Many posts have fallen foul of hindsight bias.
The safety risk for an occurrence is a projection, a judgment of likely-hood and severity of outcome.
The risk in an event should not be judged after the fact, based on the outcome, on the findings of investigation, or on what could have happened. Nor should 'after-cast' risk / activity be based on the number of people who were subject to the risk during the event; a fatal accident is just as fatal for one person as for many.
Risk considers the potential for harm or fatality in a future event.
As a derivative of a civil aircraft with a 'novel' control system, then the risk of a jammed control would have had an extensive assessment. The certification would have considered system limiting and airframe integrity, and mitigating intervention by the second pilot; but other than for takeoff or landing this may not have considered the absence of that pilot; perhaps concluding that the risk was acceptable as defined by a previously agreed standard.
Arguably the risk of a similar event would be less because of publicity, but would that involve all similar aircraft, all operators irrespective of publicity, or at some future date when we forget lessons learnt.
Would the after-cast risk be judged differently if the second pilot was able to intervene earlier, or the pilot flying seen and removed the obstruction with minimum flight path deviation.
Judgement after the event might be appropriate where
'negligence' is defined as
failure to exercise the skill, care, and learning expected of a reasonably prudent person; however the more serious category of 'recklessness' (appreciating that these definitions may not match those in a CM)
- a conscious disregard of a visible, significant risk implies some predetermination and knowledge of the specific risk - the probability and outcome.
Negligence involves a failure in recognition - at the time; recklessness, a conscious disregard - intent, before the event.
Hindsight is a cruel weapon, but one which often backfires on those who judge.
"The
hindsight bias is not about history and not a bias. Rather it is about controlling the future. Or, more specifically, about giving oneself the perception of being able to control the future." S Dekker