After all the upgrade programs over the years exactly what part of the F111 is 'old'?
The 'no threat for 15 years' and 'they are getting old/expensive' arguments are, IMHO, just justifications for getting rid of them for short term financial gain.
As Indonesia continues to unravel, leaving in it's wake ample opportunities for Fundamentalist Islam to attempt, through violence, to create a Fundamentalist Pan Islamic State, we will be rueing the day we let the Pigs capabilities go.
The Indonesian archepelego has 1000s of little islands where terrorist training camps quite possibly already exist and I believe Australia will need the capability to strike those on an adhoc basis in the not to distant future. Before we are hit by them in this post 911 world.
Having said that if the Pigs do go, and lets face it real politic always seems to win, what's wrong with F15E as a replacement? Why does Australia always have to go with the untried replacement for aircraft, submarines etc.
A fleet of F15D & E would replace the F18s/111s with some savings in pilot costs etc, etc.
The Indons/Malaysians are getting Migs with all sorts of payload/ range, performance etc....kind of doubt it is with Thailand in mind!
The JSF is FUGLY.
Buy proven, top quality...and/or keep the Pigs.
Chuck