STANSTED - 2

[FRatSTN]

LGS

Oh, so that' it then. It amazes me that people with your attitude to what is evidently an exciting prospect, actually exist! Why would EasyJet publicly announce this news if they had very little intention to actually go ahead with it?

May I actually point out that Gatwick and Edinburgh have seen/will see significant EasyJet expansion. There's no reason why Stansted with it's huge spare capacity and £50m development cannot do the same. The press will always stir things up a bit as per usual. The source just tries to challenge the news to grab readers attention and cause debate, seems quite successful to me!

As for the quote by EasyJet spokeswomen, that will simply be because their plans are commercially sensitive information and they are not yet willing to or nearly ready to give a list of how many new aircraft, routes or passengers they will add at this stage. That will be in "some months" when they roll out their summer 2014 schedules, where more specific details will be announced.

Now I will quote some of your say:

now they have the ability to play the other three bases off against eachother.

Why would they ever want to play off three of their own bases? Yes you could argue Gatwick has the highest yields for them and may want to increase the pressure for other airports to cut fees, yet there's only so much more capacity Gatwick and Luton can take.

Also, important to EasyJet's strategy, it serves a large area of the London market by serving a variety of London airports (precisely their reasoning for adding Southend to their route portfolio). They will certainly not try to squeeze into one as much as possible by playing off the other three, where they already have many "established routes"...

Talking of which, you also say:

moving established routes would seem like taking unnecessary commercial risks.

Wow, what a contradiction!!!

I would also like to ask why receiving an attractive financial deal (and one which you except) would make expanding there or shifting some traffic from elsewhere an "unnecessary commercial risk"?

Any capacity freed up at LTN would quickly be taken by other operators

Er, would it? Who do you have in mind?

Wizzair... No. Eastern Europe is not EasyJet's key market at Luton.

Ryanair...Probably would not want to hurt their Stansted operation now. They are currently in similar talks with MAG themselves and will want to fight to keep their share of Stansted passengers.

Monarch... perhaps very minimally, on and off (and seasonally)

Thomson... A different market altogether (Package holidays, not LCC).

A new operator... I highly doubt it. Who would be so eager to invest in Luton to jump in and fill a gap of around 3 or 4 aircraft moving 30 miles away to a growing competitive rival?

Get over it LGS. Put up all the excuses you like, EasyJet will grow at Stansted in the coming years and even then you will probably still be dismissing the reality of it. Luton may suffer, it may not. Just wait and see though how Stansted grows in success before shrugging off any expansion announcements!

[STN Ramp Rat]

I don't see any extra for Stansted in Summer 14, EZY have all the Flybe slots to use at Gatwick next summer and they are a “use them or lose them”commodity. EZY don’t have a significant number of aircraft on order at the moment and both the Boeing and Airbus order books have a long backlog. In short they don’t have the aircraft to commit to Stansted.

IF the deal is a legally enforceable deal and the expansion does come then it will be after the aircraft that are allegedly to be ordered in Paris next week are delivered.

[FRatSTN]

That's true and I too don't expect anything massive for next summer.

But I could perhaps see them moving just one aircraft from Luton to make a start. That amount would probably not effect Luton too badly, but could have great effects on Stansted.

[PlymSpotter]

Don't easyJet still have a number of options to convert and further purchase rights?

[ericlday]

Sorry FR I do not understand the mathematical logic - one plane decrease from Lutons yearly pax figures is a greater percentage than one addition to Stansteds yearly figures.

[FRatSTN]

Sorry but I don't understand yours! If Stansted increases from 8 to 9 aircraft, that is an increase of 12.5%.

One aircraft being pulled out of a 16 aircraft base (which I believe Luton is, or very close to), that's only a decrease of 6.25% and EasyJet passenger numbers would reflect these figures (if you are referring to total passenger numbers then that is totally irrelevant really).

With 15 other aircraft to play around with and the possibility of using more away-based aircraft, they could perhaps adjust the schedule to try and add the 3 or so flights this could potentially move away.

Plus that's not really the point. IF Stansted can offer a more attractive deal than Luton does, I don't think EasyJet will hesitate to move one aircraft over there, potentially more and probably not worry too much about 3 or 4 daily flights they may lose at Luton as a result!

[ericlday]

Don't disagree with maths on percentage of aircraft, I chose percentage gain/loss on passenger figures over the yearly total that one aircraft would make to each airport. Just like politicians we can make figures look good or bad.

[A4]

But the announcement said it would increase pax numbers from 2.8 mppa to 6 mppa over the next 5 years. I doubt this will be done exclusively with based aircraft - more "W" patterns or STN being a destination rather than originator. If one aircraft = approx 260,000 pax per year then an increase of 3.2 mppa is 12 extra aircraft (based on A319) or 9 A320's....... I would love STN to be a 20 or 17 a/c base by 2018 but I would be massively surprised if it is.

I would also love a big Airbus order to be announced at Paris next week....interesting times!

A4

[FRatSTN]

I see, but as I say, it's irrelevant to EasyJet really what impact moving one aircraft from Luton to Stansted would make on the total passenger numbers for each of those airports.

If you think like that then maybe if Luton's total traffic took a bit of a tumbling (whilst EasyJet are still maintaining their capacity through Stansted), that could be good for EasyJet. It may become an incentive for the owners of Luton to offer a better deal to reverse decline.

To reiterate the point I was making, in case it wasn't clear (and I apologise if it wasn't)... Moving one aircraft from Luton may only result in a few frequency reductions, possibly making load factors increase as the demand stays the same or losing very few passengers in the worst case. Yet at Stansted, it could be used to offer new destinations and ultimately cater for new passengers (as well as putting back some of what they've removed in the last 2-3 years). Therefore, for EasyJet, it "would probably not effect Luton too badly, but could have great effects on Stansted."

[FRatSTN]

I would love STN to be a 20 or 17 a/c base by 2018 but I would be massively surprised if it is.

So would I, but I think you could realistically get say 12 or 13 by then, about the 2011 levels.

[LGS6753]

easyJet's agreement with MAG

Interestingly, this mega announcement has only come from one side of the deal - MAG. There is no mention of it on the EZY website, just on MAG.

That clearly indicates who was driving the deal, and it isn't EZY. I suspect MAG wanted a 'big' announcement, and EZY took the opportunity of fixing costs in case they have a change of heart over STN some time in the next 5 years.

Perhaps MAG are beginning to realize how seriously they have overpaid for Stansted.

[nt639]

Predictable!

Oh dear

[LTNman]

There was an easyjet spokesmen on local TV talking about the deal.

With easyjet moving 3 aircraft from Stansted to Southend by moving 3 aircraft back into Stansted they will be where they were a couple of years ago.

Given time I can't see any reason why Stansted could not become another Gatwick in terms of passenger figures and airline diversity.

[STN Ramp Rat]

I think LGS6753 might not be far from the truth. I was speaking with people from the Manchester Area this week, they were not that happy with the deal because MAG have apparently made it clear that their focus, and money, is on STN at the moment.

Easyjet have made it clear that Gatwick is their preferred airport in the South East. the best thing about the deal from the Stansted point of view is that it means there will not be the total withdrawal of Easyjet that was feared after the flybe Gatwick slot deal

[EI-BUD]

IF the deal is a legally enforceable deal and the
expansion does come then it will be after the aircraft that are allegedly to be
ordered in Paris next week are delivered.

STN Ramp Rat; reading your post and re the above, my understanding is that there will be no decision on future fleet until the end of the summer at least. That said new units are joining the fleet at the moment.

This summer EZY will have Titan operate a 757 ex LGW for the peak summer months, with one cabin crew member from easyJet.

My money is on a move away from traditional low cost airline thinking, i.e. by ordering a second type. The C Series most notably.

Why?

• Smaller aircraft
• Lower fuel burn
• Key weapon for competing on thinner routes operated by regional carriers, eg Flybe
• A big order with Bombardier could secure very strong pricing
• Lead time on airbus

easyJet management are watching with great interest the orders placed by Tui for 737 Max, FR large order about to be confirmed by shareholders, Norweigan orders also. This all leads to show the sheer scale of plans for LOCO airlines in Europe in the coming years.

Sorry if off topic.

In terms of demand for aircraft, an open skies agreement is in place now for Israel and this will be key point of interest for easyJet, so I would be expecting additional routes....!

EI-BUD

[FRatSTN]

Interestingly, this mega announcement has only come from one side of the deal - MAG. There is no mention of it on the EZY website, just on MAG.

That clearly indicates who was driving the deal, and it isn't EZY. I suspect MAG wanted a 'big' announcement, and EZY took the opportunity of fixing costs in case they have a change of heart over STN some time in the next 5 years.

Perhaps MAG are beginning to realize how seriously they have overpaid for Stansted.

And a "Mega announcement" it seems indeed with the level of discussion it's caused. There's nothing really from EasyJet at the moment because as we've already discussed, they haven't committed themselves to any specific expansion plans yet, such as new routes, aircraft and frequencies. Come to a time when they do, EasyJet will have plenty to say!

I can't recall anytime really when EasyJet have publicised stuff like this about new deals etc. only when something it confirmed such as when new routes appear or passenger milestones are hit etc. do they tend to put it on their PLC media page.

It has nothing to do with change of heart either, they haven't just gone off or got bored of Stansted. BAA ran the place horrifically and halted the airports ability to compete. A new owner is being successful in rebuilding the bridges that they destroyed, or let crumble away. If MAG and Stansted can offer EasyJet a fresh start, a better deal and offer an airport now seeing new investment (which EasyJet supports) and added value to it (unlike Luton may I emphasise), then they will take the opportunity to benefit from that.

I think LGS6753 might not be far from the truth. I was speaking with people from the Manchester Area this week, they were not that happy with the deal because MAG have apparently made it clear that their focus, and money, is on STN at the moment.

Easyjet have made it clear that Gatwick is their preferred airport in the South East. the best thing about the deal from the Stansted point of view is that it means there will not be the total withdrawal of Easyjet that was feared after the flybe Gatwick slot deal

Well of course people from Manchester are bound to think that! They of course fear that MAG is losing focus from Manchester due to the whole idea of Stansted joining their portfolio of airports. Plus, the positive effects that EasyJet expanding at Stansted doesn't concern or effect the Manchester area! Ask people in London and East of England, where the market lies, and I'm sure the vast majority will be much happier!

Yes, EasyJet do have a preference in Gatwick, but after they've utilised Flybe's slots, when will the next opportunity for major expansion be? It could be years! EasyJet seems to be one step ahead of the game it would seem, opening up opportunities for expansion in the London market when Gatwick can no longer give it to them.

Stansted will undoubtedly see EasyJet expansion. Ok, there may not be that much in the way of next year, but I think post 2015 is when you'll start to see the more rapid increases once Gatwick cannot take any more significant expansion.

EasyJet will not just stop growing when they cannot add to Gatwick. Lets face it, very few if any of the additional aircraft they will eventually add to their fleet could be added to either Gatwick or Luton due to lack of capacity (and space for overnighting aircraft). They will have little choice but to turn to Stansted for most of their future growth in the London market. That's the logic behind the deal and they will therefore have to utilise it!

[daz211]

Kimmo Holopainen to join MAG in the next few months he has worked at easyjet
Where he had responsibilities for commercial contracts and Airport negotiations
I wonder if this is linked to the easyjet / MAG deal at Stansted.

[Bagso]

Personally I think it's a meaninglessness deal no different to what was negotiated at MAN last year and subsequently at lgw and edi.

The Saffron Walden gazette fell for it hook line and sinker. .... as did other dumb headline writers.

"EasyJet to double traffic

Er no. If ezy feel like coming back they can at a cheap rate, it doesnt mean they will of course far from it.

Its pure spin and hot air im afraid.

[mikkie4]

Last EZY alicante flight from stansted today all future flights go from southend

[Skipness One Echo]

but after they've utilised Flybe's slots, when will the next opportunity for major expansion be?

They're probably saturating Gatwick about now, I'm not sure there's a load of new opportunities for major growth to be found now. They've stolen much of BA's point to point traffic and built an impressive base much larger than Stansted and Luton combined. I'm not sure there's a whole lot more major growth to be had there, especially if Stelios has any say in the matter.