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Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island

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Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island

Old 3rd Feb 2019, 08:39
  #981 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Flap 80 View Post
Much has been said about the legality or otherwise of cost sharing , the Wingly business potentially eroding safety margins for unsuspecting customers and all discussions relate to the carriage of Human passengers.
is there a potential for similar pseudo commercial flights being made between the Channel Islands and the UK ( and vice versa) for the carriage of animals?
The Jersey Aero club Facebook page now carries an advertisement posted on January 27 th asking for someone “ to pick up a puppy at Lydd on February 16 th” and presumably to fly it to Jersey.
When I was working there, things like this were was done by club members for other club members. Quite different to the Wingly model. No idea if that it still the case.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 09:05
  #982 (permalink)  
 
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The private search vessel chartered by Mr Mearns to do the search is the FPV Morven
It moved form Southampton to Guernsey last week
Now it has left port this morning and is currently North West of Alderney
See
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais...sel:FPV_MORVEN
Click on "past track" button to go to the live map
You will need to close/move the vessel pop up picture on live map to get the unobstructed view of the course

The AAIB have chartered the GeoOcean III which left Ostend this morning
This ship is currently immediately to the North East of the Morven on the map

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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 09:35
  #983 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
With a mode S return you can very accurately calculate the ground speed and the final rate of decent
I'm still struggling to understand how that can be so. Can you explain further ?

You said previously that you were talking about Mode S and not ADS-B, but basic Mode S only gives you surveillance ID (squawk) and altitude (DF5 and DF4, respectively).

So, yes, you can calculate RoD, but the download data contains no velocity information so I don't see how it's possible to derive GS.

Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
I noticed the BEA said it will be concentrating the research within 4 square miles, so here you go.
No doubt that's true, but the estimate of final position could well have come from primary radar (possibly military?), rather than SSR.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 09:43
  #984 (permalink)  
 
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I just don't get it...Apart from the tragedy of it all,

Single-engine (piston, I gather?) day VFR flight plan in deepest winter on a mucky day with a pretty dire forecast setting off at dusk across lots of open sea with a night landing into an International airport.

The PIC has been reported allegedly not to be licensed nor have the training to have operated like this, even flying solo, let alone couple that carrying a very VIP high profile client basically paying someone for a ticket to fly.

A couple of winters ago near me here in the West Country on a completely foul weather day a family of 4 were killed near Dunkeswell in a Malibu N regn.
The weather was so bad and clagged that morning I cannot fathom why the chap took off with his wife and kids from Surrey to attempt the flight across country - even EXT airport was IMC that morning. The pilot was IMC rated
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 10:10
  #985 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by rog747 View Post
I just don't get it...Apart from the tragedy of it all,

Single-engine (piston, I gather?) day VFR flight plan in deepest winter on a mucky day with a pretty dire forecast setting off at dusk across lots of open sea with a night landing into an International airport.

The PIC has been reported allegedly not to be licensed nor have the training to have operated like this, even flying solo, let alone couple that carrying a very VIP high profile client basically paying someone for a ticket to fly.

A couple of winters ago near me here in the West Country on a completely foul weather day a family of 4 were killed near Dunkeswell in a Malibu N regn.
The weather was so bad and clagged that morning I cannot fathom why the chap took off with his wife and kids from Surrey to attempt the flight across country - even EXT airport was IMC that morning. The pilot was IMC rated
All of these accidents have one thing in common.

The pilot was determined to get to the destination.

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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 10:19
  #986 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn View Post


All of these accidents have one thing in common.

The pilot was determined to get to the destination.




Indeed - something perhaps we will never understand what goes on in the mind set to want this.

I live in rural West Dorset, quite high up - the other night at a local village about 10 miles or so West from me down little country lanes and the exposed coast road we have an awesome curry van cooking food to order for take away collection.
Heavy snow was forecast at the very time (early evening) the van was due - did I set off in the car thinking I would get there and back ?
No of course not despite the hunger and attraction of a fabulous dinner waiting that I had pre-ordered.

The next morning Dorset Police reported several RTA's and abandoned cars in snow drifts on the very route I was due to take.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 10:35
  #987 (permalink)  
 
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WHY AN AOC

The whole point of an AOC is that several people are accountable for the safe operation of the travelling public/customer.
That is why they exist. They are expensive to operate and entail much effort to obtain, but at least gives several layers of protection to the public who may not realise that this is needed.
In practice the buck stops with the pilot, but we all know there is always someone who will fly even if it means leaving their comfort zone.
Because this is a high profile case (like the Shoreham accident) I suspect the resultant investigations will reach into many levels of aviation and come back to affect even simple 'club' flying.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 11:27
  #988 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pittsextra View Post
and when all said and done, as much as we can spin our wheels for months, just how do you capture that pilot who will push on? An AOC won't do it, good stick and rudder skills won't do it, ATPL, CPL, IR and ratings to the ying yangs won't do it.
(SNIP)
Being wise after the fact isn't very helpful and what is perhaps more helpful are checks, balances and control ahead of time especially as it relates to flights where considerable pressure can be brought to bear. If we can find so many examples within days and weeks of these accidents it should not have been too difficult to find it beforehand. That nothing was done should be the important question as, if nothing else, taking action against a dead man is rather unproductive.
If as you suggest an AOC won’t prevent it, first para, what checks, balances and controls do you suggest? An AOC provides some top cover if adhered to for the operator or crew to cancel a trip. A PPL has none apart from the discipline of operating within the privileges of their license.

Your checks and balances in this event event should have been, licensed, proficiency, aircraft serviceability, airfield & navaid serviceability and weather as the basics. Surely that’s what’s required to make the go/no go decision? Access to all of those were available to the pilot and he decided to fly, why? Playing devils advocate, even if some of those basics listed above weren’t available, and a pilot still decided to fly, why?
What further checks and balances are you suggesting will have a meaningful impact, i.e. a ‘no fly’ decision, and who’s going to administer and pay for them?
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 11:40
  #989 (permalink)  
 
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Get-there-itis

That’s right, get-there-itis is a major issue here. The FAA have a few questions regarding that in their ATP syllabus. However DI was flying on an FAA 61.75 licence issued on the basis of a U.K. PPL so is unlikely to have had any FAA flight training.



Originally Posted by Mike Flynn View Post


All of these accidents have one thing in common.

The pilot was determined to get to the destination.

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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 13:06
  #990 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
...basic Mode S only gives you surveillance ID (squawk) and altitude (DF5 and DF4, respectively). So, yes, you can calculate RoD, but the download data contains no velocity information so I don't see how it's possible to derive GS.
Internal signal processing in a radar receiver is very sophisticated. As well as track/position information sent from the aircraft (if any) the receiver can determine (calculate) similar information from analysis of the RF signal itself.

By way of illustration we can look at a couple of the fields in the ASTERIX radar data exchange format. This is the format used for radar data throughout Europe and beyond. Verbatim extracts from the standards document:

Data Item I001/120, Measured Radial Doppler Speed
Radial component of the ground speed as measured by means of Doppler filter banks in radar signal processors.

Data Item I001/200, Calculated Track Velocity in Polar Coordinates
Calculated track velocity expressed in polar coordinates. Two components: CALCULATED GROUNDSPEED and CALCULATED HEADING.


So even with plain vanilla Mode C calculated track information may be available depending on the capabilities of the individual radar equipments.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 13:06
  #991 (permalink)  
 
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(2) Dave Ibbotson was offered a weekend away in Nantes with all expenses paid if he flew N264DB there & back ( Having your HOTAC paid isn't renumeration, it is an essential need whilst away from home ) Having food & drink purchased for you isn't renumeration either.
Truthseeker; the word is remuneration. The aircraft being N reg, the FAA rules are strictly pro rata share of direct operating costs; fuel, oil, rental fees and airport fees (and in Europe, ATC fees but they are not a thing for private flights in the US). "Having your HOTAC paid and food and drink purchased" are definitely not allowed by the FAA for a private pilot.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 13:28
  #992 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sir Niall Dementia View Post
Thruthseeker;

You are right in a lot of areas.

I was 15 when Neil Williams died, he and my grandfather were well acquainted, Gramps always reckoned Neil was an outstanding pilot and good bloke with a poor grasp of risk. They had both been through ETPS at different times, and from what I saw regularly argued about pushing limits, but even Gramps was very shocked by what happened. As you say, accidents happen, I've had one, fortunately caused by multiple mechanical failures.

Go back through this thread. Look at "common purpose", There was no "common purpose"

This was an N registered aircraft, it should not have been doing what it was doing and DI should not have been flying it on that task or in those conditions. If there was no reward there was no pressure to fly outside his qualifications and ability, because if there was no reward it was being flown for pleasure and experience, therefore no pressure to get to Cardiff that night at all.

And it may not be the paperwork that makes the person, BUT the paperwork can at least help protect the innocent, and the AOC training standards are laid down, you either meet them or you fail.

Two men have died utterly unnecessarily, two families are suffering as a result, but the final decision to fly always rests with the pilot, be he 100 hr ppl or 20 000hr ATPL TRE/IRE, and taking off knowing that the weather is beyond your limits, or you are out of currency, or you are unfamiliar with the aircraft, or you're being pressured because its not a jolly, but a planned, paid charter is not accidental, it is a decision not taken lightly, but usually with due consideration. When that decision is made it is not an accident, it may have been pressured, but it is still the decision of the pilot in command, and his ultimate responsibility. DI will have known the status of his qualifications, and recency, he posted about it on facebook, he will have known how happy he was in the aircraft and how confident he was with it. No matter what threats, cajoling, or promises came from either the McKays or D Henderson he could have said no.

SND
Now, I am worried because I am the same age as you. As a daft 14yr (nearly 15) I had the privilege to fly with Neil Williams a couple of times in a Twin Turboprop & a Biplane. I am only worried that someone my age uses the moniker 'SND'

I am not sure Common Purpose comes into play if DI wasn't being paid? surely it is ' just a jolly ' if someone agrees to fly an aeroplane & a passenger gets onboard?
Now, whilst I agree that if the flight falls into the ' Jolly ' category it should be the pilot in command's decision as to whether he fly's or not? ( in a perfect world that happens, but in the real world other factors come into play. )
I have in my early flying years used the " Do you fancy a weekend in 'XYZ' ? " line myself with the intent on being back by Sunday evening or even stretched it to the early doors on the Monday, if the weather turns out different to what was forecast I have been pressured by having a buddy along who needs to be back for work on the Monday to push it and depart to get them home so they don't get fired by their bosses. ( Get-homeitis has bitten quite a few ).

An AOC is granted to a company so there are strict regulations on the company attached to the AOC, the company has a duty of care to ensure their pilots are of a certain standard, some excel in finding pilots of that calibre & some settle for a lesser standard than is really needed. Yes having an AOC to fall back will be a bonus but it doesn't mean all the pilots are actually safer than the non AOC pilot who has a multitude of hours.

I agree 2 persons have died in a very sad & avoidable accident, I still maintain that DI didn't go into this with a deathwish, he undoubtably went into this under immense pressure to get Sala to Cardiff & I am sure he really did believe both sectors were to be flown within daylight hours, the fatal mistake on his behalf was to accept to fly in worsening conditions at night.

Dave Ibbotson's qualifications at the time of the accident were as below, which does show he was daylight only cleared..... Dave Henderson would I imagine have been aware of this so it would be illegal to ask as the organiser of the flight for a Daytime only pilot to fly at night, I suspect that the Night Flight part was sprung on him while he was in Nantes which then changed the gameplan somewhat !!! Supposition is that DI wouldn't have wanted to fly back at night & probably voiced that opinion to the organisers, I can only surmise that because DI was cashstrapped he was unable to ditch the trip & buy an Air ticket home, I wouldn't be surprised if the organisers said " Your only way home is sitting on the apron at Nantes, get onboard & get our client here "

All supposition but highly likely to be the way things went.

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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 13:46
  #993 (permalink)  
 
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Holding Out

The FAA term from memory is ‘Holding Out’ and I recall reading that the FAA won it’s case against a flight sharing website in 2017. This FAA term is unlikely to have been known by a 61.57 issued FAA PPL, who wouldn’t have had any written exams or alternative tuition apart from what was learned for their U.K. PPL
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 13:55
  #994 (permalink)  
 
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I know it probably wouldn’t have made a difference but the concentrated area of search today is further west and north than that being searched, certainly by sea, in the immediate hours after the accident.

Any thoughts
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:01
  #995 (permalink)  
 
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In my opinion the autopilot not the pilot was flying up until the icing overcame it and disengaged.

If they find the wreckage I suspect it will display evidence of a classic stall spin accident.

He had a great opportunity to divert in to Guernsey for the night, citing weather problems ,and still get the player back by mid morning the next day.

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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:08
  #996 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
I'm still struggling to understand how that can be so. Can you explain further ?

I don't see how it's possible to derive GS.

.
You do not need Mode S to get GS . Any radar can give you GS, if you know the Rotation RPM of the antenna , the distance covered between 2 update and bingo : GS. I a multi radar environment , the GS is very accurate. It is often displayed on the labels of ATC radar displays .
What Mode S gives you is 25ft vertical increments ( i.s.o 100 with mode C ) , with that info you can calculate pretty accurately the ROD , and notice any change . i.e. if decreasing/ increasing or steady . When you lose returns close to the ground (or in our case sea, which is typically around or below 1000ft,) If you put that info with GS you can extrapolate when the line will hit the sea..
.
No doubt that's true, but the estimate of final position could well have come from primary radar (possibly military?), rather than SSR.
Absolutely. I am pretty sure the BEA looked at a few PRI recordings to see if they match . But Primary will not give you any altitude nor Rate of descent info, and the primary returns will also stop at a certain point , generally above 1000 ft due garbling , and where the antenna is located , ( i.e. how far /how close away it is , obstacles, earth curvature , etc.. ) but with PRI you have no idea if the aircraft was descending at 200ft a min or 2000/ft/min or was just leveling off at 1000 ..., Mode S will give you that valuable info.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:10
  #997 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mike Flynn View Post
In my opinion the autopilot not the pilot was flying up until the icing overcame it and disengaged.

If they find the wreckage I suspect it will display evidence of a classic stall spin accident.

He had a great opportunity to divert in to Guernsey for the night, citing weather problems ,and still get the player back by mid morning the next day.

In normal circumstances a Pilot with a problem will seek help - I guess when you are breaking laws you press on and keep it to yourself hoping things will improve - seeking help can mean drawing a great deal of attention to yourself perhaps followed by a great deal of paperwork.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:30
  #998 (permalink)  
 
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I think that it depends on your mindset.
I doubt anyone would question his reason for diverting and closing the flight plan.

Over more than three decades I have turned back or refused to go many times.

I was once weathered in at New Orleans for a week. Worse places to be stuck.

Which is not a problem if you own the aeroplane and the time.

Others are more self confident.

Hence the saying old pilots and bold pilots.

We can go right back to Buddy Holly on this accident.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_the_Music_Died
The official investigation was carried out by the Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB, precursor to the NTSB). It emerged that Peterson had over four years of flying experience, of which one was with Dwyer Flying Service, and had accumulated 711 flying hours, of which 128 were on Bonanzas. He had also logged 52 hours of instrument flight training, although he had passed only his written examination, and was not yet qualified to operate in weather that required flying solely by reference to instruments. He and Dwyer Flying Service itself were certified to operate only under visual flight rules, which essentially require that the pilot must be able to see where he is going. However, on the night of the accident, visual flight would have been virtually impossible due to the low clouds, the lack of a visible horizon, and the absence of ground lights over the sparsely populated area.[7] Furthermore, Peterson, who had failed an instrument checkride nine months before the accident, had received his instrument training on airplanes equipped with a conventional artificial horizon as a source of aircraft attitude information, while N3794N was equipped with an older-type Sperry F3 attitude gyroscope. Crucially, the two types of instruments display the same aircraft pitch attitudeinformation in graphically opposite ways.[[url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed]citation needed]

The CAB concluded that the accident was due to "the pilot's unwise decision" to embark on a flight that required instrument flying skills he had not proved to have. A contributing factor was Peterson's unfamiliarity with the old-style attitude gyroscope fitted on board the aircraft, which may have caused him to believe that he was climbing when he was in fact descending (an example of spatial disorientation). Another contributing factor was the "seriously inadequate" weather briefing provided to Peterson, which "failed to even mention adverse flying condition which should have been highlighted".[7]
[25]


Last edited by Mike Flynn; 3rd Feb 2019 at 14:44.
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:30
  #999 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
You do not need Mode S to get GS. Any radar can give you GS, if you know the Rotation RPM of the antenna, the distance covered between 2 update and bingo: GS. In a multi radar environment, the GS is very accurate. It is often displayed on the labels of ATC radar displays.
Ah, I'm with you now. I misinterpreted your post as meaning that it was Mode S that the GS was derived from.

Yes, I understand how GS can be derived from successive radar plots (or of course extracted direct from EHS or ADS-B transmissions from aircraft thus equipped).
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Old 3rd Feb 2019, 14:56
  #1000 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sark View Post
I know it probably wouldn’t have made a difference but the concentrated area of search today is further west and north than that being searched, certainly by sea, in the immediate hours after the accident.

Any thoughts
Looks like it’s international waters...
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