Aer Lingus goes A330 ... again.

[Cyrano]

There was an Airfinance conference in Dublin this week: lots of lawyers and lessors and bankers.
DM made a speech to the assembled multitudes on Wednesday morning. No major revelations, but his points included:
- EI's cost base is highly competitive compared with other European carriers
- EI is expecting a Govt decision on privatisation within a few weeks
- In Jan 2003, interline feed was 20% of EI's traffic. It's now 10% and falling.
- By virtue of its geographical position, Dublin has the potential to be a transfer hub, a bit like Dubai - in fact Dublin currently has more direct destinations than Dubai (some raised eyebrows at the transfer-hub suggestion - he didn't comment on infrastructure needs for this or indeed on which transfer markets Dublin could realistically compete in)
- The hopefully-impending liberalisation will mean EI will need some short-term lift
- Any new long-haul aircraft will have an up-to-date business class to be able to offer a competitive product for premium passengers.

Brgds
C.

[840]

The limitations of Dublin airport aside, I don't see any reason that they shouldn't be able to develop a transfer business.

They offer some of the best value transatlantic fares nowadays. Also, they are starting to develop a decent number of destinations out of Dublin, particularly in central and eastern Europe. Many of those destinations don't have direct transatlantic flights, so Dublin would be as good a transfer point as any considering the fares and that it wouldn't mean setting off in the wrong direction.

Of course, the website only allows you to book connections to a range of UK destinations, many of which have gained transatlantic access in recent years anyway...

[Desert Diner]

To become a transfer hub, Dublin will have to build a new terminal just like Dubai did

[akerosid]

Interesting points, although I hope the refit isn't going to be confined to Business/Premier; Economy Class needs a good going over too!

As to transfers, my recollection is that it was WW's policy to discourage interline feed, so the reduction can hardly be a surprise. DM's apparent policy of reintroducing this facility is very welcome. DUB is supposed to be introducing a much needed airside transfer facility from next month.

I think there are still a lot of opportunities, particularly in UK regional destinations. I was disappointed that EI messed up on the DXB hub opportunities; the departure from DXB (at c.0020) gets into DUB at 05.20. The first t/a flight is at 10.30 (and by a different acft), so that acft from DXB could still leave at a time which would allow it to accept feed from EK flights (c.0700) and get into DUB at around 12.00, which still allows it plenty of time to operate t/a flights; most of the EK feeder flights to DXB arrive in at c.0530. Some pax may prefer EK's direct flights from DXB, but there could be a viable transfer to other US (and Canadian) destinations, once liberalisation comes in.

While there are UK destinations such as NCL, EDI and BRI which have got new US routes, most of these are through NY. With the benefit of open skies, EI could offer a lot more than that.

Going back to the point made above, I think that as long as EI has acft which it can use from this Winter, it should be okay to defer the long term long haul deal; I'd much rather they waited and got a better aircraft. Even if they do a deal for 332s now, as has been suggested, that doesn't preclude a Boeing deal.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by akerosid

I would certainly have preferred the 787. My big concern about the A350 is that it's still an eight abreast aircraft whereas the 787, with a wider cabin, can be operated in a 9-abreast configuration, should EI wish to go down the long haul low cost route. The principal concern is that FR has signalled its intention to go down this route and if they were to do this, being a 738 customer already, the 787-8/9 would almost certainly be their choice and having discussed this on the Orders yahoo-group, the 787 at 9-abreast would kill the 350 on costs per seat/mile.

I wonder whether it would be possible to fit 9-abreast in the A350 using this new staggered seat design? The manufacturers suggest that it can make a 9-abreast 777 into a 10-abreast configuration for equivalent comfort.

[brian_dromey]

I do not think that there is any reason why EI cannot be a massive transfer hub for europe/Mid east-US/Canada/Carribean destinations. An alliance with EK makes a lot of sense. EK can offer EI a shed load of cash and passengers, while EI gives EK transatlantic presence and a cost base close to the of FR, thanks WW.
EI has a high reputation in indusrty circles, and although slightly tarnished by WW its passenger experience is certainly as good as IBERIA ALITALIA and BMI. What EI dosent have is money... EK do, and with DM already inside and code-shares with EK I'd say a trade sale to EK is highly likely. The this would be the most palitable solution for the unions and Government, as no one side seems to have completely lost... secure jobs and cash in the bank, not to mention an airline partner with huge devlopement plans and tons of cash. Quite honesty the two airlines could produce a mammoth global network.
With the right A/C!

[Bearcat]

All good points folks but have'nt we gone through this all before?

Bottom line is AL have made NO official announcement. Currenty we are all crystal ball gazing which IMHO is fruitless. I look foward to when there is a definite decision and then we can speculate.

[akerosid]

Fruitless maybe, but interesting!

I know it's more than likely fruitless, but it is interesting to exchange thoughts on the old home team!

At the end of the day, this will come down to euros/dollars and cents and while we'll never know what the exact price each manufacturer's price is, I can't help thinking that I wasn't the only one to have thought, last Sunday, "good aircraft, glad they're finally making a move, but I WISH they had gone for the 787."? Okay, it's a gut feeling and they're generally not good news in aviation, but I still have this feeling - much as I'm sure that the 350 would do a grand job for EI if it were chosen - that the 787 is better.

If EK goes for 787s (and it now seems very likely that it will, if Boeing launches the -10 model), that will be the vast majority of "big hitters" going for the 787. It can't all be simply price; it was said at the time of the QF order that Airbus is sales led, but Boeing is engineering led, with the comment that "airlines that can't afford Boeings go for Airbus"; I don't think this is true in all cases (the A332 left its Boeing competitor, the 764, in the dust).

However, I think there is truth here; Airbus is at pains to promote the 350 as an all-new aircraft (if you look at the products listing on its site, it's A320, A330, A340, then "all new A350"!), but I think most carrier perceive it as a warmed over A330 and much as they may like it, particularly current A330 operators, it's still an aircraft for this decade, whereas the 787 is an aircraft for the next. If EI wants to choose an aircraft to last it for 10+ years down the road, surely that has to be a major factor.

Brian_Dromey, certainly good points on EK and EI, but I thought the govt (and its advisers) had ruled out a trade sale? Also, would the unions wear a deal with EK, which is a non-union airline? Would EK like the fact that EI is strongly unionised, in that the unions might perceive them as a cash rich company (which, arguably they are) that they could "bleed"?

[brian_dromey]

Originally Posted by akerosid

...I thought the govt (and its advisers) had ruled out a trade sale? Also, would the unions wear a deal with EK, which is a non-union airline? Would EK like the fact that EI is strongly unionised, in that the unions might perceive them as a cash rich company (which, arguably they are) that they could "bleed"?

I havent heard anything to that effect, an FF/PD's certainly can not afford a telecom Éireann/eircom flotation disaster this close to such a make or break election, the opossision would have a field day, and on the other hand the national carrier can not be let waste away either. Looks like all Berties dithering has landed him in the deep ! I
I dont think that EK is non-union á la FR, as unions are not a huge concept outsde the US and old EU, and as much as SIPTU are an insufferable bunch, they aren't fools either, and if EI goes down because of them all hell will break loose at Lenster House.
On the issue of DUB as an intercontinental hub...it really, really could work... at SNN, think about it, an empty airport, except for FR, makes the workers effecient at least!!, some of the longest runways in europe and damn all cerfews, etc and plenty room for expansion. At least the SAA have seen their potential! As for Airbus lining the pockets of Aer Rianta??? They would prob be better off investing the money in a decent wide-twin! Aer Rianta and EI are seperate organisations and I doubt EI will be thinking too much about Aer Riantas advertising kitty! (Aer Rinata=DAA same bad lot, same crap airport, nice EXPENSIVE new look though)

[EI-CFC]

I can't see EK getting involved at all, I really cant.

[Bearcat]

Sunday Business Post
Aer Lingus: Next stop Bangkok?


29 January 2006 By Ed Micheau
The Irish and Thai governments are close to an agreement that will enable Aer Lingus and other operators to fly directly from Dublin to Bangkok.
The Minister for Transport Martin Cullen met his Thai counterpart Pongsak Raktapongpaisal on a recent visit to Thailand to agree, in principle, a new bilateral aviation agreement.
A spokeswoman for the Department of Transport said Irish officials and their counterparts in Thailand were working on the issue ‘‘as a matter of urgency’’.
The bilateral agreement paves the way for Aer Lingus to open up a new route to the Far East.
The airline is believed to be examining a number of new destinations in the Far East including Bangkok, Singapore, Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur. Ireland already has bilateral agreements with Singapore and Malaysia. The agreement with Singapore has recently been updated to reflect policy changes at European level.

[irishair2001]

Aer Lingus next stop Bangkok

Unless our Minister of Transport Martin Cullen can somehow get the DAA to produce another 1500 - 2000 feet of concrete onto one of the shortest runways of a capital city in the EU ,this is not going to happen any time soon,because I am sure the likes of Thai,SIA and Malaysian would want to fly this route nonstop and more than likely with 777s without restrictions,as the runway lenght at DUB has already deterred EVA from starting a cargo service to the far east.

With Mr Cullen and our union cuckholded prime minister,announcements like this tends to make them look good.




Expletives Please. Go raibh maith agut. Hogg

[Bearcat]

tell me this....if they wanted to could they extend the end of 28 right away as I believe they own the land staright ahead into infinity?

[akerosid]

Yes, but who pays for it? That's probably the main issue; the DAA will want to add to the pax service charge; FR will blow a gasket and say "we don't need it" as will other low cost carriers.

That doesn't do away with the fact that it is needed. Now, I can't possibly estimate how much this extension would cost; EUR10m perhaps and the DAA might well argue that this is too much of a cost to bear, but the govt has already, publicly acknowledged that DUB is part of the state's critical infrastructure (they miss nothing, these guys!) and consequently, this issue should go beyond the DAA's balance sheet. There is a clear need for this and the potential loss over the next 6-7 years until the parallel runway is open is immense. As strong as our economic performance is, we're still an island and we're still peripheral; this means that we should be all the more sensitive to any issue which could undermine and growth and competitiveness. With oil prices rising (and likely to remain so, particularly if the Iranians need to be taken in hand), then airlines will be all the more sensitive to the risks involved with new routes.

If a potential new destination doesn't give them the ability to use their expensive aircraft to their utmost efficiency, why should they fly there? And it's not only new Asian airlines; what about the home team? Does EI have a view on 10/28? I'm sure IALPA does - they've told me, but why don't people go public? Is there a form of self-censorship in place? Ultimately, if you want to see something done, you're going to need to shout about it and frankly, if EI wants to be privatised, it needs to start asserting its independence, showing a vision and being willing to identify factors which stand in its way.

Where did you hear about EVA Air, by the way? Is that the only one?

[irishair2001]

Runway at DUB

The DAA (Aer Rianta by another name) deliberately kept 28 short despite acquiring the land to build a long enough runway at the time.This was all part of the Shannon strategy,this is the same organization that is manned by political apointees,the same company that spent millions on elaborate duty free shops,when duty free was being abolished within the EU,the same company that is expanding the car parking spaces at DUB for its own employees and making the public pay for it.(All the prime car parking spaces in the multi story car park ,across from the terminal and opposite the main door at DUB are reserved for Aer Rianta employees) "The Airport Managers" as their slogan used to be,can I am sure with the right political instruction provide the much need improvement to this critical element of our transport infrastructure.

On another note BMI wre refused permission at one stage to put a UA codeshare flight number on their LHR-DUB flights,because it did not stop at SNN.

[apaddyinuk]

Direct to Bangkok??? Oh dear, it will become the Priest mobile!!!

But seriously talking for a second. I would be surprised if EI operated any route to the far east nonstop, I would imagine that this flight to DXB is only a starter and that soon it will become the new Shannon stopover for the far east!!!

[nosher]

What are you talking about Irishair 2001???

"All the prime car parking spaces in the multi story car park ,across from the terminal and opposite the main door at DUB are reserved for Aer Rianta employees"

Thats complete crap!

DAA staff car parking is behind the Great Southern Hotel!

[akerosid]

I've heard a lot of rumours that the runway being kept artificially short, but is there any proof of this? I know a lot of very obstructive things have been done in Irish aviation policy over the years, but would they really go to this length. I'm just concerned that this is one of these things that someone might say - and get sued over, because it's the type of things that would never be minuted. Just a behind the scenes deal that could easily be denied.

I've always wondered whether it was just plain simple lack of vision? One way or the other, the job needs to be done now. The problem people overlook is that even though we're doing well economically, there are places like Bratislava, Warsaw and other new EU nations - on the continent, with long runways, cheap labour and excellent land transport links. And what do we do? We solidify our disadvantage with obstructionism and even more lack of vision.

As for BKK and other Asian destinations, I wonder if DM's choice was influenced by the possibility of EK coming in here; if they did, they'd hoover up and there'd be sod all chance of EI flying to Asia at all. I think the main reason for choosing to interline with EK at DXB is to do whatever it takes to keep EK out of Dublin ... and to build links to Asia. With the experience they've had on transatlantic routes, the last thing they need to place limits on their own growth potential.

[brian_dromey]

To be honest the BKK route is not going to be a priority at EI, of much more importance would be HKG with its network oppertunities with CX and dragonair to China and QF to Australia and New Zealand. Mind you QF did studies in the past on SYD-DUB and concluded that there was a demand there, definately for a seasonal service. I imagine that runway lengths /scuppered that. Maybe the new 777 could be used, to the mid east and then onwards.

On the subject of the codeshare to DXB is this bookable thro' EK? I heard that EI were pushing oneworld connections through DXB in the latest Cara, havent read it myself tho...

On the issue of the runway at DUB, it was probably left short partly as a lack of vision("sure were only Heathrow West!") and partly as a desire to keep the SNN lobbyists quiet.

[akerosid]

Asian routes

Hong Kong is certainly a far more attractive route for a variety of reasons, not least HK's geographic location, the fact that CX is a one world carrier and the extent of routes available from HKG, BUT HKG is a pretty expensive airport to operate from. Not sure how expensive the new BKK will be, but almost certainly less than HKG.

BKK, if the schedule is done properly, EI can interline with BA/QF routes to Oz, CX/AY to HKG and AY to SIN. Not as much as HKG, but still workable.

What is the situation re-CPT? Is that still on the radar? I guess the main factor against CPT - apart from the fact that it's a stand-alone route (as opposed to Asian routes which offer onward connections) - is that it's primarily tourist orientated and that the scheduling is quite aircraft intensive; i.e. the aircraft has to spend most of the day in CPT and even if (like KL and some BA flights) it comes back the same day, there's no prospect of another flight being operated ... unless of course an Asian route was being operated.

Just for illustration:
DUB-CPT (est. 12h20, based on 12h for VS 343 from LHR)
1500-0520

CPT-DUB (est. 12h40)
0800-1840

No US flight viable at that time, but Asian flight could be operated, dep. c. 2130-2200 and still able to connect with flights to Australia, from HKG.

Just a thought.

Still need the airplanes though ...!