Wiggy
I think you are right about expansion, and that a lot of guys over 55 will choose to retire in the near future. (They've been lucky and have enjoyed a windfall of an extra x number of years as a Captain compared to what they were expecting just a few years before the age legislation changes). However, whilst these factors will help out a lot of senior FOs, it won't get down to the likes of my seniority. At that point, things will freeze up again for a very long time. These new Captains have had their commands denied them for x number of years and they'll want to have those x years back. I therefore predict the majority will stay well beyond 55 all over again. All the talk from BALPA during the BMI deal about loads of expansion etc. does indeed help out a certain number of senior FOs. However, after that, it's just waiting for dead mans shoes all over again. A lot of people failed to appreciate that point at the time, and BALPA chose not to point it out because it suited their cause. I'm very confident that I'll not achieve the seniority for a long haul command until over 20 years in, and probably close to 25.
But I appreciate the thought :o)