go during morning time. Saturdays being particularly busy, with SFB operating. My guess is ques will be fairly large next summer, as Swissport appear to be overstretched and Servisair - well????

Nice to see expansion happening, but some things do need to be considered, unless the airport have plans of their own?

[lukeylad]

NCL is crowded at the best of times may even have to park a/c on the cargo apron.

[HH6702]

Come on ryanair lets have some more

stockholm
seville
jerez
bilbao

Well ncl now has 4 routes so we are closer to a base.
they said lets get 3 or 4 routes in to see if there is a case for us to base.

[transwede]

There is simply no room at NCL for a FR base, so I think its very doubtful.

Maybe its time for a second pier and more stands with terminal access.

[angels]

Folks, NCL isn't my usual lurking point, but thought you may be interested in what major ratings agency Standard & Poors has to say about your manor.

The agency rates bonds and is highly respected in the City. I'm just c&ping their release which was issued a couple of minutes ago. Have no idea if this of use to you or not.

If not PM me, I'll delete.

PS - a quick skim shows this is not good for NCL.

Cheers.



S&P release on Newcastle International Airport Ltd

Sept 29 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today its 'BBB+' long-term corporate credit ratings on U.K.-based airport operator Newcastle International Airport Ltd. (NIA) and its parent company, NIAL Holdings PLC (NIALP), remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. The ratings were placed on CreditWatch on Aug. 31, 2006, in view of a proposed capital restructuring at the company.
"The CreditWatch status reflects the potential negative effect on NIA's credit-protection metrics of a capital restructuring, although the terms and conditions of any such restructuring remain unclear," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Robert Bain. "We are also concerned that, following any restructuring, NIA could adopt a more aggressive financial policy than that currently factored into the ratings."
NIA has confirmed its intention to pursue a refinancing proposal that would result in the adoption of a more highly leveraged capital structure, although the final form of this has yet to be determined. NIA plans to repay or refinance the existing debt--excluding shareholder loans--without economic loss to investors.
"We will continue to monitor developments with regard to the proposed restructuring, and will resolve the CreditWatch status when its final form is confirmed," said Mr. Bain. "When the final form is confirmed, we will likely lower the ratings to speculative grade to reflect the credit quality implications of the restructuring."

[nclairportfan]

With regard to the recently announced routes to GRO from both NCL and MME. I think Ryanair are planning a base in the North East at some point before 2012 (big gaping hole on their base maps in the North East and South West) however I also think that they are testing the market at both NCL and MME before making a decision about which airport they would want to make the official base, presumably looking at turnaround times and trying to get the best deal from the airport they'll eventually choose!

There is certainly the potential for a small base in the North East. There are gaps in the schedules to places such as Poland (just 2 flights per week with LS), France and Germany so I think they would do well.

[HH6702]

ryanair will base and hopefully in time for next winter.

the airport will find space for them. may even move AF and SN over to the aero club over night.

heard they are talking to the charter airlines about re-timing some flight so they dont arrive back at ncl between 4am and 7 making more room for more based low cost aircraft

[nclpilot]

Cant see the airlines being dictated to by the airport - after all the airlines pay alot of money to the airport so cetainly wont be prepared to be told when they can and cant arrive if slots have already ben issued

[nclairportfan]

If we're looking at next winter then there is plenty of time surely to build some more remote stands? Looks like they'll need to speed up the masterplan if they want to stay in the running for an FR base and to allow for other expansion (ie. LS).

[Wellington Bomber]

What is the point in more remote stands when there is only 1 coach to get people there, and then there is one dispatcher to cover 3 a/c

[simonwa]

NCL to CUN

Ages ago we had rumours about an MON flight for Summer 2007 from NCL to CUN. Originally somebody on here send it was a mis-print in the Sunset brochure. However, the new 2nd edition of the Sunset Summer Sun 2007 brochure still states there is a Sunday flight with MON to Cancun. The only difference is that it states that Outbound is via Gatwick. Now a MON aircraft will be at NCL on a Sunday morning having returned from SFB - are they going to take passengers on the ferry flight from NCL to LGW and then continue to CUN. It's a possibility? Seems strange that the new updated brochure still has the flight listed.

[HH6702]

Ryanair to add NCL-VBS in the next couple of days so start by next summer.

See that FLYJET have been bought out today.

[NCLRULES]

For those that don't know, VBS is Verona Brescia. I don't kow how it could work, it's so close to Milan and the loads on that flight isn't anything wow.

It would also seem a strange choice for them considering only Girona and Stansted are the only flights there. Are they planning a base?

Are the flights from Newcastle not just because Milan is closed? Flights have routed there in the past in this case.

[Charlie Roy]

Originally Posted by HH6702

Ryanair to add NCL-VBS in the next couple of days so start by next summer.

HH6702
Verona Brescia appears as a Newcastle destination in the "Find Lowest Fares" section of Ryanair's website due to a glitch. It has been that way ever since they needed to operate to/from there during a short period when Milano Bergamo was closed.

[Jamesair]

EASTERN seem to have quietly dropped the NCL - INV route....it no longer appears in the timetables

[skyman771]

Originally Posted by Jamesair

EASTERN seem to have quietly dropped the NCL - INV route....it no longer appears in the timetables

I note it was showing yesterday on departure information as cancelled.
Lets be honest what chance had that service of ever being successful? Fare structure is strictly business orientated & would need some serious patronage to be successful. Indeed with the airline only showing an overall load factor on all UK services of 47.5% (CAA Stats June06) then there can be little scope for carrying, even in the short term, projected loss making low volume services. Was there an initial Scottish Tourist board subsidy to encourage inward investment? The facts are that if there was it was clearly insufficient and given Eastern's oncoming winter traffic projections, they are probably looking at a quiet exit. Indeed will anyone really notice

[Jamesair]

the route got off to a bad start and didn't appear in the airport monthly timetables till September...so people consulting that wouldn't be aware of the service at all.

Pax figures have been pretty low with August being particularly bad.

Probably won't be missed much but leaves Eastern with a gap in its a/c utilisation.

[transwede]

Looks like NCL's hope of getting a GSM base/operation have been dashed as they are due to start flights from MME to various european hotspots. surely GSM will now not consider NCL, even for long haul ops if an operation has been established at MME.

Gutted, was hoping for GSM 767 to fill NCL's crowded ramp space. I'm not fancying the thought of Ryanair taking over NCL.

[Jamesair]

Is there likely to be anything new for NCL from Flybe when it makes the rest of its summer 07 announcements? Surely there must be more than one weekly flight to Jersey next year and perhaps a route to France.

[JKP505]

Originally Posted by transwede

Looks like NCL's hope of getting a GSM base/operation have been dashed as they are due to start flights from MME to various european hotspots. surely GSM will now not consider NCL, even for long haul ops if an operation has been established at MME.
Gutted, was hoping for GSM 767 to fill NCL's crowded ramp space. I'm not fancying the thought of Ryanair taking over NCL.

Don't really think it matters that GSM are going to MME rather than NCL, at the end of the day, GSM do nothing more than what EZY / LS / TOM do anyway. Just because GSM are going to MME for short haul doesn't mean they'll go there for long haul. Plus, I would be delighted if FR came to NCL, fair enough, their routes (generally) aren't great for business, but I got a rtn to DUB for next to nothing.

Originally Posted by Jamesair

Is there likely to be anything new for NCL from Flybe when it makes the rest of its summer 07 announcements? Surely there must be more than one weekly flight to Jersey next year and perhaps a route to France.

Keep an eye out, EGC, BOD, BES and NWI. Heard they may be interested, but they are having issues with suitable a/c, and they have some ground issues at NCL - not happy with something, don't know what yet. Also heard that check-in concourse is causing a lot of problems with the projections for next year. NCL is going to have to get some check-in desks somewhere, at busy times there just isn't enough. For example some charters have been down to two per a/c, whilst TOM has had four for three a/c sometimes.

Considering thre isn't even enough groundspace, don't hold the breath on expansion! The airport surely must have considered all of this before now, otherwise they may be in the wrong line of work.