Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island

[ChickenHouse]

Originally Posted by hegemon88

If you look up N921GG, another PA46, it is still showing a piston Lyco TIO-540-AE2A, whereas I know for a fact that it had undergone a JetProp conversion to a turboprop. It is now powered by a Pratt & Whitney PT6A, FAA doesn't seem to update the engine information.

After reading conflicting information in press reports ("Piper Malibu" with a "single turbine engine") I have checked on the JetProp webpage listing all past JetProp conversions and haven't found the accident aircraft registration there. Having said that, a few conversions on their list have the aircraft identification redacted. Having said that in turn, had it been converted to a turboprop, we would have probably seen by now a photo showing the accident aircraft with a changed look. On conversion the engine cowling length increases dramatically, to accommodate for the turbine PT6A engine length.

From all we know and all pictures on the net, some are quite recent, there appears to be no turbine conversion for the aircraft in question.
Doing a conversion and not following the obligation to update the registry is rather a bad indication for the shop putting a PT6 in a PA46 ...
Btw, the increase in cowling length is more due to weight & balance as the turbine is much lighter than the reciprocating engine.

[hegemon88]

Originally Posted by ChickenHouse

From all we know and all pictures on the net, some are quite recent, there appears to be no turbine conversion for the aircraft in question.

Fair enough, that's what I thought.

Originally Posted by ChickenHouse

Doing a conversion and not following the obligation to update the registry is rather a bad indication for the shop putting a PT6 in a PA46 ...

Not my aircraft - it was just to illustrate the engine conversion might have been carried out without the FAA database showing it.

Originally Posted by ChickenHouse

Btw, the increase in cowling length is more due to weight & balance as the turbine is much lighter than the reciprocating engine.

OK, I thought it was a combination of reasons - length and W&B; I do remember the conversion "creates" an additional cargo compartment behind the engine to increase the engine's arm in the W&B situation.

[Clare Prop]

Originally Posted by BigFrank

¿ Which "police" ?

Welsh?
French?
Channel Islands; which one(s) ?
Monaqesque?


Second thoughts:

US?
Which state?

Guernsey. They used to fly a "Donkey" copper to Alderney for a couple of hours once a week IIRC

[suninmyeyes]

I agree that Icarrus's post at #248 is one of the best summaries. My thoughts are that it is unlikely to be engine failure as there was no distress call. It would seem most likely to be a loss of control for one of the following reasons:

1) Ice contamination on control surfaces.
2) Ice affecting pitot static system resulting in inaccurate airspeed and altitude indications, essential in IMC and could lead to disorientation.
3) A loss of primary AI gyro, vacuum pump failure etc could result in immediate upset.
4) Pilot incapacitation. The passenger would not have a hope.

The Malibu is quite a hot ship. I have no doubt reliance would have been put on the autopilot for night IMC flying. The first three possibilities above could all result in the autopilot either disconnecting or deviating from its intended path. This would need prompt manual intervention with instrument rating skills to avoid rapid loss of control. The JFK junior PA-32 accident at Martha's Vineyard is a good example of disorientation and loss of control. I doubt we will ever know the real cause of this tragic accident as the plane will probably never be found.

[Toerag]

If they had to ditch they were stuffed.
Weather was solid force 6 from the SW at the Channel Light Vessel at the time, varying between 23&30knots if I remember correctly. Dull and overcast/cloudy in Guernsey during the afternoon. Later in the evening (10pm?) I noticed the weather deteriorate as a front came through (gusty, sleet/hail/rain). Sea state at the CLV was 2m waves every 6-7 seconds - a very heavy 'chop' as opposed to a swell. Would have been classed as 'rather rough or rough' I suspect. It's 'spring tides' with a decent run of current in the area.
When CIAS first started searching at 9pm they had over 10 miles visibility, although I don't know what the cloud base was. It got worse and they had to give up as the cloudbase dropped too low. This is from pilots who regularly fly below clifftop height (100mASL).
Even if they managed to 'land' nicely on the water they'd have been swamped within a minute and almost certainly sunk. Alderney Lifeboat have some footage from yesterday's search on their facebook page when the weather was nicer than disappearance night. Proper horrible. I've fished up round that way a fair bit in nice weather, on that night it would have been apocalyptic to be bobbing around in the sea. If by some freak of luck they managed to get out alive and get to the Casquets or other reefs off Alderney they'd have been smashed up in the breakers trying to get out the water. I'm amazed at the amount of effort put into the search, had it been a fishing boat with two crew that disappeared they'd have given up by lunchtime the day after.

[PDR1]

Originally Posted by Romaro

On the possibility that the aircraft was heavy with a reasonable amount of luggage, presumably the handlers in charge that evening at Aviapartner Executive (assuming that's the agent/handler/FBO used) will recall how much stuff they carried over to the aircraft. Likewise they might enlighten the AAIB on other pertinant facts - the rumoured attempt to start-up several times etc.

It's a 6-seat aeroplane - how much luggage makes a 6-seat aeroplane overweight when only carrying two people?

​​​​​​​PDR

[Auxtank]

I see from the 2015 BBC Ferry Pilot video that features the accident aircraft N264DB, was fitted with what looks like an Artex ELT.

SARs have not indicated whether this was activated/ detected during the initial search.

[bakerpictures]

Originally Posted by PDR1

It's a 6-seat aeroplane - how much luggage makes a 6-seat aeroplane overweight when only carrying two people?

​​​​​​​PDR

He was en-route to a new home so may have feasibly been carrying quite an amount of possessions/weight - so also interested in the payload of that variant.

[Super VC-10]

Originally Posted by Strumble Head

Am I alone in finding that details such as 'N'-registered aircraft being operated in UK and Europe with unsuspecting passengers on a PPL are bringing back unhappy memories of Graham Hill and his last flight?
AAIB Report on accident to Piper PA-23 N6645Y

Whilst the aircraft involved was displaying N6645Y, at the time of the accident it was being flown unregistered and stateless.

[Wedge]

Very sad story and once you cut through the inaccuracies it looks as though there is going to be some serious fall-out from this (presumed) accident on various fronts.

“you don’t understand you don’t have time to worry about facts we just have to write a story”.

Yes, of course you're right in everything you say Icaruss at #278 The media have always been very unpopular on this website. But those hacks are actually right in what they say. Journalists aren't interested in facts, they're interested in stories. They're under heavy pressure to get stories from their editor; and file them to very tight deadlines. Why? Because we, the people, are interested in reading them. That is their job. The Daily Star has some nonsense about a throwaway comment Sala's ex-girlfriend made about this being a 'mafia hit'. A lot of rubbish and it's a nice story for that small constituency of people who read the Daily Star over their greasy spoon breakfast. Journalists aren't pilots and they don't have that expert knowledge that pilots have, which is why it's interesting to read threads like this when something like this happens. (I'm not a pilot.)

We're all complicit in the rush to jump to conclusions and speculate; and rely on unverified information. Especially in the information age. It just means that the discerning observer has to spend a bit of time cutting through the rubbish. And let's be honest - pilots wouldn't really want the press to get every detail right every time would they? If they did there'd be nothing to rant on here about.

Anyway - I really hope they find some wreckage soon. Must be terrible for the families.

[Whopity]

WWW

I do not doubt the letter you have received from a FSDO however I can find no basis for this opinion in US law.

Then I suggest you look at FAR61.3 a (1)

However; when the aircraft is operated within a foreign country, a current pilots licence issued by the country in which the aircraft is opertated may be used

So it is perfectly legal under US Law. FAR 61.75 which you quoted has nothing to do with it.

I would have expected anyone with any knowledge of operating N Reg outside the US would be familiar with this. The FSDO ruling was that "a current pilots licence valid in the foreign state" was covered under the existing law, even if it was not in accordance with ICAO Annex 1 i.e. IMC Ratings and NPPLs.

[five zero by ortac]

Vac Pump

Question for those Malibu pilots on here, does the Vac Pump also inflate the boots on this aircraft ? I used to fly a Cessna twin with TSIO-520 engines where the Vac pumps did the instruments and boots. Thankfully twins have two Vac pumps, presumeably the Malibu only has one and its failure in IMC and icing conditions could spoil your day.

[Hot 'n' High]

Originally Posted by Eutychus

Thanks for your (alarming!) answer.

It's an interesting insight from an SLF point of view that we don't perceive (or think much about) how particular factors change risk levels. I've flown in Trislanders to and from CI many times and from a layman's perspective, while it's clear there are more engines, the overall experience is similar compared to a larger aircraft.

Would any regular CI pilots like to comment on the above analysis?

My perception is that this kind of flying goes on there all the time. A few years ago I was on the same Cherokee with a senior French official (the decision to travel this way being due to industrial action at the nearest port and the imperative for them not remaining stuck outside French territory. He was a heavy guy, too.)

Eutychus, you’ll be glad to hear “chalk from cheese” when comparing this sad event (or what appears to be the operation behind it) to the good old days of the Tris out there. As you said, from your experience of those flights “… the overall experience is similar compared to a larger aircraft.”. The reason for that is that both Aurigny and Blue Island operated the Tris as an Airline with all that entails; initial Line Training on the routes to be flown, regular refresher training, full flight planning including diversions and diversion fuel, full weight and balance, full safety briefings on every flight…. The overall setup was absolutely identical to any other routes operated by larger aircraft. There are a whole raft of hoops to go through to run an Airline. Such hoops do not come cheap, but ensure the highest possible safety standards are maintained through strict adherence to a raft of processes and regulations – sadly, even that does not result in zero accident rates.

Before I go on, many, many “Charter Operations” are just as rigorous as any “Airline” and are perfectly competent /safe in their operations – indeed many Airlines do charter work as well. Where it all starts to unravel is where people set up “charter operations” (note the careful change to lower case there!), a field which has been referred to elsewhere as “grey charters”. Now, without knowing the details, I’m not saying this was one of those. But aviation is littered with people setting up “grey charters” on the cheap, or even just “doing friends a favour”. Such operators simply do not go through all the hoops Airlines or reputable Charters go through, both to set up and then maintain a safe operation. Hoops are often missed through lack of knowledge or even through deliberate avoidance and, before you know it, you are then in bandit country – with possibly a smooth-talking pilot in a reasonably well equipped plane hiding that fact. The difficulty, especially to a lay person, is sorting one from the other in that transition from “Charter Operations” to “charter operations” – sadly, there is no illuminated red dividing line. Maybe the best guide is “If it seems too good to be true….it probably is!”.

[TRUTHSEEKER1]

The references to the Graham Hill accident are from a historic accident where the main issue was a miscalculated approach into Elstree, the knock on effect from the accident was that Graham Hill was a well known racing car celebrity who had his life managed by an agent who should have kept all aircraft records in currency & also advise Graham Hill of his licence revalidation requirements. Sadly his agent wasn't clued up in Aviation & his incompetence caused the Hill family a lot more distress than just losing a family member.

The same circumstances came to light in the Colin McCrae Helicopter accident, so it would seem whilst the agents of Hill & McCrae believed they had their clients best interests at heart, they just didn't understand Aviation sufficiently to keep their aviation concerns fully covered.

I have flown celebrities & flown with celebrities and they are just happy to be getting where they want to be, they really don't care whether it is a Cessna 150 or a Kingair as long as they get to their destination.

[Silver Pegasus]

Now as the S&R phase is coming to an end.. next steps? Will they scour the sea bed using a survey vessel for the aircraft to enable it’s detection and recover it? Seeing the suggestion of possible illegal operation and aborted start ups. Surely it would be a Govt agency pushing for this to happen to get to the bottom of any aircraft faults and not just the owners insurer or players insurer to work our liability...

[Eutychus]

So what should SLF look (out) for?

Originally Posted by Hot 'n' High

The difficulty, especially to a lay person, is sorting one from the other in that transition from “Charter Operations” to “charter operations” – sadly, there is no illuminated red dividing line. Maybe the best guide is “If it seems too good to be true….it probably is!”.

Thanks for your answer.

I realise what I wrote was not very clear. I meant that from my perspective, the passenger experience on a Trislander was more like the charter (big or small c, I don't know) flights I've flown on Piper Cherokees or similar, despite it not actually being so similar for the kinds of reason you mention. (Not wishing to decrease Aurigny's professionalism in any way here though, I enjoyed all my flights with them, even when the pilot did not appear sure whether they were coming or going "welcome ladies and gentlemen, we'll be heading over to... um...."!)*.

To summarise my questions again:
1) What are pilots' assessments, regulatory issues aside, of carrying paying passengers in a single-engined piston aircraft over water, especially around the Channel Islands (not a huge distance to land, but it might well be covered in fog and the waters there are not friendly even on a calm day)? Of course "zero risk does not exist" as we say in France but from what I've read above, the gap between the actual risks and how they are perceived by users, including for VIP transport commissionned by (must be careful here re: confidentiality) let us say a reputable client, seems rather alarmingly huge.
2) Looking at the regulatory side, what should one be looking for as minimum requirements in terms of pilot's license, rating, and business arrangements to ensure that other things being equal passengers would be 'normally' insured for the trip?
3) Apologies for my continued ignorance, but what is the subtelty surrounding N-registered aircraft, as opposed to G-registered aircraft flying in this airspace? Based on my experiences related above, I'd rate the N-registered flight more 'professionally' executed with regard to safety and procedures, but possibly not strictly speaking legitimate in terms of appropriate qualifications/cover?

==
*I recall another Aurigny experience. My Guernsey-Jersey-Dinard flight was cancelled due to fog in Jersey (stop snickering) but somebody in Dinard chartered a plane from Aurigny which due to this WX had to come from Guernsey, so they flew me over all on my own on the shuttle flight (the pilot invited me to "spread myself around a bit"). Was this actually legal, regulated, insured...?

[N188LG]

As owner/pilot of an N-reg PA46 with FAA IR flying within Europe on a regular basis, I might bring some insights into the discussion
.
To me the two most important questions are:

1) why was he flying at 5000 ft?
The distance between Nantes and Cardiff is around 270nm. Even though the winds were quite strong (>60kts headwind),
I would always choose an altitude between FL160 and FL240. This would allow for a 2h flight and give enough glide distance
in case of an issue. Also at that altitude I would be out of ice completely.

I fear he was aware not to comply with all rules and tried to play it low key:
Flying an N-reg aircraft IFR in Europe across two countries is only legally possible if you hold an FAA IR Licence and maybe
if he holds both French and UK EASA IR. Very unlikely.

Also the flight sounds to me like a commercial job more than a shared cost. You take a football star across the channel at night
during winter for fun? Very unlikely. To my knowledge, you can't operate a single piston IR commercially. Neither EASA nor FAA.

Possible supportive facts could be that
a) the transponder was off or at least no 7700
b) he did not declare an emergency on the radio
c) he did not turn on ELT (you can manually turn it on before impact)

2) what would make a pilot ask to go down from 5000 ft to 2300 ft over water?
There is only one reason coming to my mind: Ice. In case of engine or electrical failure, you are not asking for lower level, but vectors to nearest field (ie. Guernsey).
The PA 46 is equipped with a variety of deice systems, but you need to be very proficient to use theme properly. Especially following systems are critical, assuming that pitot/stall heat are working
a) Alternate Air: If you forget to open alternate air, the filter clogs and the manifold pressure drops => low power
b) Prop deice: If you forget to turn it on or it is not working properly, the aircraft will start to shake like hell => low power, less control
c) Wing deice: If you forget to turn it on, or at the right time or not working properly, the aircraft will become heavy quickly and the controls bad => less control

In any of theses cases, if the autopilot is still on, it might stall and/or disconnect at the worst possible moment => loss of control
But even the autopilot is off, you will need good stick/rudder, IFR proficiency and luck to come out of this...

[vikingarmike]

I get really fed up reading about so called Grey Charters. There are either legal Charters run by companies with a valid Air Operating Certificate or illegal Charters. Using the word Grey might perhaps give them some validity. This is a very tragic situation and when the authorities come to their conclusions, all in the industry should be working to ensure that it never happens again.

[strake]

The references to the Graham Hill accident are from a historic accident where the main issue was a miscalculated approach into Elstree,

I humbly beg to differ. Painful as it may be, apart from cavalier attitudes to keeping their ratings current (they weren't), the main issues in both the the Colin McCrae and Graham Hill incidents were two pilots who had higher opinions of their skills than they, in truth, had. This caused their deaths and those of eight innocent members of the public flying with them.

The ignorance or imprudence of an overconfident pilot is, more often than not, the first step into the incident pit.

[N188LG]

PA 46 has two vacuum pumps. They do inflate the boots and provide pressurized cabin. On pre-glass models vacuum also drives instruments, like gyro and turn coordinator.