FlyingForFun
I don't have the experience of actual cases to add to this thread, but your Example #2 is a pretty serious example of how careful a PPL-only pilot has to be with the TAFs. No flying if the forecast cloudbase is anywhere near the MSA. In that situation I would call 121.5 immediately I established there is no suitable airfield close.
Of course, getting the IMCR/IR and keeping current is the proper way to do this
But even then one cannot fly a non-deiced plane if the freezing level is at/below the MSA unless the clouds are scattered or better...
You could come up with lots of scenarios like this which a pilot could get into, and which aren't clear cut. It would not suprise me if the content of a TAF discovered on the PIC's corpse affected an insurer's view of matters, for example...