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Plane down Overbury, Tewkesbury.

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Plane down Overbury, Tewkesbury.

Old 14th Jan 2018, 08:45
  #41 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Warwick
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by Whopity View Post
Yet another sad CFIT event. Speculation and irrelevant aircraft tracks don't help.
Conditions are VMC. VFR are Rules!
CFIT usually is! Witnesses reported it flew into a tree.
Familiarity does not help if you can't see.
But ATC had lost contact with them at 1240!

Whilst you are waiting for more factual information you might like to read CAA Safety Sense Leaflet 23 Para 6 describes circumstances which match this accident perfectly. There was an almost identical event last January on the Chiltern Hills.
I've done enough flying in poor visibility to know what is high risk and what isn't but in this case CFIT is not an automatic cause there are other possibilities.

They hit a tree but we're they "in control"
The instructor probably flew on the area every week he knew hill was there
ATC were tracking them before the crash, they have the track and flight details and maybe some RT.

If they were attempting an instruction flight under VFR rules I would want to know what minimums the Flying school operate to AND do they enforce them, this is not a private pilot risking his own neck it is a Flying School, which is a responsible and accountable organization.

I do know a lot more about the circumstances of the flight that cause me concern, they will be made public when the AAIB report.
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 15:03
  #42 (permalink)  
 
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I do know a lot more about the circumstances of the flight that cause me concern, they will be made public when the AAIB report.
Why should you hold back from airing these concerns? It seems very odd that you might allow a Blogs 2 to continue to put himself in a compromised position until (possibly) the end of 2018 when the AAIB are likely to report finally....
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 16:23
  #43 (permalink)  
 
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Yes, do share DS
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 17:10
  #44 (permalink)  
 
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He is probably reluctant to share as he doesn't want to add to the 'rumour mill'. People hear one thing and then propagate it as fact. For eg this statement that the aircraft was seen 'in a tree'. In the pictures the aircraft is in the middle of a crop field, nowhere near a tree. None of the damage is consistent with hitting a tree and all the wreckage is together.

Wreckage is not permitted to be moved (to allow the AAIB to properly investigate based on what ended up where). There are no trenches or other marks in the ground so my (totally unofficial) view is that it struck the ground here going largely straight down.

This would make it NOT a CFIT as the C stands for 'controlled'. Despite someone else's comment above I think the damage does resemble a spin. Just look up images of other aircraft that have spun in. I fly a lot in this area and the route they were going - back towards Glos (again this is only rumour until confirmed by AAIB) they were actually gaining ground clearance here which again cuts against the theory of this being CFIT into an unseen hill rising beneath them.

The AAIB will be able to sift through all the rumour, find the facts and report when they have done the due diligence a case like this deserves. Hopefully we can all learn something from this tragedy that has cost the lives of fellow aviators.
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 20:03
  #45 (permalink)  
 
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Very strange accident... Possible that the aircraft was positioning from Coventry or Wellesbourne and hit the only high ground on track?

WX changed quickly on that day and the TAF was revised around the time of the accident. Likely METAR's available before departure:

METAR EGBJ 081120Z 08003KT 9999 FEW009 BKN015 03/01 Q1022=
METAR EGBJ 081150Z 05002KT 8000 FEW008 BKN014 02/01 Q1022=

TAF available before departure:

TAF EGBJ 081102Z 0812/0821 04008KT 9999 BKN016
BECMG 0812/0815 BKN012
PROB30 TEMPO 0815/0821 4000 -DZ BKN007=

TAF at time of accident:

TAF AMD EGBJ 081240Z 0812/0821 04008KT 9999 BKN010
TEMPO 0812/0821 8000 -DZ BKN007
PROB30 TEMPO 0812/0821 4500 BR=

Other traffic in the area would suggest VMC on top, so one would hope with an instructor on board they were not scud running and had another issue that prevented a climb.

I think even with the icing risk I'd have gone up to a terrain/obstacle safe altitude, you can always come back down.

Sad event.
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 20:10
  #46 (permalink)  
 
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METAR around the time of the accident, being worse even than the revised TAF.

METAR EGBJ 081250Z 05003KT 3500 -DZ BR BKN006 OVC010 02/02
Q1021=

Less than ideal for a SEP IFR flight even if that is what was planned. On those forecasts it would be very easy to get suckered into departing VFR for a familiar route and getting caught well short.
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 23:04
  #47 (permalink)  
 
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I have no more knowledge than anyone else on how this particular accident happened, but can’t help wonder if weather related CFIT in general needs to be addressed differently in the primary training syllabus. It’s been a while since I sat my PPL but IIRC the focus on how to execute an off field landing including glide distance, checklists etc was always taught as a response primarily or indeed solely to “if your engine quits” why is “if you get in over your head and are scud running “ not taught as having equally weight as a reason for emergency off field landing? This “must get back to a tar runway or home base” thought process is killing people. It should be drummed into students that when things get dodgy the minute you decide to pull the power you are no longer flying a local club or syndicate aircraft but instead are operating a piece of equipment that’s just been purchased by a large financial services company who have tasked you with getting it on the ground uninjured and have provided you with some sacrificial hardware such as wings and landing gear to be used to arrest your speed once on the deck. Most sub 1 ton gross weight spamcans stall out at around 50mph so your chances of surviving (very possibly uninjured) even if you completely mince the airplane are high, not so for a scud running CFIT.
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Old 14th Jan 2018, 23:50
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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I am not so sure about stalling the aircraft, or departing from controlled flight. Stall the a/c and the vertical speed increases at an alarming rate, even close to the ground. Going in under control a lot of energy is absorbed by the wings etc..

Have a look at the clip below and see proof of a high chance of survival if you go in under control. these guys went in under control, albeit inadvertently. Their ground speed would have been relatively high also considering the Density Altitude. Same goes for an attempted turn back after an EFATO. Land ahead, under control! Stall or depart from controlled flight I.E., Stall/Spin, you will die. Period.

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Old 15th Jan 2018, 00:09
  #49 (permalink)  
 
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I meant a normal short field approach and landing under control, the reference to the stall speed was how slow you can get it down to if you really try. Not these excessive speeds over the 1.30 or even 1.25 x Vso that seem to be taught.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 00:12
  #50 (permalink)  
 
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Ok, fair enough. Point taken.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 05:33
  #51 (permalink)  
 
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I believe more information is to be released today, however the findings of the AAIB is almost certainly going to be some time. Possibly 12 months or more before the likely cause is known.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 06:55
  #52 (permalink)  
 
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No further comment from me but the last few posts are on the right lines.
There have been quite a few crashes where very experienced pilots were in command and came to grief because margins were cut, Shoreham, Chilterns, Seaplane and now Breedon Hill, they all had been so familiar with their operation that they became relaxed and got bitten.

We have all made mistakes, if you have altitude you learn from it, but at low level you don't get a chance to learn. It is essential that instructors teach pilots how to handle crap conditions but not at low level.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 10:35
  #53 (permalink)  
 
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I don't advocate scud running for one minute, however if you're caught up in a lowering ceiling/vis situation, you need to reduce a/s and lower the stall speed. This is done of course by lowering flap, not to mention helps lower the nose. Then turn around and get the hell out.

It can be likened to driving at night with dimmed lights on an unlit country road. You need to slow down as not to "out drive" the range of your headlights, therefore visibility..

When is the time to turn back? When you first think about it. Most of us don't of course and there lies the risk.

Last edited by Dan_Brown; 16th Jan 2018 at 16:29.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 11:14
  #54 (permalink)  
 
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He is probably reluctant to share as he doesn't want to add to the 'rumour mill'. People hear one thing and then propagate it as fact.
Couple of things. Firstly this is a rumour mill and we are all adding to it. Secondly I can not remember an accident in recent years where very many on here had failed to call things almost spot on from the very beginning. But the poster in this case seems to suggest there are other factors, which surely if more cultural to a particular entity, highlighting the same becomes a matter where time is important?
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 11:58
  #55 (permalink)  
 
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You don't have to join too many dots to conclude the weather played a major role in this accident.

This picture shows how dense the fog was when the emergency services arrived on site.


I am still curious to know the relationship of G-OOMA to this event considering they were both operated by the same flying club. The fact they were at the same location with minutes suggests more than co-incidence.

Last edited by Mike Flynn; 15th Jan 2018 at 12:27.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 14:09
  #56 (permalink)  
 
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Names now in public domain....

Men who died in plane crash named and one was from Gloucestershire - Gloucestershire Live

Very sad - had many happy years instructing at Aeros in Gloucester.

Last edited by aztec25; 15th Jan 2018 at 17:51.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 17:14
  #57 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pittsextra View Post
Couple of things. Firstly this is a rumour mill and we are all adding to it.
Yes and I like a nice juicy rumour as much as the next guy/gal but in this case there are things we hear on the grapevine that if we repeat are in effect us pointing the finger at specific individuals for the death of another (or the same) individual. Kind of takes the thrill out of it for me! Would rather work with facts for the finger pointing!

I flew near the site today but was too busy to divert to have a look at the surroundings to see how the land lies there. Maybe next time I am up.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 17:55
  #58 (permalink)  
 
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PM - Yes I hear you. Although as Jay Sata posted it doesn't take a scientist to see where the main factor of this sits but DeltaSierra seems quite specific about other items of relevance which are quite curious. Now people have been named btw [and as an aside] seems a bad few months for pilots of differing nationalities flying in the UK.
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Old 15th Jan 2018, 21:04
  #59 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PeteMonty View Post
He is probably reluctant to share as he doesn't want to add to the 'rumour mill'. People hear one thing and then propagate it as fact. For eg this statement that the aircraft was seen 'in a tree'. In the pictures the aircraft is in the middle of a crop field, nowhere near a tree. None of the damage is consistent with hitting a tree and all the wreckage is together.

Wreckage is not permitted to be moved (to allow the AAIB to properly investigate based on what ended up where). There are no trenches or other marks in the ground so my (totally unofficial) view is that it struck the ground here going largely straight down...
An absence of trees in the photos does not rule out the aircraft hitting one. I was looking in particular at the semi-circular fold in the leading edge of the starboard wing close to the tip. Any thoughts on that please?



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Old 15th Jan 2018, 21:31
  #60 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone have any idea what minima this school work to? Evidently one of the crew was qualified to be operating the flight IFR, but in an SEP if your one engine stops turning you can still be IMC but unable to maintain IFR until you become VMC. Then you need enough altitude/time to find a place to put down safely.

Allowing transition from instruments to visual that's about a minute in a PA28 if you have 1000ft to play with when you drop out of the muck. Assuming they didn't just blunder into a hill they might have had this space pretty much anywhere else enroute, but it wouldn't be good VMC.

IFR in a single needs a bit more thought and risk evaluation than looking at departure and destination.

Hopefully the AAIB get the answers to why this tragic event happened.
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