We are very seasonal though, yes we can get 500,000+ May-September, and 600,000 in July and August, but outside of that we barely scrape 250-300,000.
If growth remains the same, we could then look at hitting 500,000 reliably through April and October and hitting above 300,000 in the weakest months, January, February and November. With this, 650-700,000 could be attainable in July and August.
5 months - 500,000+
5 months - 300,000+
2 months - 600,000+
Would give us an absolute minimum of 5.5 million.
I have been on night shift and had too much time on my hands... So I sat and did this last night. Obviously it's very rough, but if growth remains at 12% we'll hit 6 million in 2018
01/17 - 280,200 (+16.8%) 01/18 - ? 314,328
02/17 - 287,609 (+12.3%) 02/18 - ? 322,639
03/17 - 334,553 (+11.2%) 03/18 - ? 375,301
04/17 - 407,599 (+18.0%) 04/18 - ? 457,245
05/17 - 510,342 (+13.1%) 05/18 - ? 572,501
06/17 - 587,953 (+10.8%) 06/18 - ? 659,566
07/17 - 618,365 (+15.1%) 07/18 - ? 693,681
08/17 - 624,233 (+7.30%) 08/18 - ? 700,264
09/16 - 534,516 (+7.00%) 09/17 - ? 599,620 -> 09/18 - 672,654
10/16 - 444,660 (+6.30%) 10/17 - ? 498,819 -> 10/18 - 559,575
11/16 - 296,167 (+9.80%) 11/17 - ? 332,240 -> 11/18 - 372,703
12/16 - 305,842 (+18.4%) 12/17 - ? 343,094 -> 12/18 - 384,883
(Avg % increase 12.18%)
Total (12 month rolling) - 5,232,039 --- 2017 estimate - 5,424,627
2018 estimate: 6,085,340 (based on 12.18% growth, 2016-2017, 2017-2018)
For this to happen though, we'd need equivalent growth from last year. So realistically we're talking about needing 3/4 new year round FR/EZY routes (x2 or more weekly) as well as 2 or more high frequency summer routes (x4 weekly - Daily)
Alternatively, but less likely, a 4th based EZY frame, or an 8th 737 from Jet2 would likely achieve the same
All we can do is wait... But it's fun to speculate