Sir Korsky, you should become an accident investigator. Your insight is truly amazing and is wasted if you do not offer your services to the NTSB or similar. Well done for putting that scenario together.
Now all we need to do is get rid of the "ifs", "probablies" and "likelies". But they're not that important if you've already figured out the scenario.
Listen to yourself ffs. There are people dead here and you are making stuff up.
Tam