Long time.
I agree with everything you have said, except I don't think their real goal is ARAPA. That is a classic mis-direction which appears to be working just fine.
I think the real aim is much bigger - to them and to the pilot body - and much more costly to all of us.
Imagine the savings to be had if all 3000 (4000?) pilots can now fly to 90 or 92 hours free of overtime? That would make the ARAPA cuts seem like a rounding error.
And what's more, this will come like a bolt out of the blue to those on HKPA because they think they've dodged a bullet up till now.
So yes, we are that stupid.