Russians have now been advised not to visit Turkey as its unsafe. To reinforce it Natali, their equivalent of Thomson Holidays has pulled all Turkish holiday packages.
Russia would have to do this, before taking action. They have about 50,000 holidaymakers in Antalya and Alanya, and would have to evacuate them first.
Once they are all out, Putin can act at will. Russia is not dependent on Turkey for anything, and Turkey is not exactly strategically important. The US has a large airbase in the east of Turkey, but they are hardly the best of mates, and could always relocate to Cyprus. The EU regarded Turkey as a possible member, but came under a barrage of opposition and has effectively shelved that proposal. Turkey is a NATO member, but always on the fringe. I cannot see NATO comming to the aid of Turkey, especially when they were responsible for the problem in the first place.
The result is that Russia will only back down if Erdogan grovels an apology. But anyone who knows Turkey will realise that Erdogan cannot and will not apologise for anything. There is no such word in the Turkish language. So there will be a diplomatic and military stand-off that will simmer and escallate for a few weeks or more, before things turn sour. And Turkey will eventually regret its intransigence. It will lose out economically, and military, but Erdogan will still revel in the deteriorating situation and portray himself as the victim (as they always do) - with an uncaring world against him.
As I said, popcorn futures are rising rapidly.
ST