Is Easyjet facing an uncertain future?
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@ Leo Hairy-Camel
What is your intention of your thread?
All of your figures are not precise!
-FL Group owns more than 13% i. e.
- Aircraft number at EZY more than 100 ( you said 92)
- 6% profit margin for the time being is satisfactory. I know GERMAN WINGS would love to make 6%!
And AIR BERLIN? If you know any profit figure from AIR BERLIN, youn are the master!!!
What is your intention of your thread?
All of your figures are not precise!
-FL Group owns more than 13% i. e.
- Aircraft number at EZY more than 100 ( you said 92)
- 6% profit margin for the time being is satisfactory. I know GERMAN WINGS would love to make 6%!
And AIR BERLIN? If you know any profit figure from AIR BERLIN, youn are the master!!!
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Leo Hairy-Camel
This is a pathetic attempt to make something out of nothing. Judging by your previous posts, your loyalty to Ryanair under any and all circumstances is touchingly reminiscent of Joseph Goebbell's support of Hitler until the bitter end. You may recall that both those gentlemen, despite a promising start from their perspective, ran into a spot of bother towards the end of their tenure.
As a Ryanair manager (in your mind or in reality - who knows?), your job is to ensure that having alienated your own staff to the maximum possible extent, you slag off every company who stands in your way. I am delighted you find it necessary to question the state of easyJet - it is a sign we are causing you hassle. You simply do not know the profits or otherwise that we are making. What I know is that we will produce a profit this year (as we have every other year) and that every airline in the world is being seriously affected by the fuel price. If you are so foolish as to think that Ryanair is not being hurt by fuel prices you are even more blinkered than your other posts could lead us to believe.
I have recently flown on Ryanair - out and back in 2 half-filled 189 seater 737-800's. Nothing to base a master plan on but enough to say that you are facing the same issues as the rest of the industry. We bought our 319's a whole lot cheaper than you bought your 800's and someone has to pay for it. Despite you offering two pence trips to some place in the middle of nowhere that you call somewhere else, your load factors are virtually identical to ours (I think ours are actually slightly higher but there is nothing in it). You can sit there pouring cold water on everyone else but right now no one has a divine right to make money. EasyJet is doing great - and is a million times better employer to work for than Ryanair. As one of your own pilots has said - every single Irish-based pilot would leave for easyJet if we opened a base there. Your loyalty to MOL is like having a cobra for a tie - it looks pretty but one day you will wish you had placed your trust elsewhere!
I am one of those who believe that there will be a 'shaking' in the coming months and that both easyJet and Ryanair are among the few who will survive intact. With the forthcoming round of pay negotiations coming up - you could almost be a manager at easyJet!
This is a pathetic attempt to make something out of nothing. Judging by your previous posts, your loyalty to Ryanair under any and all circumstances is touchingly reminiscent of Joseph Goebbell's support of Hitler until the bitter end. You may recall that both those gentlemen, despite a promising start from their perspective, ran into a spot of bother towards the end of their tenure.
As a Ryanair manager (in your mind or in reality - who knows?), your job is to ensure that having alienated your own staff to the maximum possible extent, you slag off every company who stands in your way. I am delighted you find it necessary to question the state of easyJet - it is a sign we are causing you hassle. You simply do not know the profits or otherwise that we are making. What I know is that we will produce a profit this year (as we have every other year) and that every airline in the world is being seriously affected by the fuel price. If you are so foolish as to think that Ryanair is not being hurt by fuel prices you are even more blinkered than your other posts could lead us to believe.
I have recently flown on Ryanair - out and back in 2 half-filled 189 seater 737-800's. Nothing to base a master plan on but enough to say that you are facing the same issues as the rest of the industry. We bought our 319's a whole lot cheaper than you bought your 800's and someone has to pay for it. Despite you offering two pence trips to some place in the middle of nowhere that you call somewhere else, your load factors are virtually identical to ours (I think ours are actually slightly higher but there is nothing in it). You can sit there pouring cold water on everyone else but right now no one has a divine right to make money. EasyJet is doing great - and is a million times better employer to work for than Ryanair. As one of your own pilots has said - every single Irish-based pilot would leave for easyJet if we opened a base there. Your loyalty to MOL is like having a cobra for a tie - it looks pretty but one day you will wish you had placed your trust elsewhere!
I am one of those who believe that there will be a 'shaking' in the coming months and that both easyJet and Ryanair are among the few who will survive intact. With the forthcoming round of pay negotiations coming up - you could almost be a manager at easyJet!
Last edited by Norman Stanley Fletcher; 26th Aug 2005 at 21:55.
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sorry LHC,
but if you buy your shiney new 800s at a discount then do a sale and lease back deal on a few each year (several million cash back on each) then count said payments as profit / revenue (it actually is technically - and cleverish too ) then your figures can look very healthy.
unfortunately you're then in the position that you have to keep doing the same thing over and over again. eventually the bubble will burst.
head to head I don't think easy could compete with FR route for route. however I don't think they ever want to as the model is different.
at it's most basic EZY pay through to nose for it's choice of airports. FR doesn't. If it was my toy box and I ran easy I'd keep the CDG's and LGW's etc but put some focus on the wee airports like FR has done.
But as far a solvency goes the best indicator will be if the new buses stop arriving. each one is subject to some kind of finance agreement. the big lessors are far to clever to let them keep coming if there's any doubt about the money being there to pay for them.
but if you buy your shiney new 800s at a discount then do a sale and lease back deal on a few each year (several million cash back on each) then count said payments as profit / revenue (it actually is technically - and cleverish too ) then your figures can look very healthy.
unfortunately you're then in the position that you have to keep doing the same thing over and over again. eventually the bubble will burst.
head to head I don't think easy could compete with FR route for route. however I don't think they ever want to as the model is different.
at it's most basic EZY pay through to nose for it's choice of airports. FR doesn't. If it was my toy box and I ran easy I'd keep the CDG's and LGW's etc but put some focus on the wee airports like FR has done.
But as far a solvency goes the best indicator will be if the new buses stop arriving. each one is subject to some kind of finance agreement. the big lessors are far to clever to let them keep coming if there's any doubt about the money being there to pay for them.
Grim Sleeper
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We're all as bad as each other. Wake up and smell the coffee guys, we are both crap and long overdue a good drubbing from the market. Low cost air travel is and always has been a myth - what you save on direct costs you end up paying double on indirect costs, workforce issues, legal costs and so on.....!
But as appalling as it is, at least EZY doesn't have an odious four-foot tall one-boll0cked creep like Leo H-C fearlessly defending his company's inadequacy on a public forum. Honestly pal, is MOL your Mum or something?
But as appalling as it is, at least EZY doesn't have an odious four-foot tall one-boll0cked creep like Leo H-C fearlessly defending his company's inadequacy on a public forum. Honestly pal, is MOL your Mum or something?
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er, Leo....
why are you comparing sleazy full year '04 figures with interim '05 figures? Easy make a first half loss (as reflected in the interim figures), but a full year profit (as shown in the full year figures).
Discuss
why are you comparing sleazy full year '04 figures with interim '05 figures? Easy make a first half loss (as reflected in the interim figures), but a full year profit (as shown in the full year figures).
Discuss
LHC=Michael O Leary.
Mr O'Leary has a problem recruiting pilots at the moment. Therefore Mr. O'Leary is trying to scare some away from Easy and towards Ryanair.
By the way, the dat he provides is from an investor roadshow document and the revenue he quotes includes a stack of non flying related revenue.
The acounts show Ryanair's margins on flying related activities between 04 and 05 went from 9.2% down to 6.3% - a decline of 33% in one year.
LHC is just trying to sow Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (Called FUD in the computer industry) to divide and rule and keep you all scared and uncertain.
Mr O'Leary has a problem recruiting pilots at the moment. Therefore Mr. O'Leary is trying to scare some away from Easy and towards Ryanair.
By the way, the dat he provides is from an investor roadshow document and the revenue he quotes includes a stack of non flying related revenue.
The acounts show Ryanair's margins on flying related activities between 04 and 05 went from 9.2% down to 6.3% - a decline of 33% in one year.
LHC is just trying to sow Fear Uncertainty and Doubt (Called FUD in the computer industry) to divide and rule and keep you all scared and uncertain.
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"but if you buy your shiney new 800s at a discount then do a sale and lease back deal on a few each year (several million cash back on each) then count said payments as profit / revenue (it actually is technically - and cleverish too ) then your figures can look very healthy.
unfortunately you're then in the position that you have to keep doing the same thing over and over again. eventually the bubble will burst"
- Wasn't Harry Goodman very succesful at this kind of leaseback?
unfortunately you're then in the position that you have to keep doing the same thing over and over again. eventually the bubble will burst"
- Wasn't Harry Goodman very succesful at this kind of leaseback?
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LEO - What are you and I doing here
Leo,
You and I belong somewhere else but as we're here let's chat.
Easy are a different outfit........ you identify a failing in their cost base. I'm fairly sure that no Easyjet Capt. is getting paid €22,000 a month on a short term fill in. Perhaps even with problems with their 5254 they still can crew their aircraft, unlike us.
We need 10 Captains a month until 2011, and you're slagging Easyjet about their costbase. The board will want to know why we have so many $35,000,000 billboards parked around Europe next year.
Leo, we all know your fondness for Oscar Wilde's writings and the like:
In 1894 Lord Alfred published a poem, "Two Loves," in the controversial British literary magazine The Chameleon, which also featured works by Wilde. The romantic poem, probably Bosie's best effort, ends:
What is thy name?' He said, 'My name is Love.'
Then straight the first did turn himself to me
And cried, 'He lieth, for his name is Shame,
But I am Love, and I was wont to be
Alone in this fair garden, till he came
Unasked by night; I am true Love, I fill
The hearts of boy and girl with mutual flame.'
Then sighing, said the other, 'Have thy will,
I am the love that dare not speak its name.'
Leo, just between you and me can you tell me who bulled the cow?
You and I belong somewhere else but as we're here let's chat.
Easy are a different outfit........ you identify a failing in their cost base. I'm fairly sure that no Easyjet Capt. is getting paid €22,000 a month on a short term fill in. Perhaps even with problems with their 5254 they still can crew their aircraft, unlike us.
We need 10 Captains a month until 2011, and you're slagging Easyjet about their costbase. The board will want to know why we have so many $35,000,000 billboards parked around Europe next year.
Leo, we all know your fondness for Oscar Wilde's writings and the like:
The shove that dare not squeak its name.
What is thy name?' He said, 'My name is Love.'
Then straight the first did turn himself to me
And cried, 'He lieth, for his name is Shame,
But I am Love, and I was wont to be
Alone in this fair garden, till he came
Unasked by night; I am true Love, I fill
The hearts of boy and girl with mutual flame.'
Then sighing, said the other, 'Have thy will,
I am the love that dare not speak its name.'
Leo, just between you and me can you tell me who bulled the cow?
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Leo, I still can't find Ryanair's ASK, RPK, or any of the parameters by which airline operational economics can be really compared.
Surely if the humble Easyjet can produce them, you would want to show yours to be bigger and better.
Your glossy roadshow thingy does not seem to contain them, so where are they?
Surely if the humble Easyjet can produce them, you would want to show yours to be bigger and better.
Your glossy roadshow thingy does not seem to contain them, so where are they?
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Leo, your figures in your first posting on this thread are distinctly suspect. You quote Ryanair as having 28.6 employees per aircraft. As I understand it RYR operate mostly a 5 on/3 off crew roster. That can be a very efficient roster but as an absolute minumum it requires 4 crews per aircraft before any leave, training, sickness stand by etc. At 2 pilots and 4 cabin crew that totals 24 people per aircraft as an absolute minimum. It is impossible to see how all bases can be equally efficient, particularly in view of the small number of aircarft deployed at some of them. So I suspect that the real crewing ratio will have to be at least 4.5 crews per aircraft. That makes 27 people per sircraft and at this level it would still make RYR stunningly efficient. There is no possible way that RYR can possibly operate their airline with only 1.6 iother people per aircraft (147 people in total). There are things that they simply have to do that will quickly gobble up far more than that. Accounts, marketing, maintaining and developing the website, engineering, crewing, negotiations with suppliers, customer relations, MOL and his directors, call centre, etc.
In any event the total employee and employee per aircraft figures are irrelevant. What really matters is the number of full time equivalents required to support and operate the total operation and this includes man-hours bought from all suppliers. When you get that figure you can make real comparisons.
It is worth pointing out that any positive return or margin achieved makes any airline far better than the industry average. Remember that the entire airline industry (that is airlines and not including suppliers) throughout its entire history is still in net defecit.
Finally BA had a better margin than 6% last year.
In any event the total employee and employee per aircraft figures are irrelevant. What really matters is the number of full time equivalents required to support and operate the total operation and this includes man-hours bought from all suppliers. When you get that figure you can make real comparisons.
It is worth pointing out that any positive return or margin achieved makes any airline far better than the industry average. Remember that the entire airline industry (that is airlines and not including suppliers) throughout its entire history is still in net defecit.
Finally BA had a better margin than 6% last year.
Keeping Danny in Sandwiches
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Faq and Dawn Raider
You both are hitting the target. In fact Ryanair sold and leased back 10 aircraft last year. Perhaps LHC can tell us how much that contributed to the bottom line because the accounts shine no light on the subject. My guess is that all of Ryanairs profits last year came from this financial tactic - Easyjet may well have done the same.
Strangely the Stock Market Analyists haven't hit on it yet; are we looking at another Air Europe?
You both are hitting the target. In fact Ryanair sold and leased back 10 aircraft last year. Perhaps LHC can tell us how much that contributed to the bottom line because the accounts shine no light on the subject. My guess is that all of Ryanairs profits last year came from this financial tactic - Easyjet may well have done the same.
Strangely the Stock Market Analyists haven't hit on it yet; are we looking at another Air Europe?
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Lease-back props up the business (for now at least). This forces growth, and growth encourages lenders to invest in.... more new aircraft.
So growth is not a bonus to trumpet, it is an essential element.
So what happens at "level-out"? No more lease-back and all your costs are higher than they could have been (leases).
The loser will be the first one to level off. They will have higher costs, and all the investors getting twitchy because the growth has stopped. The winner will be the one who continues growing just long enough to mop up the remains of its big competitor just prior to raising prices to a sustainable level.
So which, of the 2, has a plan that allows the longest, most stable and sustainable growth? That is the real question.
The winner will have a rock solid reputation and public perception, the right level of well trained and willing crew, and a good product taking people where they want to go.
So growth is not a bonus to trumpet, it is an essential element.
So what happens at "level-out"? No more lease-back and all your costs are higher than they could have been (leases).
The loser will be the first one to level off. They will have higher costs, and all the investors getting twitchy because the growth has stopped. The winner will be the one who continues growing just long enough to mop up the remains of its big competitor just prior to raising prices to a sustainable level.
So which, of the 2, has a plan that allows the longest, most stable and sustainable growth? That is the real question.
The winner will have a rock solid reputation and public perception, the right level of well trained and willing crew, and a good product taking people where they want to go.
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All these figures must be very confusing to BA people. As I have a little understanding of them they look good to me and reflect lean and mean management. All the better as both outfits are investing all the time and have a very young fleet. Our 737's are crap and should be long gone and it should not escape both companies that BA is looking to make LGW a low cost unit and place much of the new routes with LGW. Perhaps a compliment, as BA sees rapid route expansion and cannot respond.
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C'mon guys, everyone knows Leo Hairy Camel is Michael O'Leary, even a book on Low cost airlines points it out!
Did Ryanair enjoy the truck load of toys receieved from EasyJet? Maybe you could throw some more out of the pram.
Did Ryanair enjoy the truck load of toys receieved from EasyJet? Maybe you could throw some more out of the pram.
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The Ryanair and Easyjet models are completely different. Ryanair rarely competes head to head with anyone, first because they fly to bum'8$% places, and second the behave like any other monopolist and engage in anti-competitive behaviour to drive others out of the market. They are hostile and belligerent towards their customers and employees (the opposite of the so called Southwest model) and their growth depends totally on finding new airports to blackmail and the willingness of customers to spend a fortune and hours trying to get from the airport to their actual destination. Because there are loads of these airports desperate to pay them, they can continue to expand and play their dodgy financial games. When this levels out, MOL will pay a heavy price. I know many passengers who actively avoid FR unless absolutely necessary and many many more who are will to pay a premium to fly EZ or BA as an alternative. Ryanair will pay heavily for this, and when new routes are at a premium and Ryanair finds itself facing competition on its routes, you will see that customers will pay a premium not to fly them. EZ already attracts many many more business passengers than Ryanair and if it would drop the cattle scramble for seats would attract many more. Any company which treats its staff and customers with such contempt is not a good long term investment.
PS...MOL's presentation of stats illustrates their dishonesty. Much of the income is not generated from flying, their hidden charges for wheelchairs etc are a disgrace and their customer complaints stats are a fantasy. Ryanair make it almost impossible to lodge a complaint...
PS...MOL's presentation of stats illustrates their dishonesty. Much of the income is not generated from flying, their hidden charges for wheelchairs etc are a disgrace and their customer complaints stats are a fantasy. Ryanair make it almost impossible to lodge a complaint...