Originally Posted by
evansb
There is no such thing as a 100% safe manned aircraft either. Otherwise, actuary tables would reflect a significantly reduced risk..
I predict unmanned jet freighters between major terminals by 2027. Unmanned semi-trucks (lorries) are ready to roll in temperate climates on undemanding routes. Unmanned 1-mile long freight trains without cabooses already exist.. Yes, the trains and lorries will operate in a protected, somewhat predictive and controlled environment, but the precedent has been set..unfortunately.
Unmanned passenger airliners? Probably never. Public perception, public relations, liability issues and corporate images just might outweigh the slickness and efficiency of automation.
Surely we all want a "Captain", even on the highly computerized (pre floppy disk era) Starship NCC-1701 Enterprise...don't we?
This is more of an emotional argument, that the SLF require the comfort blanket of a crew at the front, or they will be unwilling to fly. This despite the fact that the crew only perhaps control the lift off and then don't touch the controls until after the aircraft is slowing from its CAT IIIb autoland (used as crews are not capable of sufficient safe accuracy).
The human-on-the-loop systems of today are close to autonomous. The crew are there to take over in the 'otherwise' cases that are expensive to design and certify. But the cost of the crew is increasing and the otherwise cases are being solved in military systems - yes at the cost of attrition in the learning environment - but now solved.
All UAS are required to be autonomous for the occasions when the control link fails. In Lost Link operations by definition the recoveries are autonomous.
There is no extra
technology or problem with changing normal freight for SLF, just a psychological boundary and for the regulators more certification testing. Validation and verification testing will already have been carried out for the military operations so the extra certification testing should not prove too challenging just long.
It is the psychological boundary that is difficult, especially for those with a vested interest in retaining their front row seat.