Cardiff City Footballer Feared Missing after aircraft disappeared near Channel Island
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A Piper Malibu 310 glides at a bit better than 10:1, i.e., if you’re up at 25,000′ (5 miles) you can hopefully glide more than 47.25sm / 41.25nm miles horizontally. If the glide was commenced at 5,000' he would have only had 9.45sm / 8.25nm until SPLASHDOWN !!! Now with the emphasis on him requesting a descent to 2,300' his glide from there would be less than 4.35sm / 3.8nm if the donkey quit or 2mins 30secs to SPLASHDOWN !!!
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A Premiership football club isn’t a corner shop. They have a duty of care to their employees. If they drove him from the airport to the training ground in a company car they should have checked the licence of the driver and given him a set of rules related to the use of the car. So how is aviation any different, how can you just absolve yourself of any responsibility? I know the club position is that they aren’t responsible because the player made his own arrangements. However all the parties involved had contractural relationships with each other. I have also read the argument that passengers don’t have enough knowledge to know when they are at risk. Well these are multi million pound organisations, so if you don’t have enough knowledge to know what a licensed air carrier is or don’t want to buy in that expertise, then send your employees by scheduled flight.
I think you need to read up on the facts before spouting off.
This was a personal trip, to go back and say farewell to his ex-team mates. Cardiff did offer to arrange a commercial flight for him, but he declined the offer, because he did not want to go via Paris. Had this just been a case of bringing his luggage to Cardiff, then CCFC would have arranged the freight for him, but he decided to take McKay up on his offer of a direct flight.
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Pertinent nevertheless, considering an aircraft equipped and certified for flight in known icing operating within radar cover in probable icing conditions requests a descent to an altitude where it is possibly still icing apparently disappears from radar at 2,300ft.
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Very good reason to believe that the surface de-ice was known to be inop on the subject aircraft.
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I think we agree, all else being considered, that the aircraft should have been cruising at levels around 15,000 or 20,000 feet.
I have read every thread so far, probably not remembering all I have read. Has anyone mentioned oxygen yet ?
If the aircraft had oxygen, can we guess that the pilot would have been familiar with the system enough to use it and to get the passenger to use it ?
I have read every thread so far, probably not remembering all I have read. Has anyone mentioned oxygen yet ?
If the aircraft had oxygen, can we guess that the pilot would have been familiar with the system enough to use it and to get the passenger to use it ?
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@keni010,
Even putting aside gliding distance considerationsm, flying IFR (or VFR on top ending IFR) was the only reasonable plan possible with this aircraft when you put the following facts together:
1.- The EGFF TAF was forecasting an arrival in conditions below VMC minima.
TAF was:
EGFF 211644Z 2116/2212 22012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 2116/2120 7000 -RA TEMPO
2120/2124 23016G26KT 6000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2120/2124 27020G30KT 4000 RA
BKN006 BECMG 2121/2124 28012KT TEMPO 2208/2212 6000 SHRA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO
2208/2210 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2210/2212 SHRA TSGS BKN008
2.- Night VFR requires that the ceiling is at minimum 1500 ft in airspace F and G and minimum 2000 ft in airspaces B, C, D, E.
To me, all this means:
- if de-ice equipment inop or pilot not trained : no-go
- if de-ice equipment and pilot are ok : IFR flight plan with fuel for destination EGFF + fuel for a UK alternate (eg: Oxford EGTK) + fuel to come back to Nantes LFRS
That's not a problem with 2 POB : full tank range with economy cruise is +/- 1380 nm, plus 45 min holding
See SERA.5005 in https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ...01:0066:EN:PDF
The TAF at EGJJ indicated that the conditions would not be fulfilled over the Channel Islands:
EGJJ 211707Z 2118/2203 20010KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030 TEMPO 2118/2124 -RA BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 2118/2121 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 2121/2123 22020KT BECMG 2202/2203
31017KT NSW SCT015
3.- The weather maps on a LFRS-EGFF route shows that the tops were between FL100 and FL150 for most of the route with some scattered clouds higher right above EGFF
4.- VFR on top would have been possible but the Cardiff weather would have required an IFR arrival.
Highest possible VFR level being FL195 (in France, not sure if it is not lower in UK).
Of course, an IFR flight above weather was also possible with an arrival in IMC.
5.- In all cases, the di-icing equipment needed to be operational for the arrival, and the pilot trained to using it.
In case of de-icing equipment failure, the closest airport without icing conditions on arrival that I could find was the departure airport LFRS.
TAF LFRS 211700Z 2118/2224 VRB03KT CAVOK
BECMG 2123/2201 18010KT
BECMG 2202/2204 4000 -RA BKN012 BKN030
TEMPO 2204/2207 2500 RA BKN007
BECMG 2207/2209 32010KT CAVOK
BECMG 2213/2215 25007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 2215/2220 4000 SHRA BKN020TCU=
Even putting aside gliding distance considerationsm, flying IFR (or VFR on top ending IFR) was the only reasonable plan possible with this aircraft when you put the following facts together:
1.- The EGFF TAF was forecasting an arrival in conditions below VMC minima.
TAF was:
EGFF 211644Z 2116/2212 22012KT 9999 SCT035 TEMPO 2116/2120 7000 -RA TEMPO
2120/2124 23016G26KT 6000 RA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO 2120/2124 27020G30KT 4000 RA
BKN006 BECMG 2121/2124 28012KT TEMPO 2208/2212 6000 SHRA BKN010 PROB30 TEMPO
2208/2210 3000 SHRA SHRASN BKN008 PROB30 TEMPO 2210/2212 SHRA TSGS BKN008
2.- Night VFR requires that the ceiling is at minimum 1500 ft in airspace F and G and minimum 2000 ft in airspaces B, C, D, E.
To me, all this means:
- if de-ice equipment inop or pilot not trained : no-go
- if de-ice equipment and pilot are ok : IFR flight plan with fuel for destination EGFF + fuel for a UK alternate (eg: Oxford EGTK) + fuel to come back to Nantes LFRS
That's not a problem with 2 POB : full tank range with economy cruise is +/- 1380 nm, plus 45 min holding
See SERA.5005 in https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ...01:0066:EN:PDF
The TAF at EGJJ indicated that the conditions would not be fulfilled over the Channel Islands:
EGJJ 211707Z 2118/2203 20010KT 9999 FEW015 BKN030 TEMPO 2118/2124 -RA BKN015
PROB30 TEMPO 2118/2121 7000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 2121/2123 22020KT BECMG 2202/2203
31017KT NSW SCT015
3.- The weather maps on a LFRS-EGFF route shows that the tops were between FL100 and FL150 for most of the route with some scattered clouds higher right above EGFF
4.- VFR on top would have been possible but the Cardiff weather would have required an IFR arrival.
Highest possible VFR level being FL195 (in France, not sure if it is not lower in UK).
Of course, an IFR flight above weather was also possible with an arrival in IMC.
5.- In all cases, the di-icing equipment needed to be operational for the arrival, and the pilot trained to using it.
In case of de-icing equipment failure, the closest airport without icing conditions on arrival that I could find was the departure airport LFRS.
TAF LFRS 211700Z 2118/2224 VRB03KT CAVOK
BECMG 2123/2201 18010KT
BECMG 2202/2204 4000 -RA BKN012 BKN030
TEMPO 2204/2207 2500 RA BKN007
BECMG 2207/2209 32010KT CAVOK
BECMG 2213/2215 25007KT
PROB30 TEMPO 2215/2220 4000 SHRA BKN020TCU=
Last edited by Luc Lion; 29th Jan 2019 at 13:20.
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The above quote is is only supposition, my betting is that the Wing De-ice systems were in working order ( leading edge / stabilator / tailplane ) The propeller has de-ice as well.....now the unknown in all this is: Had the pilot read the POH for the PA46 310 ? ( It is 370 pages )
reason for AOC
AOC's do not stop accidents, but at least they have an impact on the level of service been offered and reduce the risks.
AOC's are safety related not profit driven, plus are expensive to operate, but they exist to protect travellers from the potential consequences of cost cutting and poor standards.
Whatever happened to this aircraft, I would suggest happened very quickly and was quite dramatic due to the fact it just "disappeared" in an area of good radar cover at 2300ft altitude, and there was no mayday, pan call or informative communication. IF icing was a factor it's possible he flew into or descended into an area of freezing rain which accumulates nasty clear icing very quickly. An aircraft with that low speed and very limited anti/de-icing capability would be in big trouble. IIRC freezing rain brought down a Citation (Mustang?) on approach into Friedrichshafen a year or two ago.
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The PA46 is prone to icing and has quite a few quirks such as not having an automatic door for the alternate air source. When this ices up the performance drops off and unless you are on the ball monitoring it can go unnoticed. It is also prone to icing up of the static vents and again know where the alternate static source is located and when to activate it requires a through knowledge of the aircraft. I never flew it low level more than short hops between positioning airfields. I generally always flew it high 20-25,000ft as a rule IFR regardless of conditions and always trying to end up on an Instrument approach where possible. As a VFR aircraft low it has very poor visibility low out the front and requires a lot of work to keep a good look out so was mush easier just to go full IFR.
I have seen the static source freeze on it so that the altimeter and VSI are frozen and of course the reaction could be to shove the nose down further rather than CRM a solution and go to alternate static.
I have seen the static source freeze on it so that the altimeter and VSI are frozen and of course the reaction could be to shove the nose down further rather than CRM a solution and go to alternate static.
Anything but an expert - can I ask, what does "Disappeared from radar" actually mean? The plane descended from cruising level to surface level in less time than it takes for a radar dish to rotate once?
Radar is, essentially, line-of-sight. An aircraft doesn't have necessarily to be at sea level before it's invisible to radar.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_horizon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_horizon
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C52, . what was said was radar contact was lost from the radar display which the controller was looking at when controlling the aircraft.
Many possible reasons for that : you can put any filter on your display being altitude or garbling filters at low level., but that said a normal APP SSR radar , can detect transponder replies quite low over the sea . A primary radar is more likely to have a filter a low altitude to avoid picking up windmills and ships..
I do not think the aircraft "disappeared" from all radars around, and they are quite a few.
It could indeed have picked up ice, stalled and dived down quickly,
The other possibility besides icing is that it could have had a major failure , i.e electric which would explain the sudden stoppage of the transponder and absence of mayday call.
Many possible reasons for that : you can put any filter on your display being altitude or garbling filters at low level., but that said a normal APP SSR radar , can detect transponder replies quite low over the sea . A primary radar is more likely to have a filter a low altitude to avoid picking up windmills and ships..
I do not think the aircraft "disappeared" from all radars around, and they are quite a few.
It could indeed have picked up ice, stalled and dived down quickly,
The other possibility besides icing is that it could have had a major failure , i.e electric which would explain the sudden stoppage of the transponder and absence of mayday call.
Assuming we are talking about Jersey Radar (happy to be corrected if not) then I believe it is SSR only. See Replacement of Air Traffic Control Radar
19 August 2016
A 6-month project to remove the old primary radar and replace the secondary radar system along the Island's north coast is due to begin week commencing 22 August 2016. Although both primary and secondary radar systems are currently used by Jersey Airport the reliance on the former has decreased over the years and it also conflicts with the island's 4G mobile phone system. The decision has been taken to remove this primary radar and upgrade the secondary radar.
An aircraft could still be in the Designated Operational Coverage area (“in cover”) and not be ‘seen’ for several reasons. E.g. transponder switched off or unserviceable.
19 August 2016
A 6-month project to remove the old primary radar and replace the secondary radar system along the Island's north coast is due to begin week commencing 22 August 2016. Although both primary and secondary radar systems are currently used by Jersey Airport the reliance on the former has decreased over the years and it also conflicts with the island's 4G mobile phone system. The decision has been taken to remove this primary radar and upgrade the secondary radar.
An aircraft could still be in the Designated Operational Coverage area (“in cover”) and not be ‘seen’ for several reasons. E.g. transponder switched off or unserviceable.
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TRUTHSEEKER ...Yes, that's what I said re. glide distance, I estimated glide distance to be about 2 miles for each 1,000 feet of height had, given that there were only two on board ... we agree then.
My point was more to do with this pilot apparently not considering staying over land for as long as possible, thus making the intended channel crossing as short as possible. This wouldn't have taken the plane far off of it's direct route, the route it looks like it took and which led to the plane being over the open sea when whatever problem occurred. It appears that had he done this (and assuming an engine failure was the problem), then he would probably have been able to make a forced landing on the French mainland ... not an easy thing to do at night of course but a far better option than being forced to ditch in the open sea.
If it was some kind of structural failure which occurred then there was nothing that could have been done of course but the chances of that occurring are statistically very small indeed.
My point was more to do with this pilot apparently not considering staying over land for as long as possible, thus making the intended channel crossing as short as possible. This wouldn't have taken the plane far off of it's direct route, the route it looks like it took and which led to the plane being over the open sea when whatever problem occurred. It appears that had he done this (and assuming an engine failure was the problem), then he would probably have been able to make a forced landing on the French mainland ... not an easy thing to do at night of course but a far better option than being forced to ditch in the open sea.
If it was some kind of structural failure which occurred then there was nothing that could have been done of course but the chances of that occurring are statistically very small indeed.
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Luc Lion ... I agree with what you say about flying IFR at a sensible height in this situation and as you say, if the de-icing equipment was u/s or the pilot unfamiliar with its use then then it would have been irresponsible of the pilot to go ahead with that IFR flight. It seems he wanted to fly VFR though and it is this which has me make the point on him staying over land for as long as possible ... see my original post ... but even this is only ok for so long ... the min. 60 mile Channel crossing still has to be made and it seems daft to plan to make that crossing at 2000 feet ... or even 5000 feet, in a single engined aircraft.