new longhaul fleet for Aer Lingus

[Shamjet]

Rumour has it Mr Walsh is being courted by boeing again, but this time they're offering the new, made to measure, 7e7.??

Is this posssible after he has just grabbed all those shiny new airbus 320's??

Or is walsh once again trying to bluff his way to more Airbus magic?
His obvious upcoming exploration of eastern airspace is just about to be unveiled , perhaps after the summer rush???

SJ

[WHBM]

Shamjet:

You will find that the sales departments from both major manufacturers are speaking to all potential customers all the time, with new deals, new proposals, etc. It's their job !

The sales juniors get given the "unlikely cases" first, to see how well they do. If there's a bite the heavyweight team move in.

[akerosid]

Although the conventional wisdom certainly favours Airbus in this case, Boeing should not be ruled out. Remember, Aer Lingus is waiting for a decision on new US access before deciding on a new fleet. With current disputes over cabotage (which EI isn't interested in), such a decision could take a long time, in which case EI is dependant on a special Irish/US deal.

Things becoming clearer now? "We'll give you access if you make the right fleet decision . . ."

In addition to this, EI has to ask whether the 333 is really the right aircraft for it to grow on t/a routes. The 332 is fine (although they really need to look into their service product, generally), but it does need to look ahead. A deal for a new aircraft would allow EI to inccorporate a new service product (PTVs etc.) and it would have an aircraft (the 772) with growth potential, which the 333 doesn't have.

Boeing will be well aware of EI's growth ambitions and therefore, it will see the airline as a potential 7E7 customer, which is a good incentive for giving them a good deal. If it can support and facilitate the growth of a good customer, it means more orders. Does Airbus have the same incentive to facilitate this growth? It may well feel that with the 320 order in the bag, it has EI in its pocket . . .

This will be an interesting contest.

[akerosid]

Aertel is reporting that SB had discussions with his US counterpart on EU/US access and is referring to an October date for an agreement; as well as being later than hoped, the proximity to what's likely to be a particularly vicious election might delay it until early 2005.

If EI is not likely to get increased US access this year, it might be more likely to look east for expansion. I don't know how the increasingly complicated entry restrictions (fingerprinting, data sharing etc.) for the US might work against EI; if there's a big bust-up between the EU and US over this, increased access for EI might end up being a pyrrhic victory.

Finally, I wonder what the chances are of a side deal being done between Ireland and the US, subject to EI making the "right" aircraft decision . . .

[mini]

Given Mr Walshe's remarks following the shorthaul fleet deal - fleet standardisation, lower costs etc. I can't see EI going anywhere but Airbus, its pretty certain that the longhaul fleet renewal was also considered/discussed during negotiations.

EI are on a conservative footing prior to the inevitable sell off, taking a "gamble" on the 7E7 doesn't seem to fit the picture, regardless of whatever "proposal" Boeing presents.

Just watching the order wires, it seems that Boeing have taken their eye off the ball recentely, I hope this changes, stiff competition is in everyones interest.

[akerosid]

This week's Flight Intl reports that Aer Lingus is
examining dumping its A321s in favour of an all-A320 fleet. The
airline also said it will require a 6,500nm (12,000km) widebody in
future, and will consider the A330-200 and -300 as well as the B777 and 7E7.

OK, on the one hand. one might say they have to include Boeing to make sure Airbus doesn't think it has the order in the bag.

On the other hand, the A330-300 is certainly not going to be able to do 6,500nm with any kind of decent payload, if at all. Where's the growth potential for the A330-200. Notice that the A340 has been omitted altogether (presumably due to runway length considerations at DUB?). So, if the new routes are successful, there's nowhere to go from the 332.

Boeing, on the other hand, has a pretty decent range (of aircraft, as well as "range" literally!) and gives EI growth potential and with Seamus B. now talking of an agreement on new US routes not being made before October, a deal with Boeing might "grease the wheels" a bit, by encouraging the US authorities to open some new gateways to EI.

Very interesting times ahead . . .

[Tom the Tenor]

Dumping the A321s is not such a fab idea and certainly not off the Cork-Heathrow services as the last few weeks can testify. Loads have been at 100 per cent for the four daily flights or at worst just literally a handful short.

Fine, if in the future they put on about two extra A320 flights to make up the shortfall. Thinking about it that would not be a bad idea - lot of new destinations could probably be started ex ORK!

How good a performer would a 772ER be off DUB's RW10/28 - could the aircraft's full capability be used? And what about the improved A340-300E that South African Airways use - is take off performance anyway better there?

[akerosid]

Hi Tom,

You're right about the 777; I remember having this discussion on the Triple 7 Yahoogroup a while back; the 777-200ER could not depart 28 on a n/s stop flight of 6,500nm. Perhaps the -200LR would have sufficient extra thrust to enable this.

The A333 doesn't have the range, but the 332 may just be able to shade it, although it's pretty much at the edge of its capability.

[SNNEI]

I would not be in favour of getting rid of the A321's, unless extra rotations were introduced on certain routes: ORK-LHR, as tom has pointed out, needs all the capacity it can get at present, and EI's slot holding at LHR is tight in any case and may come under more pressure from it's oneworld partners should any of them be needing some slots...

Of course, EI may also intend using it's A330's more on European routes... it does that at present in any case and it may be a solution for ORK-LHR?

However, if dumping the A321 means getting a higher number of A320's as replacment: bring it on! maybe then my beloved ORK-AMS route will go back to 2 a day..

Tom: any news on how Milan, Barcelona and Alicante are doing these days? any numbers for us? Hope it's all going well down there!

[Tom the Tenor]

Using an A330-200 would be a very good solution for this summer's problems ex ORK to LHR. Swissair used to use them from Zurich to LHR. Also good practice for the EI crews in preparation for North Atlantic operations ex Cork in the next year or two. Just say, base an A330-200 at Cork and fly the EI710 rotation to and from LHR and then a possible 1330 departure for New York?

Yes, if the A321s were to go it would come close to demanding a second A320 for Cork basing. This would immediately relieve the second Amsterdam problem which is a very serious situation. Travel agents are at present finding it very difficult to repatriate pax back to ORK. The people in authority at Aer Lingus have made a huge miscalculation here with the diminshing of the AMS & LHR service.

BMI take note re: LHR. EZY or Transavia/Basiq Air take note re: AMS or Rotterdam.

Milan is the least performing of MXP, BCN and ALC. MXP did very well over the Easter holiday but is a little slower now but will pick up again from June when the summer hols kick in? Hope so!

[SNNEI]

Tom,

EI managers should really take a quick look at their own site: There is NO availability From AMS to ORK from May 1st to May 6th. Not one single seat....

As one of their more frequent travellers on ORK-AMS, i'm now forced to write to management... I'll be more than happy to share any reply I get...

[Tom the Tenor]

Getting back to the long haul options - winter operations are a totally different ball game for airlines operating the North Atlantic out of Ireland and even more so out of Shannon so does anyone have any ideas about something like the new Airbus A319LR flying to the likes of Boston or to some newer thinner East Coast routes? The German A319CJ flying on behalf of LH from DUS to EWR and ORD is fascinating as is the new AF A319LRs on long range thin routes to points in Africa and Iran.

Such an operation with an A319LR could create new long range opportunities for EI from places like BFS, SNN, Knock and ORK? Or, equally, out of Dublin to DXB and on to Hong Kong.

Granted, the economies of scale with a smaller aircraft are not so good but Ireland is small country with a small population but with a large number of airports, relatively speaking, of course!

Just some ideas!

[SNNEI]

Tom,

Would be great, but I doubt EI is the one to do it with the emphasis seeming to be lower fares with maximum number of bums on seats



In any case, I think Cork in particular can support a 332 at least to NY, if perhaps the flight continued on to Belfast. It was done on the Shannon-NY service as you will probably re-call.

SNN originating PAX numbers on services to the US are not as bad as some would have you believe. Aerlingus get about 40% of US passengers as SNN originating, so the market is there without question (I would at this juncture like to point out to all that I am 100% against the Shannon stopover!) Thats 400,000 pax per annum approximatly, and of course this does not include CO, DL or US.

Knock in my estimation probably could also support a US service given a few more years of development, with CO probably having what it takes in terms of aircraft (757)and U.S hub.

Aerlingus should also be able to operate to Asia within a short while using the A332 I reckon.

One route I would definitely point out where EI probably would do very well with the kind of operation you are suggesting is Dublin- San Jose california. With the computer industry links between Ireland and Silicon valley, even San Jose airport authority has identified it as a service with potential. In reality it would be the perfect route for say an A319LR. Mostly business Pax.....

[Silver Tongued Cavalier]

emphasis seeming to be lower fares with maximum number of bums on seats

Absolutely!! Expect a reduction in the current size of Premier Class on some of the A330's. EI is going to be a Low Cost Long Haul Airline too!

Aerlingus should also be able to operate to Asia within a short while using the A332 I reckon

Here I tend to be less optimistic. For a number of reasons.

1) Until EI get proper industry standard horizontal crew rest facilities, EI A330's are going nowhere new, not even to San Fran/San Jose. IALPA would never agree to this after being hoodwinked over the startup of the LAX operation which has left a considerably bad aftertaste.

2) The range of the A330-200 with max payload.

When people look up the Airbus range figures on the Airbus website "253 passengers in a three-class cabin layout up to 6,650 nm/12,300km", remember this is the manufacturers PR marketing figures! In reality this is a bit less, just like the car manufacturers and their mpg quotes! Also when people look up those great circle mapper distances, this is the absolute theoretical mathematical minimum! Not reality unfortunately, in Airline Ops, add around 10% to the great circle distance for a realistic route, and another 10% for potential headwinds, especially Westbound to the US. Also as any skipper would like a few tonnes of extra fuel to hold etc etc before thinking about having to divert from his intended destination, the "PR man's maximum range" has come down considerably!!!

Take it from me the classic EI A330-300s can take max payload (full pax, bags, full cargo) to Chicago off Rwy 28, but not further. Great Circle Dist 3192nm, Airbus claim 4500nm.

An A330-200 can take max payload to LAX off Rwy 28 and not much further. Great circle dist 4502nm, Airbus 6650nm. If they want to go further they take off payload and put on fuel. Simple. However has discussed previously this is not the new EI business plan!

Flight International article :

Great Circle Distances!!!!

DUB-DXB 3200nm
DXB-KUL 2997nm
DXB-HKG 3202nm
DXB-BKK 2638nm

All these routes are PERFECT for the A330-300 or 200!!!!

Anyone get what I'm thinking?

DUB-BKK 5323nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.
DUB-HKG 5318nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.
DUB-CPT 5386nm, Too far for A330-200 with full load.

Willie Walsh does not want to go any further than this which is why he has asked for an aircraft with a 6500nm claimed range.

A319LR, Nice idea but doesn't fit in with the new business plan unfortunatly.

Long live the A321's!!!

Regarding Boeing and the 7E7, I think it offers a bit too much range 8300nm to 8500nm, at the expense of airframe weight???

Someone might be able to confirm but I think that the 777-200ER could get it's max take off weight off Rwy 28, around 8000ft needed on a standard day? Some machine, and a serious option for Aer Lingus to the Far East direct.

The proposed and scrapped A330-500 in the Year 2000 would have been perfect for EI. Eight frames shorter than the -200, 222 Pax, and range of 7000nm. Was planned for a third quarter 2003 first flight, and service entry a year later!!

Also perfect would be the A340-200/300. IF ONLY DUB RUNWAY WAS LONG ENOUGH!!

Oh well , there's always an option of a fuel stop in Shannon!!

Goodnight!!

[MarkD]

Not commenting on the 330 replacement beyond unless crew training is provided by Boeing gratis then replacing the existing 330s with B7x7s seems mad. Do newer 330s have higher MTOWs allowing ORD with IFE?

Agree with ORK-LHR - always seems jammed. 321 ex SNN a few months back was full, and that's winter. IMHO all LHR flights should be 321 to get full value for slots.

330 ORK-LHR - seems hard to justify on a reg. basis since EI 330s probably have high rotations as it is with SNN and all.

319LR - AC are using it for South America route proving, that's where they see future shekels. However, that's for long thin routes where existing connections are onerous (i.e. via US) since the slower 319 is outpaced by bigger a/c like 767, 330, 744.

[Tom the Tenor]

Quite a tour de force you have there, you Silver Tongued Cavalier, you!

So, the future might be more A330-200s and some Boeing 777-248ERs?

Yes, the A340-200/300s would be just right for Asia if only the runways were right so it is evident that both Cork and Dublin both now need a little more concrete. About 500 metres for DUB and about 200 metres for Cork would do?

Quite troubled, though, by tonight's RTE News at 9 pm which seemed to imply we are in for another 3 years of the Shannon stopover whenever the new deal is signed on between the EU and the USA. Is the madness set to continue like this?

EI A321s on SNN-LHR and always crammed? Interesting. It is going to be even worse now as FR are down to x 2 to STN ex SNN for the summer!

[Exospheric]

Knock is indeed well placed for a US route, recent developments seem to show that it might not be all that far off.

One has to assume, of course, that the stopover lunacy will cease.

Knock has no problems with concrete, having regularly operated B763 trans-atlantic, and operating B757 (type unconfirmed) to Capetown this year.

[akerosid]

Reading today's IT, it's not quite as bad as it sounds. Yes, there is a reference to a phased withdrawal of the stopover, but there is a clear indication from SB that SNN should not be relying on the stopover. That there was an angry response from the Signal lobby should be reason enough for optimism!

I understand that the current plan is to move from a 1:1 to a 2:1 deal, whereby EI (and other carriers) would only have to provide 1 flight to/from SNN for every two from DUB; this enables EI to double its existing 22 flights a week n/s from Dublin, effectively allowing it to add daily services to three new cities, as it has apparently committed itself to do.

My biggest fear is that Open Skies could turn out_ to be something of a pyrrhic victory - free access, but with all the obstructions, visas, etc. that the Americans are planning to introduce, traffic could decline. One very recent report suggests a drop of around 30% in visitors to the US.

This makes it all the more important that EI diversifies away from its reliance on US flights, adding Asia - as it has planned, but also Canada too.

[SNNEI]

Long haul

Aeroskid,

Amen to that! About time we saw a little diversity in the Aer Lingus network...

and yes, if Signal are pis$ed, that is indeed an encouraging sign!

Just an after-thought: could it not be that EI has excluded the A340 here in the hope that Airbus might make an offer for said aircraft that EI could not refuse? WW is indeed shrewd when it comes to new aircraft deals as we saw from the long drawn out european fleet selection...

[akerosid]

Much as I'd love to see Aer Lingus A340s, the issue of simply one of performance. The A330-200 is, for the moment, the best aircraft. The A340-300/777 might just be too big, whereas the 270 seat capacity of the 332, plus its superb cargo capacity, might be just right. If Airbus can tinker with performance so as to allow a n/s operation of c.6,000nm from Dublin's Runway 10/28, then it will probably get the deal.

On the other hand, the 332 is selling extremely well; does Airbus have the incentive to give EI such a good deal, particularly as it feels it probably has EI in the bag, with the 320 order.

Boeing, on the other hand, has a very good incentive; it knows EI has ambitious plans and it has a new aircraft to sell. The 777 would make a good 333 replacement, but the 777 would not be the best aircraft for new long haul flights.

This is why it would not surprise me if an earlier prediction came true: a combination of 332s and 777s. Part of Boeing's deal could include extra 332s, to carry EI forward until the 7E7-900 comes onstream in c.2009-10. The 777s could replace the 333s in the meantime.

It's still a mountain to climb for Boeing, however and it needs to be aware of the danger of being "Dutch auctioned" against Airbus.