Copenhagen Route Analysis/Views
On the surface it looks like the Luton to Copenhagen route is doing very well with both Ryanair and easyJet:
In August, 36,260 passengers flew the route, making it the fifth busiest route at the airport.
From what I can make out, in August there was 46,212 seats available on the route and this gives an average load factor for both airlines as 78.46%. Which is very good for such a new route, and the sheer number of seats being flooded into a new market.
However you need to also bear in mind that easyJet and Ryanair saw average load factors of 94-95% across their networks in August, so this is still some way off these sort of numbers.
(Seat numbers in August is based upon the below workings:
Ryanair had 23,426 seats available on the route based upon 124 rotations using the Boeing 737-800 seating 189 passengers.
With them flying the route twice daily in both directions, seven days a week.
easyJet had 22,776 seat available on the routebased upon 146 rotations using the Airbus A319 seating 156 passengers.
With them flying the route three times daily on weekdays and twice daily at weekends in both directions.
If easyJet happen to use the 180 seater A320 on any of the LTN-CPH route the number of available seats will be higher and above mwntioned load factor will be lower.)
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I am not as confident as others this demand and number of flights will last or even be sustainable in the long term.
Both Ryanair and easyJet are benefitting from substantial discounts or incentives from Copenhagen Airport, to operate this "new" routes. These discounts were not made available on routes to other London airports, as they already had routes to Copenhagen operating.
With easyJet now pulling the plug on their Stansted route to Copenhagen, I think it is only a matter of time, once the incentives run out, Ryanair will switch the route to Stansted.
As Copenhagen will soon no longer be a Ryanair base, it makes far more sense from a logistical point to base the route where the airline has 40+ aircraft based, rather than operating it all with the 4 737's at Luton.
With the exception on Dublin, Ryanair has an awful track record at Luton, for operating multi-daily frequency flights. We have seen Milan-Bergamo, Stockholm Vaasteras and Gerona all come and go, or be completely scaled back.
Also before Luton even started offering flights to Copenhagen, easyJet have only been able to offer a daily frequency from Stansted in the past. In a year or twos time, I think we will see once or twice daily frequencies on the route from Luton, with easyJet and Ryanair will be no to be seen on the route from the airport.
Prices will also likely bea lot more realistic with lead in fares at £30+ and NOT £10!
It is not just Ryanair, you also need to need to look at easyJet's recent track on multiple daily frequency flights on routes they have launched, and wound them back in from operating 3-4 times a day to either single or twice daily routes. Routes that spring to mind are, Barcelona, Madrid, Lisbon, Rome, Milan, Berlin, Dortmund, Zurich, etc...