One can only guess if the low level and surface winds had any impact on the aircraft involved, which factor could possibly have been a negative one in the conditions leading to the crash.
The nearest surface weather-measuring site to the crash site, is at Melville Water, at Inner Dolphin Pylon.
This weather-measuring point is about 2kms from the crash site, and would give a good indication of the surface winds on Perth Water. The crash occurred on the SE end of Perth Water.
Inner Dolphin Pylon
Melville Water is the next large stretch of open water in the Swan River, just downstream of the Narrows Bridge.
Perth Water is the open stretch of water opposite Perth city, where the Mallard was intending to land.
At the time of the crash (approx 17:00Hrs local time), the surface wind at Melville Water was from the SW at 12kts, gusting to 14 kts.
At the previous 16:30Hrs reading, the wind was WSW at 14kts, gusting to 17Kts - and at 17:30Hrs, the wind was from the SW at 11Kts, gusting to 13Kts.
Normally, in Summer, a strong SW sea breeze blows across Perth and its suburbs in the afternoons, usually appearing between 11:00Hrs and 14:00Hrs.
On Australia Day, because of a strong low pressure trough located over Perth city and suburbs, the sea breeze was very weak, resulting in only a very modest breeze.
The aircraft was initially heading approximately SE and banked around to the NE, which is when the stall/port wing drop, is first observable and highly noticeable.
This effectively means the aircraft would possibly have been flying SE with a very modest crosswind, but running into a very modest tailwind on the left turn.
It's entirely likely the left turn, which changed the airflow from crosswind to tailwind, along with reduced airspeed in the bank, led to the port wing stall, and the resultant unrecoverable situation.
Latest Capital City Observations Melville Water
A screenshot of the relevant Melville Water readings around the time of the crash. Unfortunately, a number of the measurements readings from this site, were inoperative at the time.
