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Old 1st Jun 2009, 14:41
  #281 (permalink)  
 
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I think it is likely that LDY will become a Ryanair base, afterall that is what the runway and apron extensions were all about.

They could of course just base aircraft for their existing flights there but normally they seem to announce new flights when they announce a base.

However LDY already has more routes than many a base airport so perhaps any announcement of a base would see increased frequency on existing routes, but I'm not sure if this is likely given that they have decreased frequency on their busy Stansted route.

As to new routes, Manchester and Edinburgh would be definite runners given our expected share (15%) of the total Northern Ireland passenger pool to these two destinations.

Paris: they talked about this years ago, even before BFS had a flight, but the runway extension was not ready so nothing happened.

Tenerife, Palma, etc: The jurys still out on whether these would be runners. There's been a successful charter to Palma for years, but of course charter is a very different proposition to schedule. The Alicante route seems to be booking well on some dates and miserably on other dates. It was supposed to be year round but has not be continued for the winter. We'll have to wait and see if it is even included in next year's summer schedule before a guess could be made on other sunshine destinations.

What about a Madrid flight as there are currently none from Northern Ireland? Or Brussels or Frankfurt, two big Ryanair destinations. Any takers?
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 16:41
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With the number of Germans who have holiday homes in Donegal, then Frankfurt may be a goer. Seems to work for Kerry (though I thought I read somewhere they were cutting activity at Hahn....could be wrong though).

Alicante seems to be booking very well if friends' in the NWs efforts to get flights are anything to go by; which considering how the £'s not up to much against the Euro is a surprise.

I'd still like to see Aer Arann start a few routes. MAN and EDI would be great, and BRS as well. Their much smaller aircraft may be a more realistic proposition for Derry.
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 16:54
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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Just received email from Balkan Holidays. Their programme is onsale for summer 2010 and includes departures from City of Derry.

City of Derry - Bourgas 21 Jun - 02 Aug 2010 Arr 07.45 - Dep 08.45

Could see BH Air in Londonderry next year!!!
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 19:35
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I think you under estimate the potential passenger numbers on Manchester and Edinburgh. Both EDI and MAN have over 400,000 passengers per annum from Northern Ireland, and taking 15% share* for LDY leaves a potential of over 60,000 pax p.a., the seemingly magic number for Ryanair to run a daily flight.

Bristol and Newcastle on the other hand have only 260K pax p.a. from N.I and so LDY could only expect to attract 40K low cost pax, too little for FYR for a daily flight but perhaps workable for a 3x per week service. Nevertheless there would seemingly be sufficient numbers for a daily service using a smaller aircraft on a different price/passenger numbers basis and so could be attractive to the likes of Aer Arann.

* 15% is the share of NI pax that LDY had on Glasgow, Liverpool and Bristol routes in 2007 and accordingly would seem the airport catchment %.
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 19:49
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Yeah, I meant RE to BRS. Should've been clearer on that.
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 20:02
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but could LDY having more scheduled services harm the aviation business in N.I? (stealing PAX from BFS and BHD.. as they would see numbers go down, which is generally bad for business, could lead to route cuts / job loss)
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 20:42
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What a strange comment!

Is LDY not also in Northern Ireland? How could LDY gaining routes be bad for aviation?

Furthermore I refute any concept of LDY "stealing" passengers. LDY has a catchment area the same as any other airport. Those passengers choosing to fly from the airport instead of the other two Belfast airports when the flights are available are therefore just those passengers within LDY's catchment area. And if that means lower pax numbers at BFS or BHD, that is of no concern to those passengers within the LDY catchment area.
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 20:47
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Falcon announced flights from LDY to Varna a few years ago and then mysteriously pulled the plug. Hopefully Balkan Holidays will have better luck.

Last edited by Amelia Earhart; 1st Jun 2009 at 20:50. Reason: typo
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Old 1st Jun 2009, 22:02
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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i dont see how its a strange comment, but each to their own i guess...

i have no problems with LDY expanding its routes etc as it will be of great convenience to those in the area... i said aviation business (from the business/income point of view) at the minute im sure theres a lot of PAX who travel from the LDY catchment area for flights from BFS/BHD (theres even some who travel from across the boarder) by offering more flights (to the same destinations, as we all know most N.I travellers think that only Spain / Canaries exists outside of the UK) its going to spread out who flies from where in an already small country it will have an impact on loads at BFS/BHD and in turn lead to flight reductions.. jobs etc

i hope ive worded that better, but im sure most will see were im coming from...?

it'll be very interesting how it all plays out, only time will tell....
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 10:07
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Good to see another charter at LDY
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Old 2nd Jun 2009, 13:03
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In response to message 288 (tigger 2k8) : no it wont lead to job cuts and route cuts but it may lead to route and job redistrubution to the North West. It's called competition and maybe an end to the Belfast Airports believing they have some god-given right to "steal" ( your description) the north-west passengers from City of Derry Airport. In reality, I shouldnt think that neither EGAA or EGAC have too much to keep them awake at night - ... yet ! but the days of having to do that gawd - awful drive to at least Antrim may be coming to an end if the management at City of Derry can get its backside into gear in terms of meaningful route development.

Seperate subject - anyone thinking of checking out the video of Bellarena DR300 G-BVYG doing an Emergency landing at EGAE on sunday 31st, were he was one wheel short of a full undercarrage, don't. The video ends just as the plane touches down. Great job by all concerned, especially the pilot - no drama and thankfully no injuries.
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Old 21st Jun 2009, 22:24
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Alicante Route

While the official figures don't come out until the middle of next month, anecdotal evidence and a quick scout of the Ryanair website would reveal that flights have been heavily subscribed on the outwards journey from LDY to ALC and less so on the return leg from ALC to LDY (which would imply that the population of the North West has decreased, at least temporarily).

Outward flights have above average Ryanair loading until mid July after which loading decreases but then increases on the ALC to LDY leg. In the next six weeks, at least 3 flights are already sold out with 2 more with less than 5 seats left, 1 with less than 10 seats, 5 with less than 15 and 2 others with only 20 and 25 seats respectively. That's a total of 13 of the 24 flights with above average loads with still some weeks left to sell seats.

The picture becomes less clear from August onwards so either everyone who wanted to fly has done so early or else a lot of people have left their bookings until the last minute. Either way it is too early to say whether the route will be a sucess to the point that Ryanair will reinstate the route next summer, but so far so good.
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Old 27th Jun 2009, 14:37
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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European route conundrum

A twice weekly return flight (the minimum useful service on a international route) using a typical Ryanair plane at their average loading (84%) carries 33022 passengers per annum.

On the domestic routes it serves, LDY seems to capture about 15% of the NI market. So for the above route to be successful would seemingly require a total NI passenger pool of about 220,000.

Interestingly no NI international route has this volume of traffic, the closest being Malaga with about 190,000 pax p.a.

Does this therefore mean that no international routes can be successful from LDY?

Several points:

1) No existing Ryanair route from LDY has loads approaching 85% (perhaps due to the self imposed seat limit prior to the runway extension) and yet Ryanair have shown themselves prepared to operate from there and announce new routes (and cut routes!), so what is the least acceptable loading factor to Ryanair?

2) Limiting flights on a seasonal basis could allow a successful route even with a much smaller passenger pool. (ie: the summer only Alicante route)

3) Establishing routes that do not currently exist (Madrid, Brussels, Frankfurt) would allow the airport to attract the entire passenger pool for those routes rather than just competing for a share of existing routes which are unlikely to have a sufficiently large pool to be viable.

4) Domestic routes have a high percentage of business travellers and so have been dominated by the Belfast airports due to the concentration of business and government interests in that area. Business travellers value convenience above cost and so are less flexible about travelling further to an airport just for cheap flights. Holiday makers however are prepared to travel further so perhaps an international flight from LDY could have a larger catchment area than the 15% domestic market.

5) Domestic travel is normally "necessary travel" for business, family or social reasons whereas international travel is normally optional and so the very existence of an international route can "create" passengers, thus it is not a simple matter of merely sharing the existing passenger pool.

6) Demand for inward domestic routes are driven by business and family ties and so therefore by population levels. However inward international travel is driven by the tourist product rather than by population levels. Therefore the normal catchment area percentages do not apply. The northwest tourist product (Derry walls, Donegal) is probably the best in NI and so LDY could expect a larger share of inward international travel. However, thus far NI has proven itself very poor at attracting foreign vistors and so the international routes are dominated by outward travel, a situation that is unlikely to change until the government / tourist board invest in promoting this area internationally.

For the record, in 2008 the main NI international routes were:

Destination Passengers Served by

Malaga 187529 BFS
Barcelona/Reus 168654 BFS & LDY
Palma De Mallorca 156641 BFS & LDY
Paris 141472 BFS & BHD
Amsterdam 138669 BFS
Faro 128091 BFS
New York 99714 BFS
Alicante 97098 BFS
Tenerife 93725 BFS

Other routes served surprisingly small numbers such as Rome (36545), Berlin (29656), Warsaw (26874), Toronto (19895) and Budapest (8822), though I'm not sure if these were seasonal or if they commenced or ceased operations during the year.
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Old 27th Jun 2009, 15:17
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair at LDY

1) No existing Ryanair route from LDY has loads approaching 85% (perhaps due to the self imposed seat limit prior to the runway extension) and yet Ryanair have shown themselves prepared to operate from there and announce new routes (and cut routes!), so what is the least acceptable loading factor to Ryanair?
Amelia Earhart
You make some interesting comments here and read with interest. I think that at City of Derry airport there are some unique factors especially when compared to Belfast airports. So when we talk about what is the ´least acceptable loading factor acceptable´, i think that these may be relevant. Please disagree/agree as appropriate.

Ryanair has some very short sectors from LDY eg Glasgow PIK and Liverpool. These short flights can fill in nicely between longers sectors from those airports and as such dont cost as much to operate.

Secondly, what is the deal at LDY for costs to operate, or are there any? I dont know the actuals but the media seems to suggest that the council in Derry are paying a fortune to have Ryanair there?

Finally, there is clear evidence that Ryanair has cut back their flying schedule on the London routes in the recent seasons, is this in an attempr to extract higher fares?

So based on these ideas it may have a significance on what the minimum load factor should be.

I still think that a daily LGW Aer Lingus service would do well. And what about doing a LDY/AGP route with one stop at LGW?

EI-BUD
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Old 28th Jun 2009, 12:41
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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The Northern Ireland passenger pool to both LGW and AGP and LDY's projected share would indicate that flights would be viable.

I wouldn't expect Aer Lingus to be interested given their commitment to BFS, however Ryanair serve both these destinations but due to their withdrawal of STN flights from LDY and the way they have timetabled that route with the LTN route, I couldn't see them putting on a LGW flight either.

But if the ALC route is successful then AGP would be an obvious other route.

Now while the ALC route is viewed locally as LDY to ALC it is actually an ALC to LDY route (ie: the aircraft are ALC based), so would the introduction of, say, an AGP route, be AGP to LDY or would a base be formed at LDY following the recent apron extensions.
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Old 30th Jun 2009, 00:00
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When one sees the variety of routes from an airport like, for instance Exeter, could it be argued that Derry has hamstrung itself by being so dependent on RYR?

Undoubtedly RYR has fueled Derry's growth, but has the capacity for routes been attained prematurely by the size of aircraft RYR use?

AE/EI-BUD, as ever very interesting and thought-provoking posts.
Thank you both for keeping this thread fresh and alive.
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Old 30th Jun 2009, 13:40
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Your point about route capacity hamstringing the airport's development is an interesting point.

On the routes that LDY serves it seems to take about 15% of the Northern Ireland passenger pool, but the airport serves only two of the big four London airports, only serves Glasgow and not Edinburgh, and only serves Liverpool and not currently Manchester.

Now Ryanair reduced Stansted services when introducing the Luton service and withdrew the seemingly successful East Midlands route when introducing the Birmingham service. So is it possible that Ryanair consider the catchment percentage of the airport to be lower than it might seem to be from simply looking at the routes served and that in fact Glasgow is considered a proxy route fto Edinburgh for Northwest travellers, and similarly Liverpool for Manchester and that that explains the seeming reluctance to intoduce services on these route despite the large NI passenger pool to these airports. It surely can't be to do with available aircraft as Ryanair parked 14 planes over the winter. Furthermore is Ryanair's presence on these routes discouraging other airlines from looking at EDI, MAN and LGW.

In reference to EI Bud's question about operating costs from LDY, I believe it was revealed in the local media that the airport were charging Ryanair £100 per turn around. I'm not sure if there were other costs or if the airport merely hopes to gain income from car parking but of course the council looks at the bigger picture of improving the local economy by improving connections to the area. However given the annual £4 million subvention, it doesn't seem to be much of a model for running a commercially successful airport.
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Old 30th Jun 2009, 17:14
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cuthere/amelia thanks for your comments. I like to see the Derry thread alive and open. It is an airport that I love to see progressing and one that I think has alot of potential.

I was travelling back to BFS from Manchester with Bmibaby. A number of the passengers were sitting close to me and I got chatting. They had travelled from Derry and some from Donegal to BFS to join the flight to MAN and were now returning.

What I observe from some of my work in the Derry/Londonderry area is that alot of people dont even check the offerings from the City of Derry airport. While the ones that do think that it is marvellous.

What is needed in my view are essentially 2 things.

1. Advertise strongly locally. An innovative marketing plan that sells the benefits of using the City of Derry airport. KNock airport have done this as far a field as Enniskillen with some degree of success. Ie Rather than going to BFS/BHD or DUB. Certainly I know there are a wider choice of routes from Belfast but there are still opportunities.
2. Try to get the main cities served directly from LDY. MAN EDI LGW. Take the reasons for going to BFS/BHD away.

Donegal is a popular destination abroad so link up with the ROI tourist authority to promote the airport and the region on a joint basis.


More enthusiasm is needed locally and some investment into local awareness could do alot.

Still amazes me that nobody has been able to attract another carrier on the London Market. Why would Easyjet not look at a daily 319 to LGW. Some mornings Ryanair have 2 flight closely enought timed to LTN and STN and no evening service. Certainly getting a proper service that allows a day return would pay off in the long run?

What do anyone else think?

EI-BUD
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Old 30th Jun 2009, 17:43
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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EI-BUD> Point 1 is an interesting one and one I've thought about myself. Traveling from Belfast to Derry the other week, I was astonished to see RYR billboards in Dungiven (about 15 miles from LDY!) advertising their flight offers from BELFAST CITY!!!

I have relatives in Derry who seem to remember similar billboards actually IN Derry!!! Crazy!! Maybe RYR feel they don't have to advertise flights from LDY. Who knows the logic?

The demand is obviously there; why else would companies such as the Airpoter be able to thrive?

There are several carriers who could offer an extra rotation or two to the LON airports. Flybe, Easyjet and Aer Lingus are the obvious ones. No doubt if any of them did RYR would either compete aggressively, or threaten the council with withdrawal.

If I was involved with management of LDY, I'd be ramming home the point to RYR that they got the runway extension (at the cost of £5m according to the BBC) that they demanded and now it's time for some payback; and I don't think a half-ar$ed service to STN/LTN which is essentially of no use to businesses who may want a day-trip is that thank you. The messing around with timetables (eg: PIK daily, then four/wk, then daily, then five/wk etc etc) doesn't help.

As I highlighted earlier, perhaps LDY having RYR is actually a hindrance to development, not a help.
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Old 30th Jun 2009, 19:33
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I see the airport has now started pushing the planes now.
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