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bmi / Virgin again???

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Old 29th Oct 2004, 15:15
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RB said that not setting up a low cost shorthaul airline from scratch (Virgin Express) was a huge mistake as you can't take cost out once its in. He compared VEX with Virgin Blue and plans for Virgin America. Buying high-cost BMI wouldn't seem to fit with this philosophy - unless it was for the value of the LHR slots alone.
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Old 29th Oct 2004, 20:16
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As LHR operators go, bmi is low-cost.
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Old 29th Oct 2004, 21:28
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I have some difficulty in believing either that Virgin will be able to acquire bmi or that any transaction between the two companies will be easy.

This is not an exhaustive list of issues that will have to be addressed but it does include issues that will focus the mind.

Virgin is an organisation in which the importance of the brand cannot be underestimated. The Virgin brand is Richard Branson’s symbol of success. It is impossible to believe that he will ever let it go. That also means that he will want to control it under all circumstances. If you talk to people in Virgin I am sure that they will echo this view. My contacts in that company certainly do. The whole industry is certain, nevertheless, that Virgin wants many more slots at LHR. These could be bought from bmi without having to buy the company.

I once met Sir Michael Bishop. It was at a meeting at which he fiercely defended both his own interests and those of the company that he effectively created. I cannot imagine that he will ever do anything else. Why should he? He has also made a large amount of money out of aviation, probably more cash than anyone else. The sale of British Regional to BA guaranteed that. I am sure that he knows full well what his company is worth and he will want cash out of any transaction. Lots of it, probably.

What did Lufthansa court bmi to the point that they won against an alternative offering from Air France? My guess is that they saw the opportunity to have a go at BA on their home ground. It was widely rumoured in the days of Marshall and Ruhnau that the two men could never even speak to one another. The last time I met a Lufthansa manager he expressed very substantial contempt for BA. But another option must have been the chance to create a Star Alliance hub at LHR.

What do SQ think about it all? To make any deal work at all they would have to subscribe to some new shares. Why should they when they have probably had very little return on their investment in Virgin so far?

Across all industries agreed mergers rarely work. To be successful they have to be hostile. But how can you have a hostile take-over of a private company such as bmi? It is impossible.

How do you reconcile Virgin interests, Bishop interests and Star interests in any merger deal. I cannot see it. Equally I cannot see why LH/SAS would agree to bmi selling slots to Virgin, a carrier that they must see as a dangerous upstart.

The idea of VS and BD getting together sounds great. But the obstacles are huge.
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Old 30th Oct 2004, 06:12
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You lot do complicate things!

bmi is losing money in bucketloads and demonstrating little or no ability to solve the problem. Not only bad medicine for MB, but extremely damaging to Lufthansa and SAS, who have to foot a chunk of the bill. The losses can't continue. Something has to give. LH and SAS may well be glad to be rid, or may negotiate a slice of the spoils after the carnage. It may be just the lever they've been looking for to rid them of MB.

Que Sir RB and his big bank account.

Merger, no.

Buyout/takeover, yes.

Motive -- Heathrow slots, pure and simple. bmi's fleet, shorthaul operation and pilots are of no interest to RB whatsoever.
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Old 30th Oct 2004, 18:49
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Oh, for goodness' sake.

Suppose for a minute that Virgin does take over bmi. Supposing all it wants is slots. The first problem Branson has is that for each shorthaul aircraft he takes out of service at LHR (there are ... well, let's say 20), he will need about four longhaul aircraft to service the slots. And for each longhaul aircraft, he will need twice as many crews than he would for a shorthaul aircraft. So let's say just one bmi aircraft is taken out for using the slots. The requirement for crews goes from five to forty. Oh, and the crews are bigger too. And the slots have to be kept going, otherwise they are lost, I believe, so this process would have to be gradual as new longhaul a/c are phased in.

So Branson wouldn't have to use many of the slots at LHR for longhaul to suddenly find himself needing a lot of pilots. bmi pilots are paid less than Virgin ones, I believe - he would be a lot better off keeping them on their existing contract (if he could get away with it) and gettnig them to work for him than making them redundant and then probably having to re-employ them in short order anyway. And bmi pilots are generally "high-cycle" pilots with pretty good operational skills, I understand, and who are well-regarded in the LHR operating environment.

That's why, regardless of other examples of "take-overs", I don't think that bmi pilots would have anything in particular to fear.

But any "takeover" would have to be with the consent of the shareholders - remember, it is not a plc - do Sir Michael/DLH/SQ appear to be getting cold feet? 'Cos that would be necessary as well.

Also, I seriously doubt that bmi is losing "bucketloads" of money.
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Old 30th Oct 2004, 22:08
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Val D'Isere-

I do not think there is the slightest likelihood of bmi facing any sort of imminent crisis. Airlines habitually lose money and survive. bmi has demonstrated admirable survival skills over several decades. Even if it was running out of cash it only has to sell a few slots at LHR to keep going potentially for years.
Do not underestimate the determination of Sir Michael Bishop to ensure the survival of his airline and to add long haul routes. Those are believed to be his dearest ambition now.

Sure, Virgin will need more slots at LHR and they may well have to buy them and bmi MIGHT be a source. But to buy the company just to get its slots is absurd.

I have done some calculations and on the assumption that Virgin is able to acquire one additional long haul aircraft every two months indefinitely into the future it would need between 80 and 100 additional long haul aircraft to be able to use up the bmi slots at LHR. (The exact figures depend on the sector lengths flown) On that basis they would take between 13 and 16 years to use up the bmi slots. As of last May they had 30 operational aircraft. If they acquired bmi they would have to use the slots or lose them. Patently it is absurd that they would take over bmi and shut down short haul operations. That is an impossible scenario.

Another complication that I did not list before is the position of the regulators. bmi currently provide the only domestic competition for BA out of LHR. Any loss of thet competition would appal the regulators and you can be sure that they would do whatever was necessary to ensure that that competition continued. That process would certainly include a reference to the Competition authorities and past precedents that any "merger" would be conditional on slots being released to new entrant competitors. EasyJet, Ryanair, Air Berlin, bmibaby, frankly everybody would then jostle to get on those domestic routes.

No, the rumours are wishful thinking by people who seem to want the demise of bmi and that ain't going to happen.
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Old 31st Oct 2004, 06:21
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bmi is losing money fast and MB's bank account is taking the hit.

LH and SAS must be losing patience with having to pay out their share of the losses.

The pressure is on to either restore profitability or get out of the business.

.....any "merger" would be conditional on slots being released to new entrant competitors. EasyJet, Ryanair, Air Berlin, bmibaby, frankly everybody would then jostle to get on those domestic routes.
Hence RB can achieve his aim of as many LHR slots as he judges he'll require, operate shorthaul on those slots as longhaul gradually replaces them and leave the remainder to the shorthaul vultures.....for a price.

In fact, as a separate venture, bmibaby could become EasyVirgin* from LHR under RB ownership, though lo-cost from LHR would, I strongly suggest, be somewhat misplaced, to say the least.

For RB to "buy" bmi for the slots is not absurd.......it depends upon the price versus the value! That's called, simply, good business (not to mention common sense)!



*OK, I'll admit that "EasyVirgin" is a contradiction!

Last edited by Val d'Isere; 31st Oct 2004 at 06:33.
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Old 31st Oct 2004, 16:53
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And where exactly would a merger between bmi & Virgin leave two of bmi's subsidiaries - bmi regional & bmibaby?

Here at baby we're always the last to find out about anything, but would anyone care to speculate what will happen?

We keep being told that we're being seperated far from mainline, with rumours of a sale to another no-frills airline, a change of ownership (getting rid of the bmi from the name) & about expansion with a different fleet type. All of it seems idle gossip, but its always interesting to know who knows more, and usually PPRUNe finds it out about 2 weeks before the rest of the airline does.
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 09:47
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Val

Whats your beef!
Sounds like you have a problem with bmi,its Crews and the prospect of a possible merge.
Maybe scared of loosing a few places on a Seniority List!
Or is it the competition with" good crews with respcted training system".
As for bmi loosing money, I presume from that statement you fill in your own tax return!
The bish is light-years ahead of you and your small predictions, just remember he has already done the long haul many years ago.

I hope that your flying has no reflection on your postings.

Rgds K.I.L.
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 10:44
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bmibaby-

As I do not think there is any likelihood of Mainline being sold to Virgin I am sure that it is pointless to speculate on the consequences of such a transaction of the other companies (baby and regional). But commonsense says that if mainline were soled large scale funds would be available to Sir Michael to develop these two businesses.

The much bigger question is about whether baby has sufficient strength to survive and prosper in a market which is getting tougher with each day that passes. In such conditions history tells us that airlines in clear and distinct niches will be OK. Airlines that have critical mass and real strength will also be OK. The problem comes when the airline neither has a distinct niche nor critical mass. Ask yourself What is baby's niche? It operates (or will operate) a limited range of services out of four UK airports. (EMA, MAN, CWL and BHX). It is up against head to head competition on all except CWL. I think it is trying to do too much and it therefore needs to concentrate its resources.

While it is so fragmented it would not be an attractive buy for EZY or RYR. but it might appeal to someone like Air Berlin. A merger with German wings is also a possibility but I am not sure what strength could be wrung out of such a business. In the meantime good luck with the rumours thast cllearly abound in your company.
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 11:19
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Val,it is not pilot's jobs that are at risk. The jobs at risk are virtually all those who work in that sleepy valley at Castle Donington ( Donington Hall and Hastings House). The chances of therm getting other airline jobs in that part of the world must be very slim.
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 12:17
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Critical mass

Hi Pinhammond,

Critical mass dosen't even gaurantee success with both Delta, United, US Airways all struggling.

On the otherhand, Southwest, Ryanair and Jetblue all use their critical mass to their advantage. So, it all comes down to cost, bottom line and service. Baby offers a great service, the routes are building and they come from a nice family. Ultimately on the routes they currently operate they should know the market better than a new entrant so their in a strong position to take on a good fight. The only cloud being their costs! If they are much higher than Ryanair, Eazy etc, obviously they need to look over their shoulders.

Like the 3 rules of property, location, location and location. LO-Co's have a similar tone............cost, cost, cost.

Cheerio

Shamrogue
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 16:44
  #53 (permalink)  
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Sure, Virgin will need more slots at LHR and they may well have to buy them and bmi MIGHT be a source. But to buy the company just to get its slots is absurd.
Oh, I don't know, it's a plan that BA has followed assiduously for many years.

However, it is the merger and the balance between long and short haul that makes the sense of this and that is why the rumour continually resurfaces. I would suggest that the full suite of International/Regional/Domestic/Baby would be a problem and many have speculated as to where they will go. Something will HAVE to be sold off to balance the books and pay for the redundancies, which will be a neccessary part of the deal.

What I think is the highest probability, is that a merger will take place. However, it will have to wait for some years. Probably until one of other of the leading lights of the two organisations is no longer occupying the chair at the table that they currently do! I do not wish ill health on either of them, as both have done incredibly well. But, it appears from afar, that it is their personal success that prevents them from walking across the bridge and bringing greater success.

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"I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don't let anybody tell you any different." Kurt Vonnegut, Jr
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Old 1st Nov 2004, 17:38
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Shamroque,

I know many people who have used baby and they tell me that the service is good. That applies for flights from Nottingham, Manchester, Teeside and Cardiff. The only complaint that I have heard is about prices from Cardiff. But when my friends do not like the price they just go to Bristol and get EasyJet instead. It may be cost etc for the operator but for the traveller it is all about price and there is virtually no brand loyalty.

The baby critical mass is obviously total at Cardiff and I think it unlikely that any other airline would think seriously about taking them on there. But at Manchester both GB airways and Jet2 think they must be vulnerable and Flybe obviously fancy their chances at Birmingham. Ryanair obviously have critical mass at Stansted to the point that no new entrant would seriously think of challenging them there unless they had something going well for them. (A good example would be Air Berlin who have a strong home base in Germany).

US Airways has been a basket case for many years and in my view survival is unlikely.

Delta have made some serious mistakes. One of them was trying to compete with American at DFW. AA has critical mass there and Delta has no prospect of ever getting it. Thay have now recognised this and are withdrawing from DFW. Never underestimate your competitor is an elementary rule in air transport. Delta's failure in that has cost them very dearly.

If baby can get a grip over their costs and continue with their excellent service start and build up some good networks at UK airports where they are the dominant so-called low cost airline they have the prospect of doing well. I wish them luck.
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Old 2nd Nov 2004, 13:41
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PAXboy.Ultimately only two things matter in amalgamations. Price and personalities. You have dealt with the personality issue very convincingly. Does anyone believe that Virgin could find 1 billion in cash to pay for bmi because I do not.
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Old 6th Nov 2004, 13:54
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I agree almost entirely with pinhammond. Virgin's brand is its primary asset, and the Virgin Group will not countenance the dilution of that asset under any circumstances. That is why a 'merger' with bmi is out of the question from Virgin's point of view. A takeover of bmi would only be possible with the agreement of all five shareholders (RB, Bish, Singapore, Lufthansa and SAS). RB and Singapore may be keen on the deal, but SAS and Lufthansa would want to see some return - or at least an end to losses - on their years of investment. Sir Michael, I imagine, wants to see his brand continue in some form or other after his retirement.

There is also no question of a wholesale transfer of slots or other assets to Virgin even if a takeover were desired by all of the shareholders, as (as has been suggested above) other airlines would probably be entitled to an opportunity to bid for the slots. Equally, Virgin could not use all those slots for longhaul routes. It's not a matter of aircraft or crews, it's a matter of international route licensing agreements; they don't appear overnight!

There could also be no easily acceptable way of Virgin absorbing bmi's flight deck community. With bmi being considerably older than Virgin, there are pilots at bmi who have far more service than the most senior Virgin pilots. If Virgin were to finance such a takeover, it would not accept bmi's pilots moving ahead of its own in the combined seniority list.

A far more likely scenario (should any of this ever come to more than a discussion point!) would be for Virgin to take over some or all of SAS's and Lufthansa's shareholding in bmi (and maybe some of Bish's, if he needed the dosh!), and for a long term, very gradual, shift in bmi's business focus to begin. I think bmi baby and regional would be sold off as a going concern with their own AoC(s), and slots would be dripfed to Virgin over time as lossmaking LHR routes were scrapped, and as Virgin could use them. bmi would retain some longhaul, but perhaps either as a specialist niche player in certain high-value markets or, alternatively, as a low-cost bucket and spade carrier. The two companies' seniority lists would remain separate.

However, as I've said earlier in the thread, I really don't believe any of this will happen. The personalty issue is just too big, and the regulators would screw it anyway!
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Old 18th Nov 2004, 19:07
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I have been away for a couple of weeks and am just catching up with this thread again. I was very surprised to see that no mention has been made of the deal between BAA and various airlines about the use of LHR terminals after T5 is opened. Apparently T1 is to be used exclusively by Star Alliance airlines. It is to be redeveloped including the construction of more stands. It will be the only terminal used by Star airlines at LHR. There will be no room there for Virgin, who will be at either T4 or T3. If ther ehad been serious discussions between bmi and VS any such announcement about Star at T1 would have had to be delayed. I think this puts the last heavy nail into the coffin of speculation about any merger between VS and bmi. It will not happen.

Rumour has it from Crawley that there is dismay in a certain headquarters building about the trading position and about some lost opportunities which will have set back the company.
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