Janey, I believe there are two ATOL's. One for flight only sales through the 'Monarch.co.uk' website under the umbrella of First Aviation, and another for packaged sales under 'Cosmos/Monarch Holidays'.
Monarch flight only sales are ATOL protected if ex-UK.
True. There are 2 Atols, but if Cosmos (trading as Monarch Holidays) can't renew then there will be no package sales available.
Yes, the first flight has to originate in the UK to be protected but obviously the inbound is protected when booked all on one ticket.