I'm not sure about confidential. Having said that, I don't have specific numbers although they will probably be available somewhere. Yes, there's a bulge coming. All the pilots who stayed on over 55 when the retirement age initially changed start hitting 65 fairly shortly so there will be quite a bit of movement at the top of the pile. Couple this to increasing numbers applying for and achieving part-time and changes due to EASA FTLs and there will be a lot of recruitment going on for some time.
The bad news is for anyone joining now who wants a longhaul command. There is a second bulge, who are the "cadets" who joined during the nineties. Many of those who joined in the early nineties have had their longhaul commands for a few years now - and the youngest of them are in their early forties so have twenty years plus remaining. Those who joined in the late nineties are just coming into the frame now and are in their late thirties to early forties so again, there will be little movement for twenty to twenty five years for those people. Between them, they will occupy the top eight hundred or so of the seniority list for the longer term.
If you're joining aged under 30, you should make P1 LH. Over 30, possibly not. Depends how many of those above go part time.
Last edited by Tay Cough; 20th Oct 2015 at 18:24.
Reason: Just realised I duplicated most of Wiggy's post. Still, he knows what he's talking about. When are you retiring? ;)