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Severe turbulence LHR-SIN. One dead.

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Severe turbulence LHR-SIN. One dead.

Old 21st May 2024, 11:30
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Originally Posted by Bob_Harris_721
Are these increasingly dangerous incidents the new norm with global warming?
Let us not keep blaming everything on global warming. The incident seems to have happened afternoon local time over the Bay of Bengal, where there are, as ever there at this time of year, substantial storms currently in progress. Accounts of old day flying in the ITCZ, right back to the 1930s flying boats, describe incidents of substantial turbulence there almost as standard.
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Old 21st May 2024, 11:43
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
I try to hold things as long as absolutely possible, but more than once on Korean particularly I have finally made my way aft, only to hear the "Return to seats" and seeing cabin staff motioning me back to my seat ASAP. I'm bursting! Aaaarrrggghhh..................
I always think it's sensible to 'go' when it's convenient rather than leaving it till absolutely necessary. Other people in your row getting up to use the facilities is an ideal opportunity I find.
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Old 21st May 2024, 11:49
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I’m not so sure this was just CAT or turbulence alone,.that may be how it started.

it is from a media report..
After 11 hours of flying time from take-off in London, the aircraft sharply dropped from an altitude of around 11,300 metres to 9,500 metres within just five minutes as it finished crossing the Andaman Sea and neared Thailand, FlightRadar 24 data showed.

Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student on board the flight, told Reuters the aircraft started "tilting up and there was shaking".

"So I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop," he said.
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Old 21st May 2024, 11:55
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles
I’m not so sure this was just CAT….that may be how it started.

it is from a media report..
After 11 hours of flying time from take-off in London, the aircraft sharply dropped from an altitude of around 11,300 metres to 9,500 metres within just five minutes as it finished crossing the Andaman Sea and neared Thailand, FlightRadar 24 data showed.

Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student on board the flight, told Reuters the aircraft started "tilting up and there was shaking".

"So I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop," he said.
Losing 6000ft in 3 minutes isn't a fall, its a 2000fpm descent. Entirely plausible for a quick change in altitude ahead of an unplanned diversion
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Old 21st May 2024, 11:58
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Originally Posted by Bob_Harris_721
Many times over the years I have wondered what aviation would look like if clear air turbulence was frequently unsurvivable. It seems an extraordinary coincidence that the worst CAT normally encountered lies within human tolerance.

Had CAT been worse than that historically, would aviation have ever developed? Are these increasingly dangerous incidents the new norm with global warming? Could aviation become so dangerous as to become unviable?

Greta might be rubbing her hands with glee. Not at the fatalities and injuries, obviously, but at the prospect of an aviation industry where people are too frightened to fly.

Of course, this incident might simply have been caused by pilots inadvertently flying into a detectable CB. Let's wait and see.
I think there's been far more fatalities through poor maintenance, design errors, pilot error and so on
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Old 21st May 2024, 11:58
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Originally Posted by shinz0
I must admit this was one of my first thoughts when my wife read it out from an online news feed. Afaik, severe weather in the ICZ is normally associated with the Monsoon season which according to the Nat Geo website is from April to September so I guess that could be so.
The ITCZ is all year around. It just moves north or south depending on time of year.
This time of year it drifts further north.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:03
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Aside from the toilet visit considerations, try keeping an excitable/agitated infant in their seat for long durations...
They just don't seem that receptive to 'It's for your safety' arguments, surprisingly
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:06
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Originally Posted by mikegss
I've heard people on flights saying to their neighbours "he's probably forgotten to turn the sign off".
Something that could easily be countered with some more communication from the cockpit
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:10
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One of the generally fairly unreliable independent radio reports I heard just a few minutes ago said the aircraft "plunged" 6,000 feet in three minutes which doesn't seem that much of a "plunge". Then they also said that ambulances met the aircraft on "the runway" so possibly just the sort of rubbish you hear when aviation incidents are being (mis)reported.

Perhaps they have their units confused and it was 6,000m in three minutes, or 6,000ft in three seconds.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:12
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles
I’m not so sure this was just CAT or turbulence alone,.that may be how it started.

it is from a media report..
After 11 hours of flying time from take-off in London, the aircraft sharply dropped from an altitude of around 11,300 metres to 9,500 metres within just five minutes as it finished crossing the Andaman Sea and neared Thailand, FlightRadar 24 data showed.
well ...just 5 minutes ....
-5400 feet in 5 minutes makes ~ -1000 fpm , doesnt make a ATC happy, but otherwise nothing out of SOP regime?

(just criticising the writing style of media report on that specific detail)

Last edited by 51bravo; 21st May 2024 at 12:23.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:18
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Originally Posted by 51bravo
well ...just 5 minutes ....
-5400 feet in 5 minutes makes ~ -1000 fpm , doesnt make a ATC happy, but otherwise nothing out of SOP regime?
This was probably after the fact. If you look at their flightpath in FR24, there are some altitude fluctuations at around 7.50UTC when the flight is at FL370 and still flying towards Singapore, just over Myanmar when they are about to go over the bay of Bengal. Flight is stable at 37000, then there is one datapoint at 37275, a few datapoints later they are at 36975. 10 minutes later, the flight changes it's heading towards Bangkok and descends to FL310 (which is the reported 6k feet "drop" which doesn't seem any more than a regular descent, after they decided to divert to BKK. After a couple of minutes at FL310, they continue their descent on approach into BKK. Squawk is changed to 7700 halfway into their descent.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:24
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https://avherald.com/h?article=518e5d47&opt=0

You can clearly see who were not wearing their seatbelts by the holes in the ceiling (and the blood on the head)...

Last edited by procede; 21st May 2024 at 12:35.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:28
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Originally Posted by Bob_Harris_721
Many times over the years I have wondered what aviation would look like if clear air turbulence was frequently unsurvivable. It seems an extraordinary coincidence that the worst CAT normally encountered lies within human tolerance.

Had CAT been worse than that historically, would aviation have ever developed? Are these increasingly dangerous incidents the new norm with global warming? Could aviation become so dangerous as to become unviable?

Greta might be rubbing her hands with glee. Not at the fatalities and injuries, obviously, but at the prospect of an aviation industry where people are too frightened to fly.

Of course, this incident might simply have been caused by pilots inadvertently flying into a detectable CB. Let's wait and see.
I would guess that 98% of turbulence related injuries are tied to thunderstorms not CAT.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:30
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I flew on an SQ B737 between Aus and SIN once. Daylight flight and gin clear. Then there was a bit of a ripple and “ding”: on came the signs. And stayed on. Forty five minutes later they were still on. And smooth as. Well, all except for my bladder, that is. The cabin crew, of course, were still moving up and down the aisle (not doing hot drinks, of course). I caught the eye of one and gestured at the signs. She asked: “Do you need the bathroom?”, to which I nodded. She continued up to the front galley and a moment later: “ding”. Signs went off.

I unstrapped and headed forward to the galley and the bathroom. And there in the galley was the Skipper, having a cuppa with one of the stewardesses…..
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:30
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Originally Posted by 51bravo
well ...just 5 minutes ....
-5400 feet in 5 minutes makes ~ -1000 fpm , doesnt make a ATC happy, but otherwise nothing out of SOP regime?

(just criticising the writing style of media report on that specific detail)
At the risk of stating the obvious, it's instantaneous vertical acceleration (over just a few seconds) rather than sustained descent rate that will determine the forces passengers are subjected to.

You're not going to get any meaningful information on that from the flight tracker logs.

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Old 21st May 2024, 12:33
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Originally Posted by ozbiggles
I’m not so sure this was just CAT or turbulence alone,.that may be how it started.

it is from a media report..
After 11 hours of flying time from take-off in London, the aircraft sharply dropped from an altitude of around 11,300 metres to 9,500 metres within just five minutes as it finished crossing the Andaman Sea and neared Thailand, FlightRadar 24 data showed.

Dzafran Azmir, a 28-year-old student on board the flight, told Reuters the aircraft started "tilting up and there was shaking".

"So I started bracing for what was happening, and very suddenly there was a very dramatic drop," he said.
I noted this account on sky news and thought it sounded very much like stall training in a Cessna 152. Is there more to the story? Or just an unreliable witness.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:35
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The weather this afternoon in the Andaman Sea region has been very heavy but visible storms. Unlikely this was clear air turbulence.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:39
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Originally Posted by procede
https://avherald.com/h?article=518e5d47&opt=0

You can clearly see who were not wearing their seatbelts by the holes in the sealing (and the blood on the head)...
No, you can't. A person sitting securely fastened could have been hit by flying debris, or another passenger, or simply hitting the seatback in front. It's just as possible that one of the pilots could have been injured going to the toilet before TOD. (If it really was CAT, the flight crew would not have been prepared.). Are the seatbelt prosetrylizers suggesting the pilots should hold it in too?
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:39
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
At the risk of stating the obvious, it's instantaneous vertical acceleration (over just a few seconds) rather than sustained descent rate that will determine the forces passengers are subjected to.
Also it often involves a pitching moment (due to C_m_alpha), so the acceleration in the back will be much larger than in the front.
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Old 21st May 2024, 12:46
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Originally Posted by AirScotia
No, you can't. A person sitting securely fastened could have been hit by flying debris, or another passenger, or simply hitting the seatback in front. It's just as possible that one of the pilots could have been injured going to the toilet before TOD. (If it really was CAT, the flight crew would not have been prepared.). Are the seatbelt prosetrylizers suggesting the pilots should hold it in too?
Maybe not with 100% certainty, but is is very likely. Falling luggage and people are not very likely to cause lacerations. Broken plastic panels and metal fixtures are. Also, people going to the bathroom would have hit the ceiling in the aisle, not above their seat, unless it happened right when they had just unbuckled.

Also my theory is that standing in the aisle, you are are much better able to brace yourself than sitting in a seat as you can grab on the the baggage rail. Also you will not be able to gain as much speed before you hit the ceiling.
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