One more day: Irish govt due to make its PSO decisions?(Merged)

[akerosid]

One more day: Irish govt due to make its decisions?

Well, all going well and the govt having run out of excuses to do nothing or delay, we should be seeing a decision being made on the three main issues.

I believe these are as follows, although there could be (and I hope there might be) more:

Basically, we need three things:

1) A decision on a new terminal for Dublin Airport.
(What we need is an independently operated terminal, providing much needed competition for the DAA and sufficient growth to allow the airport to handle 30m pax by 2015).

2) A decision on the future ownership of Aer Lingus
(The airline, as we know well, needs to raise funds for future fleet purchases, particularly on the long haul. Realistically, if it's to win any sort of market support, it'll have to be over 50% of the shareholding; can't think markets would be interested in anything that maintained state control, given the govt's record. It will be interesting to see if a Golden Share is retained, or some sort of control over assets, such as LHR slots?)

3) An alleviation of the Shannon stopover, to allow more n/s flights from DUB.
(I am least confident about this, although I believe that if there is no announcement and they just leave it "as is", it will have negative consequences for the sale price of EI and may also influence the intentions of any prospective CEO. There is also the EU issue; did the govt receive the green light from the EU or, given that the EU no longer recognises the Irish/US bilateral, can the govt just go ahead and change it? An intention to change the Canadian bilateral would be welcome, but I don't expect this either.)

Well, we HOPE that tomorrow will, at last, see a decision that should have been taken a long time ago. But what will it be? Anyone want to hazard a guess (or just guess that it'll be a hazard?) as to what it might be?

[Irish Steve]

I suppose we can live in hope!

On the terminal issue, I reckon that they'll duck and run for a bit longer, in that there's so much heat on the monumental b ks that DAA have made of security, they can use the excuse that they have to look again at critical issues before deciding anything.

Yeah!, if they'd done the job properly in the first place, most of these hassles would have been avoided. Then again, I suppose we can't expect pub managers to run an international airport, and in recent years, DUB has become more of a pub and less of an airport with each change!

EI. I think it's clear that they are going to move 51% out of govt ownership, but I'm not sure they will get many takers at a sensible price, given the other uncertainties. It's no good having an airline if they can't operate from their largest base because of security problems. Another useful thing would be a chief executive, I reckon that one is going to be hard to solve, given the uncertainty. Talk about a poison challice, it speaks volumes that WW said he was gone, and BA's chief exec comes to DUB to see (recruit) him. It's only too clear that WW departed because the govt wasn't prepared to make sensible timely decisions. What's new?

SNN. Even the hardest of advocates of the SNN stopover are starting to recognise the writing on the wall, hopefully, a locally based management in SNN will start to promote the place sensibly, instead of the half a d pretence from Dublin.

IF, and it's a big IF, it were done properly, SNN could become a very useful hub for transatlantic operations, even for aircraft as big as the 380. Lots of small feeders from all over the place, in to SNN, then they all get on to a 380, and it's over and back in a reasonable time scale. If it's done right, it could work, as long as the routes and prices are put into place properly. A dream?

Maybe, but with the right economics, on both the short haul and the long haul, it could work. I could see 380's flying SNN to MIA and MCO with feeds using 737's and A320's or smaller, and the like from regional airports in the UK and some of the european states that a 380 won't fit. Other possibles are of course East coast, (JFK or similar,) and LAX. The MCO/MIA routes could be quite good, as they would get good airframe utilisation, given that the 380 is probably going to take longer to turn than the smaller aircraft, so a 9 hour flight with 3 hour turn would be a very good route if the loads can be generated. MCO has to be worth looking at with feeders in from all over the place, given the popularity of the place. Another major advantage would be clearing the pax at SNN before they board, that would be a very big plus factor with the way security and the rest of it is now.

It will be interesting to see if Bertie and the rest of them have the courage to think big and think bold for a change, recent history tends to suggest that they won't, which will be a big opportunity missed.

[akerosid]

CNN reporting live from Merrion Street?

Any moment now, as the pilgrims - devout aviation industry observers from around the world, the faithful watchers of the flying game - observe with baited breath the chimney above government buildings, we expect to see white smoke arising.

The conclave of ministers has been in the cabinet room since early this morning, deliberating, praying for guidance from Above, discussing the pros and cons of the various proposals ...

Unfortunately, so far, we've only seen wisps of black smoke. Do we wait, or will we see Cardinal Bertione come to the window overlooking Merrion Square, announcing those famous words, "Habemus policem " ... "We have a policy".

Sadly no, just black smoke (or was that just the wheels of government generating friction in protest at being pressed into action with only a few months' notice?) ...

[Bearcat]

do you realise that aer lingus on its long haul fleet is back to where it dared it would never go? yes flying junkers across the atlantic....the a330's are tired and are in desperate need to be replaced.....desperate is mild to be honest.

still no cx, a crazy airline....I see FR are now flying to rome from dub....AL will lose on this

i am so frustrated with the governments inept stance. M O'L is right, Bertie is the biggest ditther and union lick for the better of himself as against the better of ireland....we are now back in the 70's with our aviaition poilicy....

terrrible for an expanding country and bob geldof was right....Banana Republic.

[Irish Steve]

just black smoke

Can't say I noticed much of that even, in amongst all the comments about the activities in Rome, I think they decided that hiding would be a safer option.

It's only too clear from posts here and in other places that the Govt has lost the plot, and are now caught between all the differing parties.

MO'L. while being an abrasive and at times offensive individual, has made some valid points, and he's not about to go away, or at least not before the next election, unless he ends up in the Joy over the High Court case.

SIPTU has Bertie by the short and curlies. I don't have much time for any of the unions, there's too much of the same attitude here that brought the unions down in the UK 20 years ago, the only difference is that there's no political party got the bs to stand up to them, especially the unions like SIPTU that represent the civil and semi state workers, who have managed to get all manner of sweeteners over the last few years, without delivering on the productivity side.

Then there's the DAA, who could just about organise a p s up in a brewery, they at least have some practice, and most of the facilities for it, they've been running Ireland's largest pub for years.

There's a need for more terminal space, a second runway, some decent infrastructure, more cargo facilities, the list is endless, and what do we see? Even the basics are being fouled up big time, that's not new work, it's the stuff they are supposed to have been doing for the last nearly3 years, and they still can't get it right, yet no heads have rolled. Typical!!

Aer lingus. There's another story altogether. For the first time in years, there's a chance that the state airline could actually become a stable and viable operation, but for all sorts of reasons, they're in limbo, no chief executive, and several other top posts unfilled, and there's no clear direction from their owners about the future, at a time when urgent and important decisions needed to be made before now.

If nothing else, if it was done right, given the location of Ireland, there are a number of routes that would be very good for the A380, with feeders in to (say) SNN from all over the place, and then onward to (say) MCO with a 380. Given the SNN pre immigration check, and the time SNN to MCO, that would be a veyr good use of an airframe, and with the right feeders from UK regionals, I reckon that flight would be pretty full most of the year, appropriately priced, and it would be getting good utilisation from the airframe. Probably only a dream, even though it could work, finding the people who could make it happen in the present climate is just too hard, there are easier ways to be employed, the fact that WW left EI and within weeks is CEO of BA has to speak volumes!!!

All in all, what we're seeing is a government that's afraid of it's own shadow. I just hope that the electorate remembers this when it's time to decide who's running things in a while, and responds accordingly.

Then again, that's like expecting pink snow!

[akerosid]

I guess the natural conclusion to my skit above (and I trust no one took offence - it was certainly not intended to be disrespectful!) is that Irish aviation needs its own Cardinal Ratzinger ... someone not afraid to kick some butt. (A bit more tolerant, hopefully!)

I'm glad to say that some little progress has been made. The oft discussed aviation lobby group, Grounded, is now up and running. It'll take some time for it to line up and roll, but we're moving in the right direction.

See it at www.grounded-ireland.com

We'll take up the challenges and fight the good fight. Although we know that things are in a bit of a mess, as Irish Steve has pointed, we've also seen that there are quite a few people passionate about the future of Irish aviation. Let's change things!

[MarkD]

Bearcat

while the 330s (remember when EI was pioneering ETOPS) are first-run, they are still mid 90s build 330s, not 1982 767s like Air Canada are operating!

EI needs a fleet update but it also needs more long haul aircraft - it seems to get regularly caught out by tech faults and to have to hire in at short notice.

However, the 330-301s are not likely to be as popular on the leasing market so for EI to try and trade in for leased 330-343Xs pending 350/787 would involve paying a premium which is not in the low cost playbook.

If the bilateral goes then a fleet expansion might bring in a few 332s or 333-343Xs for ORD/LAX (the higher gross weight permitting luxuries like IFE perhaps) and maybe SFO or other West Coast but the 301s will probably be retained indefinitely for the JFK/BOS, pending a full fleet update.

Could be talking through my @rse of course!

[Bearcat]

go see another thread about a newish cyprus 320 about to be chopped.....boeing have a bettter record than airbus re longtivity. I am in no way taking a cheap sot at the 330's but t's just frustrating to see AL slide back to the old days of flying tired machines across the pond.

[MarkD]

bearcat

I did read the thread, the 320 was 17 years old and a newer 735 was getting chopped alongside.

So?

[Irish Steve]

2 days? Naaah, 2 weeks (maybe)

The phrase that sums this up is

"I've thought about it, and my final decision is maybe"!!!

Latest is that the minister will present "joined up writing" plans to cabinet "in about 2 weeks"

For details, see this

[akerosid]

Silver lining?

It is disappointing, but maybe there is a plus side; if the delay means that the govt has taken into account the Skidmore Owings & Merrill report and is actually going to provide a long term solution, then two (and hopefully not more than three) weeks will be time well spent.

The consequences of "wasting" two weeks and coming out with something which is short term, lacking in vision and unable to give us the growth potential we need would be serious, notwithstanding what might be considered "low" expectations. We're now going to get the decision we expected in December, in May. That five months must show some evidence of thought and long term planning.

[akerosid]

Cullen at IMI conference

He had some positive things to say, in fairness, so hopefully the wait will be worthwhile:

Aer Lingus will soon get a clear future strategy with guaranteed funding for the first time instead of the “never-ending uncertainty” and crisis management of the past, Minister for Transport Martin Cullen said today.

Speaking at the Irish Management Institute conference, Mr Cullen said he will be bringing proposals to Cabinet in coming weeks to create an efficient and modern aviation sector in the country.

These plans include the future financing of the State airline, a second terminal at Dublin Airport, expansion into the US market and increased support for Shannon and Cork airports.

[Tom the Tenor]

"The coming weeks" may be understood in any way which suits the Department of Transport.

Government, airports, airlines, unions etc are giving the public the two fingers sign.

The attitude is that if you have to tell the public anything make sure it is the most bizarre, outlandish and unbelievable as you can make it.

[akerosid]

Certainly, there is that risk, Tom. I remember, about 12 years ago, when Maire Geoghegan Quinn was in Transport and said that her decision on the stopover was due "in a matter of weeks"!

However, I think the situation is different now; there's a much greater awareness of the importance of this and I think Cullen recognises as much. The pressure will increase and I would argue that the delay will only serve to increase pressure on the government, because there will be a greater recognition of a well thought out, future focused policy.

Interestingly, this evening, Mary Harney and the Tainiste crossed swords over this; Harney is insisting, quite rightly, on competition whereas Cullen has indicated that the DAA will get to run the terminal. I sincerely hope the PDs will insist on competition; it was part of the program of government and it should be honoured. Indeed, the Tainiste hinted that she would be raising the issue with the Taoiseach.

On the plus side, however, Cullen hinted very clearly that there will be increased US access.

[Sean Dillon]

Irish PSO Routes

Does anyone have any info on the state of play of who is getting the Irish PSO routes that cam up for tender at the beginning of the year ?

Who's odds on favourite then ????

Could someone let me know what the routes are exactly ?

Thanks
SD

[airhumberside]

The routes are Dublin-Galway/Kerry/Knock/Sligo/Donegal/Londonderry

[akerosid]

Well, there I was, thinking a decision might be made tomorrow, 3rd May, but the news stories yesterday (a mayday warning ) suggested that a decision is likely to be delayed; the PDs are digging their heels in over the whole competition area, with suggestions of fraught meetings between Ahern and Harney. Clearly, MH is not going to accept the kind of fudge that was suggested in some of the papers a while back: that a decision would be made for the DAA to build the terminal and the whole process of tendering could be put on the long finger (before ultimately being given to the DAA, once the PDs were got rid of).

It's not before time that MH digs her heels in - and no doubt she's enjoying the discomfort being caused to former PD, Cullen. However, it's pretty clear that if FF got its way on its own, the result would have been pretty dire.

Trouble is, of course, that the longer we wait for the terminal decision, the longer we (and Aer Lingus) also have to wait for a decision on the other issues.

Let's hope the delay won't be too much longer and that a useful, long term solution can be found.

[ecj]

Decision due about 22 May with new arrangements to start 22 July.

[Honiley]

I'd heard through a mate that Loganair have won the contract and were indeed looking into a potential DUB base....

[symphonyangel]

Isn't it interesting that the Irish sort out how to avail themselves of the PSO and the Scots and Northern Irish sort out how to avail themselves of the UK's Route Development Fund, but the English have not found a way of supporting new flights to their regional airports?