The World's Biggest Aircraft Order
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The World's Biggest Aircraft Order
How long will it be before American Airlines announce the world’s biggest aircraft order? Coming up shortly is the decision that they must make to replace their 300+ MD80’s. The oldest are already more than 20 years old. These will almost certainly be replaced by the new Boeing 797. You may not have heard of this yet but it is the replacement for the 737 NG series. It will be a massive advance on any short haul aircraft currently flying. Features are likely to include GPS/Terrain mapping for Category 3C approaches to all airports with appropriate lighting, electronic flight bags, gate to gate automatic control, anti-hijack electronics, massive use of composites, bleedless engines, all data link capability for ATC including automatic links to autopilot systems, cabin width at least 8 inches wider than the A320, engine noise 20 decibels lower than current levels. The new electronics technology already exists and will fundamentally change the role of the pilots. It will be a classic example of Taylorism at work. Probably not one single pilot will be consulted about the order. Accountants, marketing people, engineers, tax experts and lawyers will certainly be involved, but pilots, no. Challenging isn’t it to the PPRune community.?
American will need to order at least 300 of these for delivery over a 15 year period. Allowing for growth that will mean they will take 1 per month indefinitely into the future.
But it gets better. They have around 125 767/A300’s. These will be replaced by the 787. Again allowing something for growth, an order for up to 150 would seem likely. Do not think that this is in any way unlikely. When Boeing were promoting their Sonic Cruiser it was rumoured that American would take all the first 2 years deliveries.
So what I am suggesting is that over the next few months American will have to make decisions that result in its placing orders for around 450 aircraft. Will this decision of theirs be announced at Paris or will it wait until Farnborough next year?
At the same time NorthWest have to decide on a DC9 replacement. Having already decided to replace their A330’with the 787 maybe they will also be a launch customer for the 797. Maybe they will order 150 of them just for starters. They currently have around 180 DC9’s, many of them more than 30 years old.
Maybe the 797 will be the first commercial jet to capture more than 1000 orders before its first flight.
There have been some sceptics in these threads about Boeing aircraft but I just suspect that they are on the threshold of a new golden era.
American will need to order at least 300 of these for delivery over a 15 year period. Allowing for growth that will mean they will take 1 per month indefinitely into the future.
But it gets better. They have around 125 767/A300’s. These will be replaced by the 787. Again allowing something for growth, an order for up to 150 would seem likely. Do not think that this is in any way unlikely. When Boeing were promoting their Sonic Cruiser it was rumoured that American would take all the first 2 years deliveries.
So what I am suggesting is that over the next few months American will have to make decisions that result in its placing orders for around 450 aircraft. Will this decision of theirs be announced at Paris or will it wait until Farnborough next year?
At the same time NorthWest have to decide on a DC9 replacement. Having already decided to replace their A330’with the 787 maybe they will also be a launch customer for the 797. Maybe they will order 150 of them just for starters. They currently have around 180 DC9’s, many of them more than 30 years old.
Maybe the 797 will be the first commercial jet to capture more than 1000 orders before its first flight.
There have been some sceptics in these threads about Boeing aircraft but I just suspect that they are on the threshold of a new golden era.
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I think you're probably right, bearing in mind all the surplus wealth sloshing around the ultra-prosperous US airline industry at the moment.
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I don't think AA are currently in any financial position to negotiate the world's biggest aircraft order. The idea of them announcing a 450 aircraft order is suicide with the state of the US aviation market.
Maybe if one of the big airlines goes bust (Delta or United) they will be in a more secure position.
How many 738s do they have left on order, if any? (Not too sure on numbers)
Maybe these could do a job of replacing a couple, other than that, I wouldn't be surprised if AA does a Northwest and works the super 80s to death in the same way Northwest are doing with the DC9's, with some of them being 30-40 years old.
With Northwest I reckon if anything they would replace their DC9's with Airbus as they seem to be quite a loyal customer with their amount of A319s/A320's and A330's and Airbus are more likely to do a deal with them to snatch orders from Boeing.
Maybe if one of the big airlines goes bust (Delta or United) they will be in a more secure position.
How many 738s do they have left on order, if any? (Not too sure on numbers)
Maybe these could do a job of replacing a couple, other than that, I wouldn't be surprised if AA does a Northwest and works the super 80s to death in the same way Northwest are doing with the DC9's, with some of them being 30-40 years old.
With Northwest I reckon if anything they would replace their DC9's with Airbus as they seem to be quite a loyal customer with their amount of A319s/A320's and A330's and Airbus are more likely to do a deal with them to snatch orders from Boeing.
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I think that AA will do their best to get away from a single supplier contract as they have with Boeing... They will give some to AI as that will create more leverage then "Buy American" philosophies. 
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This really is pure speculation. American are in no fit state financially to contemplate any transaction of this size. They are currently not regarded as a bankable credit in the aviation finance community. This means that for any new aircraft order, they would be forced to rely on significant financial support from the manufacturer or rely on operating lessors.
My own prediction for the future is that the largest order for the next generation of narrow bodied aircraft will come from one of the lessors, probably ILFC.
As regards the future of American, it is difficult to see them remaing in their current form. Their domestic market will in my view come under increasing pressure from carriers who are not burdened with the higher costs of the past. Their regional services will come under pressure from the lower cost operators and they will be forced to franchise these services more and more. Their best bet is probably to focus on developing quality long long haul where customers are still prepared to pay a premium for higher levels of service.
As regards the pilots input to the choice of aircraft, you are really living in the past. Airlines in this day and age will select the aircraft that make them the most money. The future trend is for increasingly more aircraft to be leased. Lessors buying large numbers of aircraft will go for commonality wherever possible and airlines will have less say in the final technical specification. This is because aircraft will be expected to fly for several airlines during the course of their operational lives, and nobody will be prepared to pick up significant reconfiguration costs. Involving airline pilots and engineers in defining the aircraft specification without commercial control in my experience often leads to over specificied aircraft whose residual values are compromised as a result.
My own prediction for the future is that the largest order for the next generation of narrow bodied aircraft will come from one of the lessors, probably ILFC.
As regards the future of American, it is difficult to see them remaing in their current form. Their domestic market will in my view come under increasing pressure from carriers who are not burdened with the higher costs of the past. Their regional services will come under pressure from the lower cost operators and they will be forced to franchise these services more and more. Their best bet is probably to focus on developing quality long long haul where customers are still prepared to pay a premium for higher levels of service.
As regards the pilots input to the choice of aircraft, you are really living in the past. Airlines in this day and age will select the aircraft that make them the most money. The future trend is for increasingly more aircraft to be leased. Lessors buying large numbers of aircraft will go for commonality wherever possible and airlines will have less say in the final technical specification. This is because aircraft will be expected to fly for several airlines during the course of their operational lives, and nobody will be prepared to pick up significant reconfiguration costs. Involving airline pilots and engineers in defining the aircraft specification without commercial control in my experience often leads to over specificied aircraft whose residual values are compromised as a result.
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Interesting ideas about American and probably what they would like to do. But there are plenty of other airlines that are facing big aircraft buying decisions. BA is one of them. What to do about the A380 or perhaps the new 747, or replace some of its 744's with 773's? Then what about JAL with its huge fleet of 747's? JAL has always been an industry leader in aircraft procurement, which way will it go?
I have been involved with many aircraft buying decisions over the years and all my experience tells me that I should go for half Airbus and half Boeing by value. That has to be the best decision that any airline can take. That is the only way to stop the manufacturers dominating your life. I was told by a senior LH manager some five years ago that that was exactly their corportae strategy. Why should it be different for any other airline. Easy played the game and won. Maybe when Ryanair go long haul they will buy Airbus.
But if Airbus is thought to be propping up US Air why should Boeing not prop up American? (See the US/America West merger thread).
I have been involved with many aircraft buying decisions over the years and all my experience tells me that I should go for half Airbus and half Boeing by value. That has to be the best decision that any airline can take. That is the only way to stop the manufacturers dominating your life. I was told by a senior LH manager some five years ago that that was exactly their corportae strategy. Why should it be different for any other airline. Easy played the game and won. Maybe when Ryanair go long haul they will buy Airbus.
But if Airbus is thought to be propping up US Air why should Boeing not prop up American? (See the US/America West merger thread).
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chipsbrand: with DL, NW, UA and AA - is there enough Boeing money to prop up everybody?
HP/US owe the 9/11 US Stabilisation fund $1bn between them so the amounts owed by the four abovenamed must be pretty serious.
As for pinhammonds' earlier treatise, a 737 successor is well overdue considering the NG is a third generation of the type when the 320 is still essentially first generation - in some ways its amazing that it still sells as well as it does! Southwest will also be shopping eventually.
However, Boeing's resurgence has not been without serious costs - the closure of the 757 and 717 lines, the death of 744 pax orders, the near end of the 767 line unless the tanker deal is rescued and problems ramping up 777 production combined with an impending move of the entire line. All this, the 787 and now the 797?
Furthermore, with Boeing pushing 737 MPA and AWACS variants they will probably want to maintain the 737 line for a while.
That said, Airbus are playing right into their hands politically. Look at how Boeing is going where the money is and the costs aren't - little if any sentiment to historical production sites. Chirac would never let an Airbus line open in Estonia or Poland or Slovakia if it meant moving production from 35-hr week France - which is why Eastern European airlines won't fall over themselves to buy Airbus as in the recent LOT affair. Even Air France are buying Boeing!
American should take note of BA's recent turnaround - get the debt down, the profits up, the credit rating sorted. Then you can go shopping for the aircraft you want rather than the ones Boeing and GE Capital will let you have.
HP/US owe the 9/11 US Stabilisation fund $1bn between them so the amounts owed by the four abovenamed must be pretty serious.
As for pinhammonds' earlier treatise, a 737 successor is well overdue considering the NG is a third generation of the type when the 320 is still essentially first generation - in some ways its amazing that it still sells as well as it does! Southwest will also be shopping eventually.
However, Boeing's resurgence has not been without serious costs - the closure of the 757 and 717 lines, the death of 744 pax orders, the near end of the 767 line unless the tanker deal is rescued and problems ramping up 777 production combined with an impending move of the entire line. All this, the 787 and now the 797?
Furthermore, with Boeing pushing 737 MPA and AWACS variants they will probably want to maintain the 737 line for a while.
That said, Airbus are playing right into their hands politically. Look at how Boeing is going where the money is and the costs aren't - little if any sentiment to historical production sites. Chirac would never let an Airbus line open in Estonia or Poland or Slovakia if it meant moving production from 35-hr week France - which is why Eastern European airlines won't fall over themselves to buy Airbus as in the recent LOT affair. Even Air France are buying Boeing!
American should take note of BA's recent turnaround - get the debt down, the profits up, the credit rating sorted. Then you can go shopping for the aircraft you want rather than the ones Boeing and GE Capital will let you have.
