HWD
These airline induced oscilations that have been evident for the last 20-30 years are partly down to how difficult it is to respond to the need for pilots when the demand is there and how remote such a career seems when there is no demand.
I think you will find that the oscillations are more as a consequence of general economic 'boom and bust'. The aviation industry is a very close barometer for the general economic climate; In the good times businesses tend to be happier to fund business travel and holidaymakers more likely to book up for their two weeks of sun, perhaps more than once a year. As soon as the economy contracts the aviation industry starts to suffer. Businesses tighten the belt and the average punter has to cut back on the non-essentials.
I think you should be lobbying your politicians to avoid the boom and bust and provide stability, which would benefit most industries, aviation included. I'm no great fan of the present UK government, but one thing they realized was the the last governments policies induced boom and bust in the economy and they had to get away from that.
I am of the firm belief that there are fewer people trying to get into aviation because it is so indifferent to trainees. This will surely result in another skills vacuum in the not too distant future.
I think the evidence is to the contrary; there are too many people trying to get into this industry as pilots and plenty with the required qualities. I don't see the training establishments going bust left, right and centre even after the downturn caused by Sept 11th.
This will surely result in another skills vacuum in the not too distant future. Some might think that is good for their prospects, it will be, for about three to ten years before you face redunancy.
I can't see it in the near future. Who knows what the market and the economy will be like in 5 years even? The long term theory is for increased demand in air transport but there will still be hiccups along the way.
PP