I'm not looking for a specific answer, I assure you. I'm simply trying to understand the huge discrepancy between what's being said here and what I see amongst people I know. It's very hard to decide which to believe.
If what you're saying is that I'm unlikely to ever get a job, then fine - I will build that into my overall assessment of what to do. But I can't simply ignore the fact that I've seen people succeed - that should also be part of my assessment.