Sam Ting Wong
You are correct in that I cannot prove the training ban is having an effect of $10billion.
From 1990-2015 the average growth rate was 5.6%. This period included The Asian Contagion, 9-11, SARS, GFC and Swine Flu.
The year before the training ban we grew at 5%. The year after it was introduced we shrunk by 0.7%. We are giving 4 extra aircraft to KA next year which equates to shrinkage of about 2.7%.
So yes, I think I can categorically say the TB is having an effect. I think I can further say that two years(2015/2016) of almost zero growth, vs long term average of 5.6%, equates to a 'missed opportunity' of over 10% more revenue.
There will always be applicants - the current problem is getting them trained. I have heard the recruitment target was lowered by over a 100 this year due inadequate training resources. Ironically, as I have shown in the past, hiring DEFOs in a training constrained system is better for those already employed but not yet Captains as it leads to quicker commands!
I have shown in the past that management spent approx $10 for every $1 they 'saved' in the disputes of 1999 and 2001. It's unfortunate that we have come to a situation where the pilots are standing up for themselves against a corporate culture that would rather diminish returns than be seen to acquiesce!
The TB is having an effect - unfortunately the 'pain' is being felt by both sides. But I would ask you, what is the alternative?