PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - A bleak future for Aviation?
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Old 8th Sep 2003, 05:10
  #29 (permalink)  
Neo
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Unwiseowl -

Was that really necessary? I thought we had seen the back of that moron Carruthers for a while!

Carruthers -

You're quite entitled to your opinions of course, even if they are utter bilge not fit for exposure to the light of day.

Who charges £300 to go to Paris these days? Well, depends who you book with and when. Book early with BA and you can go as cheap as if you book at the same time with easyJet. Book on the day of travel and you'll be stung for a lot more, whichever airline. Just because the LoCos introduce a new business model doesn't mean that the traditional carriers will stand still. In fact BA have dropped their prices on routes where they compete with easyJet; if it makes a loss then they can support it with profits from their long haul, first and business class revenue. That's something the LoCos can't do. Their busess model is vulnerable to competition from airlines with other sources of revenue. This includes the traditional carriers and the charters. The former have premium traffic to boost revenue and the charters have a low cost base and their charter work. So don't bank on the LoCos being around for ever, particularly if Jo Public gets fed up with being told "What part of no refund don't you understand" and being given poor service, even if it is for only pennies. Of course, some will survive, but all of them now springing up out of the woodwork - I don't think so.

Pilots are cheap and plentiful? They certainly aren't cheap. Whilst they may well be paying for their own courses while employment prospects are thin, they are paying up to £100k for the privilege. Of course, airline managements are smiling because this cost does not fall on their airline. However, easyJet have signed a very large contract for pilot training recently, so they don't think that the supply of trained pilots is oversubscribed. Mind you, with 120 A319's on order thay will soak up a lot of trained pilots. They maight even start offering £30k golden hellos for type rated pilots as they did for the B737-300 a while ago. The cheap and plentiful air travel introduced by the LoCos is driving growth in the industry which will soak up a lot of pilots, particularly as the LoCos are acquiring larger numbers of smaller airliners. You may crow at the thought of pilots facing poor employment prospects and reduced terms and conditions, but remember that the market forces you fondly talk about have always been present in our industry and the demand for pilots is very cyclical. How will you control your apoplexy when pilots are getting £50k golden hellos and salaries of £150k+ for a junior LoCo Captain?

But then, you could try to fly on an automated aircraft that you rave about so much. Trouble is, they won't appear until long after you and I are dead. Why? You are right when you say it is relatively simple to set up a commercial flight profile. After all we arrogant, redundant pilots use computers to do it all the time. The problem comes when you try to fly the profile. How many lines of computer code would a fully automatic aircraft require to cope with all the unforseen events that occur in flight? It may not matter if an AGM-109B goes off course and crashes away from its intended target, but I don't think the same can be said of a passenger carrying aircraft.

And you think that managers can cope with irate pax etc. etc. What, you mean like Michael O'Leary? And how would desk-bound management cope with terrorists on board, or a SAM attack? They simply have to leave the flight deck for a while? What planet are you on! September the 11th. mean anything to you at all?

The vast majority of pilots who have passengers in their care take pride in getting them home safely and punctually. In the face of increasing demands and threats, skilled pilots are needed more than ever. And they're worth paying for. If you don't think so, then you need a check up from the neck up!