Wiggy I'd agree with you if instead of '10-12', you'd said '15-17'. A 10-12 year in pilot has no chance of a long haul command within the next 5 years. Yes there is expansion, yes there are people bidding for part time, yes there are EASA FTLs, and yes people are going to start retiring but seriously? In my last simulator, I had two Captains telling me I'd have a long haul command within two years and that I was being pessimistic. When I asked them had they actually looked at the age demographics versus seniority numbers... Well, you can guess the reply.
More likely, those 10-12 year in FOs have looked at the work patterns at the bottom of the Airbus seniority and have decided they would rather have a life.