Terry my dear chap - nobody is trying to be the AAIB and most of us have made that very clear. Are we all expected to have no opinion for the next 12 months?
We have some excellent restrained theories and observations, all made with the greatest respect. What on earth is wrong with surmising?
We have a 25 mile flight in a twin engined aircraft flown by a highly qualified pilot in dreadful weather which ended up in disaster. Perhaps we should discuss with the aforementioned respect. It may stop the same thing happening somewhere else.