It has already been stated that the first QF 787 sectors (on sale in December supposedly), will be an existing route, as would be common sense to get used to the new type. With new routes being announced afterward.
Economically, you'd have to say MEL - DFW would be higher on the priority list than Direct London. So I'd expect that or something else new to come beforehand, but I wouldn't be surprised if Perth Direct London followed shortly after. Especially seeing the GC route between the two is practically the same (yes, I realise routings over the Middle East and Europe are not as good as the flex tracks over the pacific, but still, should be within the capabilities, if on the limits, of a 230-240 seat 787).
This of course would necessitate Customs and immigration in an INTL section of the Qantas/former Domestic terminal.
Yep, lets not forget the part they are talking about converting (the part inherited from Virgin) was for many years Perth's International terminal anyway. Back to the future!!
It sits
very empty and idle for most of the week. I could see having all of the QF group international flights hubbing through there as a great idea.
Push all of the QF, JQ and Qlink stuff into the current domestic side and link all that regional and domestic feed straight into the current QF group International services: At present count these will be Two daily QF 737's to Singapore (probably larger aircraft when they become available as the single daily flights have been fairly popular load wise so far), a seasonal Auckland A330, Two daily Jetstar Asia Singapore Directs, and three to four JQ Aus Bali services. All of which are currently fairly evenly spread throughout the day slot wise. This should, with the addition of a few 787 services direct to a few places further afield (LHR and hopefully others HKG, maybe JNB etc) at appropriate times, provide adequate economic justification and utilisation for a small stand alone facility without overcrowding it too badly.
That is at least until Perth Airport Management start the next phase of the combined terminal precinct over at the international side. Something that is still around a decade away.
In terms of economic load factors going LHR direct, with QF 787s being fitted out with supposedly 235 seats, 70-80 of those being Business and Premium Economy, your 60%ish break-even load factor kicks in at around 140-150 odd pax (crude maths yes, but try to ignore semantics at this stage of what is merely pure speculation).
Other than Perth, with 2 million+ people, theres another 500000 in greater WA, many of those within a 3 to 4hr drive or a maximum 2.5 hr flight.
Add this to; Adelaide~ 1.3 million
Canberra~ 0.5million
Alice and Darwin~ 200k
So there is around 4.5 million people who
could potentially provide a base market for these services. Also, lets not forget that supposedly over 200,000 people in Perth were born in the UK. Add to that the attractiveness of what of a single (i think slightly quicker 16hr or so?), hop in the opposite direction for 9 odd million in Greater London alone (64 million in the UK), who may be tourists, business folk or friends and family visiting… so before we event count the feed from other east coast Aussie Cities, QF could possibly do very well out of this.
Certainly, putting 150 bums on board each day out of Perth, Adelaide and Canberra alone, is entirely plausible. You'd only need 10 or 20 pax out of each of BNE, SYD, MEL, who don't mind the long sector, or who want to support an Australian carrier (or avoid the Middle East), along with a bit of freight at 10 or so bucks a kilo and theres some nice profitable icing on the cake.
That would be correct provided Qantas can secure the slots at Heathrow
I believe QF currently still have 5 Heathrow slots?? They were never let go of, merely on lease to BA whilst not needed. Second hand info though.