There's little point in me trying to structure a counter argument because I've done it enough times to know it'll be shrugged off again by the "experts" but there are a few things I want to say
I'm confident Ryanair will make Madrid work, I could see maybe 1 of the Polish routes faltering but I'm sure they'll see growth in that area and from NCL in general. Although the option of connections in MAD would be nice, it's probably limited. Had Heathrow's 3rd runway gone the other way, I think we would have seen IAG starting to use MAD and DUB more for UK regional flights.
I'm sure we'll get Iceland one day be it Icelandair, Wow, easyjet or Thomson. Maybe Jet2 or Ryanair if they open it. There's no service between Manchester and Edinburgh.
It's been said before on here, our Bergamo flights went out full, they did well, but then Ryanair got Manchester slots, so we lost it. They started MAN-BGY the week after they pulled NCL-BGY with the same days of operation, timings etc. An all too common trend from here.
Re: Star Alliance loyalty in the North east, when I flew NCL-DUS-NCL on my way to China, (seriously, always look at LH from NCL on long haul if you need to travel, they have amazing deals, I paid £290 to Shanghai), on both flights I heard more than 1 conversation about people keeping up their silver/gold star alliance status.
If you think about it, there are very few options for non stop transatlantic flights currently. The vast majority are on US legacies, which is why it's difficult for airports like NCL to cut the mustard. When that changes, we will stand more of a chance. Why is it bad that people want a transatlantic service?
Manchester and moreso Edinburgh are going to be NCL's main problem, or downfall in the next few years. Airlines and passengers are fickle...
NCL has been behind UK growth for a lot of years, we're a strong and established airport and as far as I'm aware we are profitable. That must be a good thing... And hopefully means over the next few years there'll be room to take some measured risks, offer airlines nice incentives, grow markets and further establish our passenger base. I'd like to see better connections from Cumbria, Teesside, Northumberland etc.