Loganair
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Strange that Eastern would "cancel" Bank holiday flight rather than simply not schedule them.
Would a cancelled flight adversely affect reliability stats or are they not really collated?
Would a cancelled flight adversely affect reliability stats or are they not really collated?
I'm probably asking this as someone who views London as the centre of the world, but how much does Loganair rely on connecting passenger feed exchanged with Flybe at Glasgow / Inverness / elsewhere in Scotland ?
Assuming Flybe close Gatwick in March 2014, was wondering how this would affect Loganair at Inverness and (assuming it's possible) whether Loganair would need or want some sort of commercial agreement with Easyjet
Assuming Flybe close Gatwick in March 2014, was wondering how this would affect Loganair at Inverness and (assuming it's possible) whether Loganair would need or want some sort of commercial agreement with Easyjet
BA do not fly to Inverness. From April 2014 the only airline flying London-Inverness seems to be Easyjet. Thus anyone flying from the Hebrides, Orkney or Shetland wishing to go to London has to go via Glasgow / Edinburgh / Aberdeen and not Inverness. There are no flights from Inverness to the central belt airports.
This would likely weaken Loganair's Inverness base - although difficult to know by how much.
To add some numbers:r
In 2012, Inverness saw 594,288 scheduled terminal passengers
Loganair carried 57,263 passengers to a mix of the Hebrides, Orkney and Shetland
Inverness saw 397,137 passengers on routes to/from London and Bristol - routes which will be solely Easyjet after March 2014
On the Inverness - Geneva / Jersey routes, the Saturday-only flight arrives into Inverness after all Loganair flights have departed, so is likely aimed solely at people in Inverness who want a holiday with little or no Loganair feed
Inverness saw 133,890 passengers on routes that Flybe will continue after March 2014 and which might see some sort of Loganair connection.
Thus, of the routes where a Loganair passenger at Inverness might connect to another flight, Easyjet will have 75% market share of possible connecting passengers.
If this connecting feed is important at Inverness, does it force Loganair to get friendly with Easyjet ?
This would likely weaken Loganair's Inverness base - although difficult to know by how much.
To add some numbers:r
In 2012, Inverness saw 594,288 scheduled terminal passengers
Loganair carried 57,263 passengers to a mix of the Hebrides, Orkney and Shetland
Inverness saw 397,137 passengers on routes to/from London and Bristol - routes which will be solely Easyjet after March 2014
On the Inverness - Geneva / Jersey routes, the Saturday-only flight arrives into Inverness after all Loganair flights have departed, so is likely aimed solely at people in Inverness who want a holiday with little or no Loganair feed
Inverness saw 133,890 passengers on routes that Flybe will continue after March 2014 and which might see some sort of Loganair connection.
Thus, of the routes where a Loganair passenger at Inverness might connect to another flight, Easyjet will have 75% market share of possible connecting passengers.
If this connecting feed is important at Inverness, does it force Loganair to get friendly with Easyjet ?
Last edited by davidjohnson6; 23rd Jun 2013 at 18:59.
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Norwich base
I was just wondering why loganair don't seem to be to fill the gap between the morning manchester flight and afternoon flight, surely they could open up a Glasgow, Belfast or even the Dublin route, they average around 19 - 21 pax on the 3 daily manchester flight which seems to keep them happy, and I'm sure they could get that on those routes, just confuses me why they don't, or is there a specific reason. The aircraft has a lot of down time
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I considered writing to Loganair about that, but Flybe (and associated ventures) lost a lot of credibility when they were last doing the NWI-DUB route with the whole £280,000 rebate kerfuffle when they paid actors to fly to make up the numbers.
That said, they have now been eyeing a DUB route now for some time and nearly got Aer Lingus Regional, but Southend was piled upon them by Stobart. Using the Do328, I'd say that a DUB route would surely be profitable... The management have been talking it up again lately, the link below explains something (I hope).
Norwich Airport aims for take-off with wider route network - Business - Norwich Evening News
That said, they have now been eyeing a DUB route now for some time and nearly got Aer Lingus Regional, but Southend was piled upon them by Stobart. Using the Do328, I'd say that a DUB route would surely be profitable... The management have been talking it up again lately, the link below explains something (I hope).
Norwich Airport aims for take-off with wider route network - Business - Norwich Evening News
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Yes I think it would be profitable, believe they got loads of around 30 pax when they used the dash 8 which wasn't quite good enough, but on a d328 that would nearly be full, so here's hoping because there is definatly the room for it.
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So for example on the Q400, maybe (I'm making up these numbers) the first 20 seats were sold at £40 one-way, the next 20 at £60, the next 20 at £80 and so on. If there were 30 passengers a flight on average, the majority of them would in all probability have paid the lower fares.
On a 31-seater D328, things will be different, of course because the aircraft is smaller but also because the cost per seat is higher, so the average fare needs to be higher. So maybe there'll only be 5 seats at £40, then 5 at £60, then 10 at £80. The average fare across 30 passengers on a 31-seater aircraft will be a lot more than the average fare across 30 passengers on a 78-seater. And unless airline passengers are insensitive to price
a higher average price means lower average demand.In other words, if you had an average of 30 passengers a flight on a 78-seater and you switch to a 31 seater, you won't have an average of 30 passengers, because the fares on offer will be higher so the demand will be lower.
(And even more basically, even if the fares were magically the same, you still wouldn't have an average of 30 passengers. That figure is an average across different passenger loads, for example if five flights carried 10, 30, 25, 50, and 35 passengers the average is 30. If the highest possible number of passengers in a flight is 31 rather than 78, your average is going to be a lot smaller.)
And finally: you make the entirely wrong assumption that a full or nearly-full flight means a profitable flight.
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Ah that makes some sense to me now I can now see why the Manchester flights went up in price when loganair switched to it, Hense why they only get average of 21 pax of flight.
Well that clears most things up.
Thanks
Well that clears most things up.
Thanks
Cyrano
I hope your post get viewed more widely on PPRuNe than just on this thread.
Time and again unrealistic route suggestions are made (usually with the best of intentions) due to a lack of understanding of the economics of revenue management in airline operations. Your post explained how things work as clearly as any I've previously seen.
I hope your post get viewed more widely on PPRuNe than just on this thread.
Time and again unrealistic route suggestions are made (usually with the best of intentions) due to a lack of understanding of the economics of revenue management in airline operations. Your post explained how things work as clearly as any I've previously seen.
I'm sure Cyrano understands Yield Management, but trying to describe it in six paragraphs is like trying to describe how to fly an aircraft to PPL level in six paragraphs. For major carriers there is a whole department at HQ constantly managing and monitoring this. And they can't just pick up a £50 App to run the logic.
You need to know your market better than just "first 20 ...... next 20 ......". If you expect to get maybe the last 6 who book the day before going to business meetings, you need to make sure that they pay the higher fare, regardless of how many have booked earlier, so there's a lot of skill in what you offer, and when. If you manage to get corporate agreements with regular users giving them an x% discount, you maybe need to pitch even higher so after the discount you still are getting the amount you first thought of.
This one is oft-repeated. However, if a near-full flight is still not profitable it does show a real cock-up with the yield management.
You need to know your market better than just "first 20 ...... next 20 ......". If you expect to get maybe the last 6 who book the day before going to business meetings, you need to make sure that they pay the higher fare, regardless of how many have booked earlier, so there's a lot of skill in what you offer, and when. If you manage to get corporate agreements with regular users giving them an x% discount, you maybe need to pitch even higher so after the discount you still are getting the amount you first thought of.
And finally: you make the entirely wrong assumption that a full or nearly-full flight means a profitable flight.
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Excellent explanation of the basics of airline economics. Of course it is more complicated, but Cyrano's explanation is a good place to start. The topic is enormously complicated and varies quite a bit from airline to airline. Demand varies by route, by time of year, even the Weather plays a part. But the post does help to give an idea of how it works.
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Are Loganair looking at getting Saab 2000 airframes for Sumburgh contract work? Rumour of more heli's based in Sumburgh, so fix wings needed to service the route.