Airlines in South Africa
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Airlines in South Africa
Hello everyone, I just wanted to ask whats going on with the airlines in South Africa and why is it that most of them aren't doing well? So far we've seen both Velvet and 1time go under and I always hear of SAA receiving negative profits and needing a bailout from the SA government. Are private airlines not able to compete with SAA because they are funded by the government? Or is it that the demand for air travel in South Africa just doesn't require more then a few airlines and so certain airlines will be pushed out of the market? I am just curious to get different opinions on the situation. Thank you for your time and information. It's greatly appreciated.
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Navyjet,
Herewith my opinion with regard to the airline industry in SA:
SAA's continual 'recapitalisation' or bailout by its owner (the SA government) has more to do with SAA's inefficiencies and high costs than its ability to generate revenue.
As a government entity, SAA has an overweight management structure, bloated administrative staff and inefficient labour practises thanks to the demands of the respective unions. Couple these with the fact that while revenue is generated primarily in (a depreciating) ZAR, fuel and leasing costs are paid in USD.
SAA's ability to generate revenue is not in question - consider that the JHB/CPT route is one of the most profitable and popular commercial routes in the world.
As far as the private airlines are concerned, those which have failed have done so for a number of reasons. The first is their inability to compete with a state-owned airline which receives unlimited assistance from the government. The second is that operating cheaply acquired, old generation airliners in today's industry is not sustainable as 1Time and Nationwide discovered.
Third, in the case of 1Time, the principles of BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) saw to it that executives who had little knowledge of the industry were brought in to steer the airline with disastrous results.
Fourth, the industry is all about capacity and an airline cannot survive with one or two aircraft flying just a few times between city pairs as was the case with Velvet Sky.
The success story in SA of course has been Comair - operating as a British Airways franchise and as the low cost kulula brands. Conservative management, investment in new equipment and frequency has been a sustainable business model.
One could write a thesis on the airline industry in South Africa but I hope this has helped in scratching the surface of a complex and interesting industry.
Herewith my opinion with regard to the airline industry in SA:
SAA's continual 'recapitalisation' or bailout by its owner (the SA government) has more to do with SAA's inefficiencies and high costs than its ability to generate revenue.
As a government entity, SAA has an overweight management structure, bloated administrative staff and inefficient labour practises thanks to the demands of the respective unions. Couple these with the fact that while revenue is generated primarily in (a depreciating) ZAR, fuel and leasing costs are paid in USD.
SAA's ability to generate revenue is not in question - consider that the JHB/CPT route is one of the most profitable and popular commercial routes in the world.
As far as the private airlines are concerned, those which have failed have done so for a number of reasons. The first is their inability to compete with a state-owned airline which receives unlimited assistance from the government. The second is that operating cheaply acquired, old generation airliners in today's industry is not sustainable as 1Time and Nationwide discovered.
Third, in the case of 1Time, the principles of BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) saw to it that executives who had little knowledge of the industry were brought in to steer the airline with disastrous results.
Fourth, the industry is all about capacity and an airline cannot survive with one or two aircraft flying just a few times between city pairs as was the case with Velvet Sky.
The success story in SA of course has been Comair - operating as a British Airways franchise and as the low cost kulula brands. Conservative management, investment in new equipment and frequency has been a sustainable business model.
One could write a thesis on the airline industry in South Africa but I hope this has helped in scratching the surface of a complex and interesting industry.
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That sums it up very neatly.
The state/ANC (i.e taxpayer) sponsored national carrier will do its utmost, in the future as it has in the past, to eliminate competition which does not benefit them or their aims. You have to remember who the tax base is, and who the principal beneficiaries are.
The state/ANC (i.e taxpayer) sponsored national carrier will do its utmost, in the future as it has in the past, to eliminate competition which does not benefit them or their aims. You have to remember who the tax base is, and who the principal beneficiaries are.
CH3CH2OH
Big thumbs up for Comair, used them on 3 sectors and both classes on our current trip, comfort (leg room) and on board service put European carriers to shame! Flown on both a shiny 738 and what seems to be the more common 734.
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First time I flew Comair it was my only ever DC3, from Johannesburg to Welkom. 1982 and a lifetime ago.
Kulula's horribly cramped - worse than Ryanair. But it does fly Cape Town to Lanseria which can be very convenient.
Kulula's horribly cramped - worse than Ryanair. But it does fly Cape Town to Lanseria which can be very convenient.
Last edited by caiman27; 24th Sep 2013 at 18:21.
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I would have to agree that the gross mismanagement of SAA has a lot to do with how our pride and joy performs. When I was a kiddo SAA had a proud and storied tradition. As far as I can tell the only large disaster involving a SAA flight was SAA295 or better known as the Helderberg disaster. We used to have not some of the best but THE best pilots in the world.
Now we have an airline............
Now we have an airline............
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And SA406, 13th March 1967, Viscount 'Rietbok'.
And SA228, 20th April 1968, B707 'Pretoria'.
That's quite a wild statement?! There's a lot of top-rate competition out there for that elevated position. (Or was that just 'the world south of the Limpopo'?)
Back to the topic, there just aren't the number of customers who can afford air travel in SA to make any more than the present two-horse-race viable. And what a tilted race, with one being inefficient and propped up by the taxpayer while the other is more efficient and businesslike. Do the colours that they fly under say anything?
And SA228, 20th April 1968, B707 'Pretoria'.
We used to have not some of the best but THE best pilots in the world.
Back to the topic, there just aren't the number of customers who can afford air travel in SA to make any more than the present two-horse-race viable. And what a tilted race, with one being inefficient and propped up by the taxpayer while the other is more efficient and businesslike. Do the colours that they fly under say anything?
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SA295 has been shrouded in mystery but many think the cause was combustion of munitions being transported back to SA from Taiwan, at the time one of SA's only three or so 'friends' in the world. I lost a number of travel industry colleagues on that flight as a group of travel agents on a fam trip were on board.
SA406 was rumoured as sabotage, as someone high profile was on board, off the top of my head I seem to recall it was someone high up in the military.
SA228 was probably primarily caused by a slat retraction error but as always a combination of circumstances. The aircraft was only a few weeks old.
I can't say SAA's pilots were the best in the world as I don't have the experience to validate that statement, but they were bloody good compared to many other airlines I flew on. We were proud of our 'Lugdiens' even if they were a pain in the backside.
SA406 was rumoured as sabotage, as someone high profile was on board, off the top of my head I seem to recall it was someone high up in the military.
SA228 was probably primarily caused by a slat retraction error but as always a combination of circumstances. The aircraft was only a few weeks old.
I can't say SAA's pilots were the best in the world as I don't have the experience to validate that statement, but they were bloody good compared to many other airlines I flew on. We were proud of our 'Lugdiens' even if they were a pain in the backside.
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Who is the best
I guess my embelishment was purely that of an egotistical patriot 
The only real way I could justify that comment and even then it would be quite supervicial is SAA's safety record is not the worst in the world and perhaps only one of the above mentioned disasters can be attributed to pilot error, or possible pilot error.
Forgive me my patriotic outburst.
The only real way I could justify that comment and even then it would be quite supervicial is SAA's safety record is not the worst in the world and perhaps only one of the above mentioned disasters can be attributed to pilot error, or possible pilot error.
Forgive me my patriotic outburst.
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Tomspur,
Forgiven!! (It was entertaining though!) I also liked the last sentence in you original post.
Capetonian,
Oh dear, the conspiracy theories!
http://www.caa.co.za/resource%20cent...t%20ZS-CVA.pdf (I like that novel verb "negatived"!!)
I think that a modern enquiry would put a bit more weight on disorientation: at night, over the sea, coastline in sight (which could very easily create a false sense of 'horizon') and "The cloud base and visibility at East London Airport itself, as estimated by the Tower Controller, were below company limits for night approaches, but it is well known that the weather at East London "comes and goes"" and the possibility of fatigue on their 5th sector after all that already happened during that Flight Duty Period (a bit topical right now!); all of those added together are a recipe for CFIT off an NDB approach, which in today's investigations would probably be looked at a lot more seriously than then. The heart attack proposition seems to have been very much a case of "well, we can't think of anything else...".
So it is very likely that 2 out of the 3 were 'pilot error' (for whatever that term is worth) and the other was definitely 'procedures error' and is still frequently listed on Dangerous Goods courses. (Then, aside form those catastrophes, one could add the 'littler' incidents like putting a nosewheel into the sand next to the runway in Cape Town, or ramming a catering truck in Lusaka...)
Back to Navyjet707's question: Simply not enough people with enough money. Your question:
is what it all revolves around.
Forgiven!! (It was entertaining though!) I also liked the last sentence in you original post.
Capetonian,
SA406 was rumoured as sabotage, as someone high profile was on board, off the top of my head I seem to recall it was someone high up in the military.
Colonel Matheson, of the South African Railways Police, testified on investigations into the background of every passenger, crew member, and other person associated with the aircraft. Colonel Matheson negatived sabotage as a possible cause.
I think that a modern enquiry would put a bit more weight on disorientation: at night, over the sea, coastline in sight (which could very easily create a false sense of 'horizon') and "The cloud base and visibility at East London Airport itself, as estimated by the Tower Controller, were below company limits for night approaches, but it is well known that the weather at East London "comes and goes"" and the possibility of fatigue on their 5th sector after all that already happened during that Flight Duty Period (a bit topical right now!); all of those added together are a recipe for CFIT off an NDB approach, which in today's investigations would probably be looked at a lot more seriously than then. The heart attack proposition seems to have been very much a case of "well, we can't think of anything else...".
So it is very likely that 2 out of the 3 were 'pilot error' (for whatever that term is worth) and the other was definitely 'procedures error' and is still frequently listed on Dangerous Goods courses. (Then, aside form those catastrophes, one could add the 'littler' incidents like putting a nosewheel into the sand next to the runway in Cape Town, or ramming a catering truck in Lusaka...)
Back to Navyjet707's question: Simply not enough people with enough money. Your question:
Or is it that the demand for air travel in South Africa just doesn't require more then a few airlines and so certain airlines will be pushed out of the market?
Last edited by Trossie; 26th Sep 2013 at 18:25.
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Colonel Matheson, of the South African Railways Police, testified on investigations into the background of every passenger, crew member, and other person associated with the aircraft. Colonel Matheson negatived sabotage as a possible cause.
Anyway, not my conspiracy theory at all, it was what went round in those days.
The mystery of the Rietbok (Non Fiction)
The Rietbok crash, however, had some sinister connotations which to this day are still unsolved, also there are hints and allegations of government conspiracies and cover ups with new evidence coming to the fore every now and then.
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Just made a booking on SAFAIR.
https://www.flysafair.co.za
Let's hope they can keep it going.
Outbound
Cape Town international
OR Tambo Int. Johannesburg
Thursday 24 October 2013
Flight 108
Departing 12:20
Arrival 14:30
Fare Type Low Fare
Return
OR Tambo Int. Johannesburg
Cape Town international
Tuesday 05 November 2013
Flight 105
Departing 16:50
Arrival 19:00
Fare Type Low Fare
Passengers
Adult 1
Flight Price R 1,126.32
Taxes
R 469.68
Total Price R 1,596.00
Adults and children are allowed to check in one free bag not weighing more than 20kg.
https://www.flysafair.co.za
Let's hope they can keep it going.
Outbound
Cape Town international
OR Tambo Int. Johannesburg
Thursday 24 October 2013
Flight 108
Departing 12:20
Arrival 14:30
Fare Type Low Fare
Return
OR Tambo Int. Johannesburg
Cape Town international
Tuesday 05 November 2013
Flight 105
Departing 16:50
Arrival 19:00
Fare Type Low Fare
Passengers
Adult 1
Flight Price R 1,126.32
Taxes
R 469.68
Total Price R 1,596.00
Adults and children are allowed to check in one free bag not weighing more than 20kg.
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Patriotism and pilot performance
Once on a BA flight from SA to LHR I saw in flight a South African passenger point out of a window and draw the attention of his companion to a vibrating wing of the plane, with the words, "see that shake... on my last flight, SAA, the South African pilot, boy, he kept that wing "doodstil".
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Thanks everyone for the replies, its much appreciated. I guess I just don't see the logic in the government supporting an airline that is reporting negative profits. If the market were a little less regulated and competition were able to stand a chance, air travel could potentially be cheaper for travelers and more airlines would create more jobs and opportunity for South Africa as a whole.
Does anyone know if SA express and AirLink receive government funding as well?
Does anyone know if SA express and AirLink receive government funding as well?
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express i think yes they do receive funding as they fall under transnet
Airlink definitely not and is a gold mine but as they are not listed no one is allowed to see how much money they actually make - so they kinda are just kept in a corner and charge ludicrous prices on "thinner" routes as no one competes with them
Airlink definitely not and is a gold mine but as they are not listed no one is allowed to see how much money they actually make - so they kinda are just kept in a corner and charge ludicrous prices on "thinner" routes as no one competes with them
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I guess I just don't see the logic in the government supporting an airline that is reporting negative profits.
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Capetonian,
About your comment on the 'Rietbok' crash:
I think that is would be the ultimate of conspiracy theories to assume that the Nats had managed to arrange such perfect weather conditions for a CFIT (disorientation) incident to coincide at such very short notice with 'sabotage'!
I think that there probably was a cover-up, but not at all in the way that the conspiracy theorists try to claim: Cecil Margo (the chairman of the enquiry) was trying to cover up the fact that one of his pilot fraternity (he was an experienced multi-engined pilot himself) could have made what in those days was referred to as 'pilot error'. There is an assumption in that enquiry that things went wrong from 2,000ft. Well the company minimums were 500ft (935ft AMSL) so it is far more likely that things went wrong from there, and on a dark and dirty night at 950ft, over the sea, with the coast in sight (which could give very misleading visual cues), off an NDB approach (which is notorious for coastal errors and errors just after sunset) and the 'heads down' distraction of possibly trying to use the radar to locate the airport (the Buffalo River mouth shows very nicely on a weather radar, especially those older ones) with weather that 'comes and goes' and if they were attempting an approach on Runway 10 but were over the sea it would have been a 'circling approach' which would have meant a considerable amount of visual flying needed in those conditions. The opportunities for disorientation there are very, very significant. I think that the 'heart attack' assumption was a cover-up to hide the very strong possibility of 'pilot error' disorientation. And as an ex-pilot himself, Margo would have favoured that. If there was any Nat involvement at all, it would have been to back up Margo's views to avoid the stain of 'pilot error' on their state owned airline. A last comment on that one: I don't think that you would find any modern 'first-world' airline conducting an approach like that with those minimums.
Now, back to Margo and Navyjet707's original question:
Cecil Margo led a government sponsored commission of enquiry into civil aviation in South Africa in the '70s/'80s. His findings were that South Africa was woefully behind the other countries that he compared with that would have similar civil aviation needs to SA due to geography, etc. (He compared SA with Australia, Canada and the USA.) SA was way behind all of them in 'aviation mindedness'. Not a lot has changed on that front. South Africans are just not used to air travel and an extremely low percentage of South Africans have ever travelled by air, even among the 'developed population' that percentage is low. For most South Africans the concept of air travel for leisure is more a once-in-a-lifetime event rather than the at-least-once-a-year event that it is to Europeans or North Americans. Most South Africans that I have spoken to are rather nonplussed at the concept of 'leisure airlines'. Prices there are not very far off what they are in Europe, which will be more out of the reach of the average population than it is in Europe.
There just isn't the market in South Africa for much of an airline industry and the market being skewed by a taxpayer-propped-up and massively lost-making state airline does it no favours.
(Capetownian, I love that term of yours: " kleptocracy"!!)
About your comment on the 'Rietbok' crash:
There were many cover-ups in those days, as there are now, just that the Nats were better at it.
I think that there probably was a cover-up, but not at all in the way that the conspiracy theorists try to claim: Cecil Margo (the chairman of the enquiry) was trying to cover up the fact that one of his pilot fraternity (he was an experienced multi-engined pilot himself) could have made what in those days was referred to as 'pilot error'. There is an assumption in that enquiry that things went wrong from 2,000ft. Well the company minimums were 500ft (935ft AMSL) so it is far more likely that things went wrong from there, and on a dark and dirty night at 950ft, over the sea, with the coast in sight (which could give very misleading visual cues), off an NDB approach (which is notorious for coastal errors and errors just after sunset) and the 'heads down' distraction of possibly trying to use the radar to locate the airport (the Buffalo River mouth shows very nicely on a weather radar, especially those older ones) with weather that 'comes and goes' and if they were attempting an approach on Runway 10 but were over the sea it would have been a 'circling approach' which would have meant a considerable amount of visual flying needed in those conditions. The opportunities for disorientation there are very, very significant. I think that the 'heart attack' assumption was a cover-up to hide the very strong possibility of 'pilot error' disorientation. And as an ex-pilot himself, Margo would have favoured that. If there was any Nat involvement at all, it would have been to back up Margo's views to avoid the stain of 'pilot error' on their state owned airline. A last comment on that one: I don't think that you would find any modern 'first-world' airline conducting an approach like that with those minimums.
Now, back to Margo and Navyjet707's original question:
Cecil Margo led a government sponsored commission of enquiry into civil aviation in South Africa in the '70s/'80s. His findings were that South Africa was woefully behind the other countries that he compared with that would have similar civil aviation needs to SA due to geography, etc. (He compared SA with Australia, Canada and the USA.) SA was way behind all of them in 'aviation mindedness'. Not a lot has changed on that front. South Africans are just not used to air travel and an extremely low percentage of South Africans have ever travelled by air, even among the 'developed population' that percentage is low. For most South Africans the concept of air travel for leisure is more a once-in-a-lifetime event rather than the at-least-once-a-year event that it is to Europeans or North Americans. Most South Africans that I have spoken to are rather nonplussed at the concept of 'leisure airlines'. Prices there are not very far off what they are in Europe, which will be more out of the reach of the average population than it is in Europe.
There just isn't the market in South Africa for much of an airline industry and the market being skewed by a taxpayer-propped-up and massively lost-making state airline does it no favours.
(Capetownian, I love that term of yours: " kleptocracy"!!)
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Trossie
I have just quickly scanned the world's busiest domestic airline routes and 2 South African routes are constantly in the top 10, being JNB to CTN and JNB to DBN.
Perhaps those numbers are a little ascewed as it includes a lot of foreign travel but the simple fact remains that there is still a high number of flights taking off and landing between those airports? This is not just amount of flights but also number of seats sold.
South Africa if I remember correctly somwhere in my fanatical search a few years back may even have had the busiest domestic airline travels in the world? I speak under correction as I can't find the figures to back up this claim.
If you consider that South Africa is very much an emerging nation as far as travel is concerned, surely there must be some room to grow for a competitive, well run and efficient low budget airline? (Preferably one not run by the current corrupt government
)
Perhaps those numbers are a little ascewed as it includes a lot of foreign travel but the simple fact remains that there is still a high number of flights taking off and landing between those airports? This is not just amount of flights but also number of seats sold.
South Africa if I remember correctly somwhere in my fanatical search a few years back may even have had the busiest domestic airline travels in the world? I speak under correction as I can't find the figures to back up this claim.
If you consider that South Africa is very much an emerging nation as far as travel is concerned, surely there must be some room to grow for a competitive, well run and efficient low budget airline? (Preferably one not run by the current corrupt government
)
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Trossie : My comments about the 'conspiracy' were based on the initial conclusion that the aircraft was brought down by a fire. The cause of the fire remains unknown, but the conspiracy theories were based on the probability of the aircraft carrying sanctions breaking munitions from Taiwan.
Somewhere I have a full printout of the results of the commission of enquiry.
Tomspur
Yes, but it's not going to happen.
Somewhere I have a full printout of the results of the commission of enquiry.
Tomspur
surely there must be some room to grow for a competitive, well run and efficient low budget airline?
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Tomspur,
If you are using those much quoted Amadeus figures, they strangely ignore five US routes that have figures that would easily make their way into that 'top ten' (although Las Vegas features a little further down the list!), so I would question their validity. And you are correct that JNB - CPT does include a lot of international travellers as I know people who have travelled LHR - CPT in the last few days but had to connect via JNB, therefore adding to those figures. But even if there are two routes that do quite well, can you base your business model for an airline on only really two routes that have massive 'competition' from a tax-payer funded lost-making airline?
Capetonian (apologies for my previous incorrect spelling!),
'Col Matheson', as quoted above was referring to the 'Rietbok' incident (and you had previously referred to a 'conspiracy theory' about that crash). There is not much doubt that there was a cover-up of some sort about the dangerous goods loaded on the 'Helderberg', be they munitions or fireworks it was dangerous goods that were not properly loaded/carried that caused the fire. As I have mentioned, it is frequently quoted in airline 'Dangerous Goods' courses.
SA should have a well developed aviation industry, but doesn't and won't while the 'kleptocracy' continues.
If you are using those much quoted Amadeus figures, they strangely ignore five US routes that have figures that would easily make their way into that 'top ten' (although Las Vegas features a little further down the list!), so I would question their validity. And you are correct that JNB - CPT does include a lot of international travellers as I know people who have travelled LHR - CPT in the last few days but had to connect via JNB, therefore adding to those figures. But even if there are two routes that do quite well, can you base your business model for an airline on only really two routes that have massive 'competition' from a tax-payer funded lost-making airline?
Capetonian (apologies for my previous incorrect spelling!),
'Col Matheson', as quoted above was referring to the 'Rietbok' incident (and you had previously referred to a 'conspiracy theory' about that crash). There is not much doubt that there was a cover-up of some sort about the dangerous goods loaded on the 'Helderberg', be they munitions or fireworks it was dangerous goods that were not properly loaded/carried that caused the fire. As I have mentioned, it is frequently quoted in airline 'Dangerous Goods' courses.
SA should have a well developed aviation industry, but doesn't and won't while the 'kleptocracy' continues.