Does Ryanair need Luton and does Luton need Ryanair?!
I wonder if we are gradually beginning to see the slow demise of Ryanair at Luton, with all these routes changing between LTN and STN...
I have no insider information, but when you look at how other Ryanair bases usually expand over the years and Luton has just stagnated, it makes you wonder if the management at Luton have no interest in entertaining a new cut-price deal for the airline.
Luton is in a very strong position with Ryanair, where they don't need to bow to their demands of minimal airport charges, unlike what they can demand at other regional airports. Especially with airlines like Wizzair and easyJet going from strength to strength, and would probably quickly snap up these 4-5 stands. Especially if the news in the Luton Herald and Post (which was posted on here a few weeks ago, but not seen in any other news outlets!), is correct that easyJet have agreed to double in size over the next 10 years at the airport.
Also it sounds like Ryanair have agreed very favourable long term charges with MAG at Stansted, and for future growth plans there. So it makes the need for a Luton base less necessary for a bargaining chip (especially as BAA no longer dominate the London airport scene), and having another London base 25 miles from Stansted is probably a cost they can do without.
If anything Ryanair should look to growing their presence to the south of the Thames, where the money is and attract this market, which probably doesn't consider Stansted for flights unless not available or substantially cheaper than routes from Gatwick.
I would be highly surprised if we saw Ryanair leave altogether, but they could easily maintain a Dublin link with an aircraft from this base and the same for other routes from appropriate bases if they felt necessary to fill this market...