You and a few others have been very consistent in your views re some parts of the Lgw operation, especially long haul.
The BA Beach Fleet makes rather good money apparently, focussed on high end point to point leisure, only up against one other direct competitor in that space in VS and with TOM and TCX in the charter space. Good Gatwick fit, predominantly holiday flights.
On another forum there is a discussion running on the topic of BA transferring both the Orlando and Tampa flights to Lhr, on the basis that would be a much better result.
It might make a difference to the bottom line, yields might be higher, but if they're predominantly P2P and doing well at LGW and moving to LHR wouldn't add to connectivity or make much more profit then there's no pressing need. If BA need to pile more aircraft into LHR to maintain market share with a third runway, that dynamic changes. The cost benefits of consolidating at one long haul base now have a pressing need to defend the postion at LHR as well and so a move might be more likely if and when we see new concrete.
So is it being suggested that BA are flying to Orlando 2 daily and losing or not making much money?
Noooooo, it's long haul P2P leisure filled with no / little need for feed, a holiday flight fitting the LGW profile rather well.
So are we suggesting that the American carriers flew into Lgw and were making no/very little money.
Adam Thomson and Richard Branson, as well as Laker himself were prevented from operating from LHR and kept at LGW for a reason, to protect BA at LHR where the yields were higher. SRB admits VS would have gone under after 1991 if they had not been granted LHR access that year after the first Gulf War. They moved their US hub operations to LHR as well as prime business destinations like NRT. The Beach Fleet routes were introduced later, MCO and the Carribean have no pressing need to move as the Upper Class cabin is way smaller on the LGW B744s. (It's 14C versus 48C out of LHR). Again, good LGW fit in long haul leisure, no feed required.
The US carriers were legacy network carriers feeding their own hubs. Each has served LGW and LHR, indeed DL,US, NW and CO operated dual ops after 2008. As soon as they compared XYZ-LHR with XYZ-LGW, the LGW operation was dropped. Immediately with American, after one season with CO and NW and much later with US and DL. The end result was that however well they'd done at LGW, US-LON ops were better served out of LHR and flying out of LGW was diluting yield. The ongoing LGW-JFK with BA was the lowest yielding of the multiple LON-NYC flights they flew, this was made semi public as certain people were fed up being asked "But why don't you bring back LGW-JFK?" (for a fourth try!)
Different fit in this case, larger paid for premium cabins used in this market and serving airports with connections to partner airlines via US hubs. This sits better at LHR.
And no I don't agree that if the new runway goes to Lgw that airlines will go elsewhere. They will be in in a flash in spite of what they say. Because the truth is, long haul out of Gatwick does make money for the most, just not as much as some greedy airlines would like.
What airlines are you thinking of? Long haul hubs with partners, LGW has no alliance connectivity whatsoever. SKYTEAM are strong at LHR T4 and hub at AMS/CDG, STAR use LHR T2 and hub at FRA / ZRH. Genuine question, what airlines will be in there in a flash? LHR runway three might be filled up overnight but the churn in newcomers will be huge before it settles down. There's not that many long haul carriers in a queue to serve London.
I can think of LAN Chile, Aerolineas Argentinas as newcomers.
easyJet would certainly have a go, unlikely to see Ryanair. Norwegian Air Shuttle might have a crack at both long and short haul if they're still around.
But the list of new realistic and likely new entrants is not enormous. The existing carriers would l-ove to drop in new destinations but again, it would year likely be organic over a 8-10 year period rather before things settle.
The big (quiet) opportunity seldom talked about is going after the lines of B747Fs and B777Fs that AMS, CDG and FRA have.