Originally Posted by
flying free.LEVC
Hi guys, I know this is a bit of a tabu, a sensitive topic for GA pilots but maybe we should start leaving our ego on the ground
Like that's ever going to happen...
My thoughts - full ejection from a military aeroplane within the ejection envelope is (IIRC) rated as a 95% probability of survival, mostly with injuries. Outside the ejection envelope I believe that drops to under 25%.
I can't find any readily available data, but I'm fairly sure I read somewhere that "taking to the silk" in the 1940s was regarded as a 50-50 chance at best, and most of these aircraft had either open cockpits or direct exit from the seat through a (usually jettesoned) canopy space.
The closer analogy for GA pilots would be the crew of bombers who had to go to an emergency exit to get out. I understand that the probability of surviving by parachhuting from a crippled RAF bomber was thought to be under 10%, because if the aeroplane is gyrating or burning it may be a real struggle just getting to the hatch. I understand the typical Luftwaffe bombers were even worse in this regard.
Now look at a typical GA aeroplane - non-jettesonable doors which are small, and awkward to get through even on the ground. Imagine trying to open them against the airflow in a gyrating aeroplane with an engine fire. Then imagine trying to set yourself up to jump clear in a specific direction so that your skull doesn't get escalloped by the tailplane.
My personal view is that the probability of me ever being in a position where leaving the aeroplane in flight might be necessary for survival is very, very small. Actually having a parachute with me increases the survival probability
by a miniscule amount. Therefore the reduced risk is disproportionate to the cost and operational constraints of having the thing with me*.
It's the same reason for my view of the Lottery. The probability of me winning is absolutely tiny, and it's not really made significantly bigger by actually buying a ticket...
PDR
* That's actually the technical definition of ALARP - spooky, huh!